Blockchain Papers

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501 papersLast indexed Aug 31, 2026
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Aug 13, 2026¡Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
0 cites
Natural Economic Wealth — Paper 15 From Model to Simulation: Software Architecture for the Qoin Economy's Dynamic Network

Steven Kelsey

Paper 14 gives an analytical model of the Qoin economy as a dynamic network: node balances that rise and fall with local creation and consumption events, a physical de- livery graph those events populate, and closed-form results for adoption, topology, and resilience under stated assumptions. Those results are the model’s skeleton. This pa- per is discursive rather than mathematical: it asks what would actually need to be built to give that skeleton stochastic life, test its assumptions, and check its closed-form predictions against simulated behaviour — before any of it touches a real deployment. Five requirements follow directly from Paper 14’s own structure, not from any new modelling choice. The event log is not an implementation detail but the correct primary data structure, because Paper 14 already defines node balance as a derived quantity rather than stored state — the model specifies event sourcing whether or not the word is used. The simulation engine should be discrete-event rather than continuous, because every quantity in the model changes at a point in time, not continuously. Node arrival, edge formation, and lifecycle-window realisation are three distinct stochastic processes, each with its own calibration target, and should not be collapsed into one undifferentiated source of randomness. Calibrating the model against reality requires specific, nameable data that does not yet exist, and the paper says exactly what that data would need to be. And nothing built should be trusted beyond what Paper 14 already proves analytically until it reproduces those proofs first. This paper does not specify the real distributed ledger of Paper 1, does not perform any calibration (no pilot data exists), and does not address deployment, production, or user-facing engineering. It specifies a research instrument for studying the dynamics, nothing more.

Open access
2 source records
Modeling, Simulation, and Optimization
Mobile Agent-Based Network Management
Economic theories and models
Original source
Aug 13, 2026¡Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
0 cites
Natural Economic Wealth — Paper 14 Network Dynamics of the Qoin Economy: Adoption, Topology, and Resilience

Steven Kelsey

Papers 12 and 13 establish, in prose, that the Qoin economy grows through voluntary adoption driven by a structural incentive (the double remuneration asymmetry) and a self-reinforcing network effect, and that its distributed ledger architecture protects it from institutional destruction. Both claims are narrative. Neither is modelled. This paper treats the Qoin economy as what it already is beneath the ledger’s bookkeep- ing: agents with a local Qoin balance that rises on wealth creation and falls on wealth consumption, connected by a dynamic graph recording the physical delivery of wealth between them — not a payment network in which Qoin itself moves along edges, but closer to a reaction network, in which local state changes are triggered by relationships the graph records. Node arrival is the boundary event of Paper 12; edge arrival is each completed delivery. Three results follow. First, the qualitative adoption story of Papers 12–13 is a Bass diffusion process: an ordinary differential equation with a derivable S-curve, an inflec- tion point, and two coefficients — one tied to the unconditional attribution advantage available to currently unmonetised creators, the other to the compounding profile ad- vantage of existing participants. Second, profile-based selection (Paper 3, Paper 4) is a preferential-attachment mechanism, and preferential attachment produces heavy-tailed, plausibly scale-free degree distributions — which carries a specific, testable consequence: such networks are robust to random node loss but fragile to targeted removal of high- degree hubs. This bears directly and unfavourably on the claim, made in Paper 13, that the ledger’s technical decentralisation protects the Qoin economy from institutional at- tack: the ledger and the delivery network built on top of it are different graphs, and only one of them has been shown to be attack-resistant. Third, Paper 6’s community-bounded federation is, in network terms, a modularity-preserving design choice, and modularity is precisely the structural property that bounds the damage a targeted attack on one community can do to the others. This paper is analytical throughout: closed-form and asymptotic results, not simulation or empirical calibration against real Marketplace data. That is deliberately left as the next piece of work.

Open access
2 source records
Digital Platforms and Economics
Economic theories and models
Global Urban Networks and Dynamics
Original source
Aug 1, 2026¡Journal of Economics and Business Letters
0 cites
How far and how fast could Bitcoin fall?

Chung Baek

Because Bitcoin typically exhibits higher volatility than traditional assets, evaluating and managing its risk is essential. We estimate Bitcoin’s potential maximum drawdowns (MDDs) using Monte Carlo simulations based on a stochastic jump process and assess the likelihood of substantial declines in the coming years. Based on our results, the simulation results suggest that an MDD of at least 60% is highly probable within three to four years, while an MDD of at least 70% appears plausible within five years. Moreover, our sensitivity analysis indicates that the MDD of Bitcoin is most strongly influenced by jump intensity. These results offer critical insights for market participants seeking to analyze Bitcoin’s downside risk and formulate strategies to navigate potential market downturns.

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Digital Platforms and Economics
Economic theories and models
Original source
Jul 1, 2026¡Fundamental Research
0 cites
Bitcoin price extremes and implications for financial regulation

Li Chen, Difang Huang, Shouyang Wang

Cryptocurrency regulation faces a fundamental mismatch between static rules and rapidly transforming markets. We demonstrate that Bitcoin alternates between bounded and unbounded price regimes, requiring adaptive rather than uniform regulatory frameworks. Using extreme value theory on over a decade of Bitcoin data, we show that tail risk characteristics switch between finite-limit and heavy-tailed regimes, with profound implications for investor protection, capital requirements, and systemic risk management. Traditional approaches either overregulate during stable periods or underprotect during volatile regimes. We propose regime-contingent regulatory frameworks that automatically adjust oversight intensity based on statistical detection of tail risk characteristics. Backtesting over 2016–2025 demonstrates that the adaptive framework reduces average capital requirements by 79% overall and by 84% during bounded regimes while escalating protections before major crashes, outperforming static Basel III-style rules. Robustness analyses across multiple window lengths (90, 180, 365, and 730 days), thresholds, and bootstrap specifications confirm that regime-switching is a persistent structural feature of Bitcoin markets. Implementation requires international coordination, transparent methodology, and clear adjustment protocols.

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Economic, financial, and policy analysis
Economic theories and models
Original source
Jun 18, 2026¡Business, management and economics
0 cites
The Myth of Decentralized Money: Can Cryptocurrencies Replace Central Bank Monetary Policy?

Basma Almisshal

The advent of decentralized cryptocurrencies has reignited fundamental debates in monetary economics about the nature and future of money. Proponents of digital currencies argue that decentralized, algorithmically governed assets can supplant central banks in managing monetary conditions and stabilizing economic outcomes. This chapter critically examines this proposition by evaluating cryptocurrencies against the classical functions of money and the core instruments of monetary policy. Grounded in monetary theory – from Friedman’s monetarism and Mises’ Austrian framework to Modern Monetary Theory – and extended through a behavioral finance lens, the analysis reveals that widespread belief in cryptocurrency as a viable monetary policy alternative is driven not merely by technological innovation but by deeply embedded cognitive biases, including overconfidence, narrative-driven speculation, and institutional distrust. The chapter also treats money as an economic asset subject to market competition. Drawing on Austrian economic theory and classical competition principles, the analysis evaluates whether decentralized currencies can realistically compete with sovereign money in an open monetary market. By integrating monetary economics with strategic competition frameworks, the chapter explores whether cryptocurrencies can achieve monetary dominance through efficiency, cost advantages, or differentiated value propositions. Based on principles from strategic business theories such as differentiation and cost-leadership, the chapter treats money as a competitive good subject to market dynamics, ultimately concluding that while cryptocurrencies represent a significant financial innovation, they fundamentally lack the institutional architecture and behavioral predictability required to replace central bank monetary policy.

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Economic theories and models
Security, Politics, and Digital Transformation
Original source
Jun 15, 2026¡Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
0 cites
Virtual-Real Hedging: Reshaping the Monetary Standard through a Dual Value System to Return to the Origin of Exchange

Pige Li

Abstract The modern single monetary real-value system suffers from long-term monetary alienation. Currency has evolved from a transaction tool into the ultimate target of wealth pursuit, triggering structural economic and social problems including capital hoarding, wealth polarization, economic involution, and class solidification. Based on the theoretical framework of The Symbiotic Order 1.0, this paper proposes a virtual-real dual-value hedging system consisting of currency and points. Without abolishing the existing monetary system or denying market division of labor and competition, the system establishes a positive-negative mirrored balance mechanism through the zero neutralization rule. The reverse hedging of currency income/expenditure and point increment/decrement eliminates the infinite hoarding attribute of currency and restores currency to its original instrumental positioning as a transaction medium. The system adopts a dual-track operation mechanism: the external monetary track encourages incremental economic expansion, technological progress and cultural export to maintain market vitality; the internal virtual-real hedging track reconstructs the allocation logic of stock resources and fundamentally restrains stock games and capital monopoly. Supported by basic point rules and cryptography technologies including homomorphic encryption and zero-knowledge proof, the system realizes rigid technical operation and avoids arbitrage by capital or power. This paper clarifies the institutional logic of competition motivation, verifying that the system corrects alienated monetary accumulation competition into original competition centered on experience right exchange, value creation and spiritual transcendence, rather than suppressing innovation and competition. Finally, it reflects on the institutional limitations and implementation thresholds. As a practical and targeted correction scheme for the dual contemporary dilemmas of capital concentration and nuclear deterrence deadlock, the system will become the optimal institutional choice when social predicaments reach critical thresholds. Key words: Symbiotic Order; virtual-real hedging; dual value system; monetary alienation; economic involution; institutional equilibrium

Open access
2 source records
Economic theories and models
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Securities Regulation and Market Practices
Original source
Jun 2, 2026¡Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
0 cites
Bitcoin as a Thermodynamically Enforced Nash-Equilibrium Monetary System

Stephan Hueffer

This preprint develops a unified thermodynamic and game-theoretic framework for the analysis of monetary systems, with particular focus on Bitcoin as a proof-of-work-based digital monetary architecture. The work combines concepts from thermodynamics, information theory, game theory, monetary economics, and econophysics to investigate how monetary systems may be understood as coordination systems operating under informational, institutional, and physical constraints. The manuscript introduces a distinction between monetary entropy, associated with uncertainty in monetary issuance, layered claims, and purchasing-power instability, and physical entropy generated through irreversible energy dissipation in proof-of-work systems. Building on this distinction, the concept of monetary temperature is proposed and operationalized through purchasing-power volatility and related coordination variables. Within this framework, Bitcoin is interpreted as a thermodynamically enforced Nash-equilibrium system in which strategic stability is constrained through irreversible physical cost. Comparative analysis of Bitcoin, gold, and fiat monetary systems suggests that monetary architectures can be understood as evolving entropy-management architectures adapted to different technological and civilizational conditions. Finally, the paper proposes an evolutionary interpretation of monetary history in which monetary systems function as mechanisms for stabilizing large-scale human cooperation under increasing informational complexity. Monetary evolution is interpreted as a cooling process in which declining volatility corresponds to increasing coordination maturity and stabilization across expanding economic networks. Keywords: Bitcoin, thermodynamics, Nash equilibrium, monetary entropy, entropy-management architectures, proof-of-work, econophysics, monetary systems, monetary temperature, game theory.

Open access
2 source records
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Economic theories and models
Original source
May 31, 2026¡Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
0 cites
The Revaluation of Bitcoin Miners: Right Time, Right Place

Marc Aliaga Borras

By chance or by destiny, Bitcoin mining companies have found themselves with a golden opportunity in their hands: they possess the most scarce asset of the 21st century—energy. Something similar happened back in the mid-19th century, railroad companies acquired millions of acres of land and rights-of-way strictly to lay down train tracks with the main idea of a business fundamentally focused on physical transportation. However, when the telegraph was invented, they realized that the optimal location to deploy electrical communication lines was right alongside those very train tracks. They already possessed the cleared terrain, the physical security, and the legal rights-of-way. And as we have seen, the structural mispricing identified in this thesis represents a finite, high-velocity arbitrage window. Where currently, Wall Street's evaluation models remain anchored to old crypto-mining frameworks, valuing these entities on cyclical hash-rate economics rather than the long-duration infrastructure value of their underlying energized grid connections.

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Economic theories and models
Cryptography and Data Security
Original source
May 1, 2026¡Entropy
1 cites
Landauer-Based Economic Temperature in Blockspace Markets: Evidence from Bitcoin and Ethereum

Michael Zouari, Ilan Alon, Ze’ev Shtudiner

The Landauer principle motivates the definition of economic temperature as the monetary price of processing a bit irreversibly. No empirical test of this definition exists in transparent fee markets. This paper fills that gap using daily Bitcoin and Ethereum data, constructing canonical thermodynamic state variables and evaluating five diagnostic layers: state variable behavior, Maxwell-type integrability, Carnot-style efficiency bounds, nonlinear regime separation, and structural break sensitivity to protocol events. Bitcoin's log-temperature behaves as a persistent mean-reverting process with an AR(1) coefficient of 0.97 and a half-life of 21 days; Ethereum is highly persistent, with weaker formal evidence of stationarity than Bitcoin. Maxwell integrability is frequency-dependent: Bitcoin passes all four relations at monthly frequency, whereas Ethereum passes two of four. Carnot-style evidence is the strongest: realized fee extraction efficiency stays well below the implied bound, with daily compliance exceeding 97% on both chains. Structural breaks around Bitcoin ordinals, EIP-1559, the merge, and Shanghai confirm that protocol changes reorganize the temperature relation. The thermodynamic framework provides structure that standard fee market analysis does not, including a first principles efficiency bound and a state space coherence test. The findings provide partial, frequency-dependent, and chain-specific empirical support for a Landauer-based thermodynamic description of blockspace markets.

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Economic theories and models
Original source
Apr 28, 2026¡arXiv (Cornell University)
0 cites
The Financialization of Proof-of-Stake: Asymptotic Centralization under Exogenous Risk Premiums

Mikhail Perepelitsa

This paper introduces a heterogeneous macroeconomic model of a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) network to analyze the long-term centralizing effects of external traditional finance (TradFi) yields. We model a continuum of rational actors divided into two distinct classes: investors, who optimize portfolios between staking and external variance-dominated investments, and consumers, who balance staking yields against the transactional utility of holding liquid assets. By employing a quasi-linear utility function to model consumer behavior, we derive a cubic polynomial that strictly defines the unique macroeconomic equilibrium of the coupled network. The model demonstrates that, at scale, external macroeconomic factors force the complete institutional capture of the PoS consensus layer. Because investors have access to external risk premiums, their wealth compounds exponentially, leading to massive capital inflows that crush the protocol's internal staking yield to effectively zero. We show that as the yield is crushed, consumer wealth becomes strictly upper-bounded. Ultimately, consumers are forced to cease staking entirely and hold all remaining wealth in liquid form to satisfy their transactional constraints.

Open access
3 source records
Banking stability, regulation, efficiency
Economic theories and models
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Original source
Apr 2, 2026¡American Journal of Economics and Sociology
0 cites
Web3 and Demurrage Money

George Lovegrove

ABSTRACT This article explores the application of demurrage money, a concept developed by Silvio Gesell, into Web3. Demurrage money, designed to discourage the hoarding of currency and prevent economic stagnation and concentrations in wealth, offers a potential remedy for the problems of traditional fiat and gold‐backed monetary systems. The article presents an overview of Web3, highlighting its core principles such as being decentralized, permissionless, community governed, and programmable. It critiques the limitations of current Web3 cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin and other networks that have emerged since. By design these networks enable excessive asset storage and face sustainability challenges such as governance centralization and inadequate ecosystem funding. The article proposes that the implementation of a network coin tax, as a form of demurrage, would help to incentivize productive economic activity, decentralize coin ownership, provide reliable funding for node operators and ecosystem development and create opportunities for large‐scale public goods funding. Various monetary supply models are discussed, evaluating their compatibility with demurrage systems. The article concludes that demurrage based economic systems could lead to more resilient, equitable and sustainable Web3 ecosystems that have significant potential for making a global societal impact.

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Economic, financial, and policy analysis
Economic theories and models
Original source
Mar 27, 2026¡Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
0 cites
Natural Economic Wealth Paper 1: Distributed Attribution and Immutable Record in a Physically Grounded Economy

Steve Kelsey

This paper derives, from first principles, the architecture of the distributed public ledger that forms the operational core of the Natural Economic Wealth (NEW) framework. The ledger is not a financial instrument, a blockchain token system, or an accounting convention. It is the informational substrate through which the direct attribution of algorithmic execution to its directing intelligence is operationally realised. The physical justication for the ledger's immutability is the Second Law: algorithmic executions are thermodynamically irreversible, and their record must be equally so. The ledger closes the cybernetic loop between measurement and agent, records wealth creation and consumtion events, enables a wealth profiling system, and constitutes the civilisational memory of all productive algorithmic execution within the framework. Community-governed federated architecture prevents centralisation and institutional capture. The Qoin unit is introduced and dened as the physical unit of account for ledger records. The marketplace description record the mechanism by which Qoin production gures are attached to ordered states entering the marketplace is introduced as a ledger-adjacent informational structure that enables the consumer selection pressure

Open access
2 source records
State Capitalism and Financial Governance
Economic theories and models
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Original source
Mar 24, 2026¡Journal of Post Keynesian Economics
5 cites
USD hegemony, bitcoin, Central Bank Digital Currency and the geopolitics of money

Samuele Bibi

Since World War II, the US dollar (USD) has substantially increased its prominence in international financial systems, culminating in its position as the predominant currency, facilitating approximately 90% of global foreign exchange transactions. The reliance of most nations on the USD for international trade - particularly for oil, commodities, and other goods - has cemented its critical role in global finance and geopolitics. Hence, the usage of the USD supported and forged an economic and geopolitical function for the emitting country, the United States of America. The geopolitical implications and risks related to the USD hegemonic power in trade and financial transactions have become increasingly more striking, especially in recent decades and years. The sanctions imposed on Venezuela, Iran and more recently on Russia via the US dollar-dominated SWIFT payment system highlighted the potential threat posed by the USD hegemonic power in the global monetary system. However, in the new millennium, alternative digital currencies have begun to exert influence and have implicitly and explicitly posed a threat to that hegemony. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, for instance, have enabled international transactions without reliance on USD use. Additionally, the emergence of several multi-currency Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) would allow nations to conduct cross-border payments using various currencies without passing through the USD as an intermediary. Our paper explores the geopolitical implications of USD use on the international stage and examines the potential opportunities and threats posed by these new digital currencies for countries.

Open access
2 source records
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Economic theories and models
Economic, financial, and policy analysis
Original source
Mar 17, 2026¡ArXiv.org
0 cites
On Debreu-Koopmans Theorem for Additively Decomposed Quasiconvex Functions with Applications

Felipe Lara

The Debreu Koopmans theorem restricts separable aggregation to at most one nonconvex component. We solve this by proving that a separable, additive or multiplicative, function is star quasiconvex, those with star shaped sublevel sets about minimizers, if and only if each component is star quasiconvex. This immediately yields star quasiconvexity of separable sums of quasiconvex functions, formally bridging diversification theory with the S shaped value functions of Prospect Theory. Furthermore, we develop a complete calculus, monotonic composition, pointwise minima, quasi arithmetic means, and we apply it to Cobb-Douglas functions, multifactor risk models, and constant function market makers in decentralized finance. Star quasiconvexity thus provides a unified framework for applications in optimization and economic modeling beyond the classical Debreu Koopmans constraint. The introduction discuss economic motivations.

Open access
3 source records
math.OC
Game Theory and Voting Systems
Economic theories and models
Original source
Mar 10, 2026¡Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
0 cites
Cryptocurrency and Financial Systems: Transformation, Risks, and Future Integration

Sofia Rahimbaksha Patel

Crypto currency has emerged as one of the most disruptive innovations in modern financial history. Beginning with the introduction of Bitcoin in 2009, decentralized digital currencies have challenged traditional financial systems by enabling peer-to-peer transactions without centralized intermediaries. This paper examines the impact of cryptocurrency on global financial systems, including banking, monetary policy, financial inclusion, cross-border payments, and regulatory structures. It explores both opportunities—such as decentralization, efficiency, and innovation—and risks, including volatility, regulatory uncertainty, financial crime, and systemic threats. The study also analyses the rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) and Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) as responses to the growing influence of blockchain-based financial models. The research concludes that while cryptocurrencies present transformative potential, their long-term integration into financial systems will depend on regulatory clarity, technological scalability, and macroeconomic stability.

Open access
2 source records
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Banking stability, regulation, efficiency
Economic theories and models
Original source
Jan 19, 2026¡Open MIND
0 cites
On the Convergence of Algorithmic Issuance and Thermodynamic Security: A Unified Regenerative Framework

Michiru Tokino

AbstractContemporary blockchain architectures face a critical impasse defined herein as the "Tetra-Lemma"—a four-dimensional optimization problem comprising decentralization, security, scalability, and thermodynamic sustainability. Proof-of-Work networks confront diminishing security budgets due to the exhaustion of block subsidies, while Proof-of-Stake systems risk validator centralization. This paper establishes a Unified Monetary-Supply Framework that resolves these structural conflicts by synthesizing the deterministic "Customized Halving" schedule with the probabilistic regeneration logic of the Proof of Rinne (PoR). We demonstrate that by enforcing a "Thermodynamic Statute of Limitations" on dormant assets, the protocol functions as a Non-Equilibrium Thermodynamic Engine. This architecture transforms entropic asset attrition—traditionally viewed as systemic loss—into a regenerative security budget. Using Rincoin as a case study, the model proves that a high-frequency blockchain can maintain a deflationary supply curve while anchoring the effective circulation at a permanent target equilibrium, offering a rigorous blueprint for a closed-loop, regenerative digital economy over a secular horizon. Key Quantitative Findings Asymptotic Convergence: While the effective circulating supply may experience a temporary peak (approx. 27 million RIN), the Dual-Layer Temporal Architecture ensures stabilization below the 21 million threshold (specifically converging to 20.88 million RIN). Perpetual Stability: Beyond the initial mining and transition phases (spanning 443–703 years), the PoR mechanism ensures the indefinite maintenance of the effective circulating supply. This transcends the finite lifecycle of traditional PoW assets by establishing a permanent, self-sustaining regenerative cycle. Thermodynamic Equilibrium: Mathematical verification of the "Golden Ratio" between Reserve, Unrecovered Loss, and Actual Circulation (approx. 77 : 70 : 21). Publication StatusThis manuscript (v1.6.1) serves as the foundational theoretical framework for the Rincoin protocol. Future iterations will formalize the consensus mechanisms required to govern these algorithmic parameters. Integrity & Provenance ArchitectureThe scientific integrity and existence of this document are secured by a Triple-Verification Layer: 1. Academic Provenance: Indexed via Zenodo (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17141922). 2. Thermodynamic Timestamping: Anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps. 3. Identity Assurance: Digitally signed by the author via a third-party certification authority (GMO Sign). Note: Verification data and the "Certificate of Authenticity" are available in the supplementary files. CorrespondencePrimary Author: Michiru Tokino (also known as Aevust in the decentralized infrastructure community). Academic Inquiries: edu@aevust.org Community Governance: @aevustus (Discord) / @aevust (X/Telegram) Keywords: Rincoin, Proof of Rinne (PoR), non-equilibrium thermodynamic engine, phase transition of value, dual-layer architecture, customized halving, thermodynamic statute of limitations, regenerative crypto-economics, blockchain tetra-lemma.

Open access
2 source records
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Economic theories and models
Cloud Computing and Resource Management
Original source
Jan 13, 2026¡International Finance
1 cites
Does Pegging Affect Market Efficiency? Assessing Long Memory in Stablecoin and Cryptocurrency Markets

Qing Yan, Lei Huang, Liang Wu

ABSTRACT Stablecoins attract academic interest because of their value‐pegging mechanisms and price stability. This likely results in distinct market efficiency. This study compares stablecoins (USDC, Tether, Dai) with Bitcoin and Ethereum and assesses long memory through the Hurst exponent while addressing distortions caused by heavy tails and extreme events. Through shuffled and rank‐order series with a sliding‐window approach, we provide the first reliable time‐varying analysis. The results show that stablecoins exhibit inefficiency and anti‐persistence, with Tether being relatively more efficient. Their tail properties are highly sensitive to extreme events. In contrast, Bitcoin and Ethereum maintain stable weak‐form efficiency even during the COVID‐19 pandemic. These differences are linked to stablecoins' US dollar pegging mechanisms and regulatory constraints. The findings of this study enable comparisons of market efficiency between stablecoins and unpegged cryptocurrencies and offer insights for regulation and investment decisions.

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Economic theories and models
Original source
Jan 1, 2026¡SSRN Electronic Journal
0 cites
Can Bitcoin Protect Against Inflation? A Case Study of Argentina and Turkey

Botirjon Rakhimov

Persistent double-digit inflation, sharp currency depreciation, and eroding confidence in domestic monetary institutions have led many households in emerging markets to search for assets outside the control of national authorities. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is frequently described as "digital gold" and a potential inflation hedge, yet empirical evidence remains mixed, particularly for chronically highinflation economies. This paper examines whether Bitcoin functions as an inflation hedge in Argentina and Turkey, two emerging markets characterized by persistent inflation, currency depreciation, and divergent cryptocurrency regulatory regimes, over the period January 2018 to August 2025. Using monthly data on local-currency Bitcoin returns, changes in inflation, and exchange-rate depreciation obtained from TradingEconomics.com, the study estimates baseline and extended Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regressions for each country. The baseline results show a statistically insignificant, negative relationship between inflation and Bitcoin returns in Turkey, and a small but statistically significant positive relationship in Argentina. Once exchange-rate depreciation and global Bitcoin returns are introduced as controls, the explanatory power of both models rises sharply (R² ≈ 0.99 in each country), while the coefficient on inflation becomes negligible and statistically insignificant in both cases. These findings suggest that Bitcoin behaves primarily as a currency-depreciation hedge and a vehicle tracking global cryptocurrency market sentiment, rather than as a direct hedge against domestic inflation. The results carry implications for investors, policymakers, and households evaluating Bitcoin's role in high-inflation, capital-constrained economies.

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Economic theories and models
Original source
Jan 1, 2026¡SSRN Electronic Journal
0 cites
A Theory of International Official Lending

Qing Liu, Zanhui Liu, Vivian Yue

Official lending is large, senior, and countercyclical, continuing after sovereigns fall into arrears on private debt. We ask why sovereign finance exhibits this division of labor across creditors. In a production economy where a risk-averse sovereign privately allocates imported inputs, commitment is limited on both sides, and monitoring generates a noisy signal, the constrained-optimal allocation is decentralized by defaultable private debt, senior nondefaultable multilateral debt, and concessional bilateral debt whose relief is tied to the signal. Production remains distorted, but the sovereign is never excluded: official lending is monitored liquidity provision. A calibration reproduces procyclical private and countercyclical official debt.

Open access
Global Financial Crisis and Policies
Economic Policies and Impacts
Economic theories and models
Original source
Jan 1, 2026¡SSRN Electronic Journal
0 cites
Facilitating credit is the most important function of Money: A role for Bitcoin?

Klaus JaffĂŠ

Money serves several roles: a medium of exchange to buy and sell without bartering; a unit of account to price goods consistently; a store of value to save purchasing power over time; a means to defer payment of future obligations like credit or loans. An agent based computer simulation program determine quantitatively the relative importance of these services. The main results showed that money for credit was by far the feature that achieved the largest overall production of wealth in the simulated societies. A conclusion from this study suggests that fomenting the use of internationally tradable currencies such as Bitcoin seems to be most promising pathway for international economic growth in the near future.

Open access
Economic theories and models
Economic, financial, and policy analysis
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Original source
Jan 1, 2026¡SSRN Electronic Journal
0 cites
Inflation as an Emergent Phenomenon

Alessio Emanuele Biondo, Mauro Gallegati

We develop an agent-based model in which inflation emerges from decentralized price-setting and credit-financed production in an endogenous-money economy. Firms operate under working-capital constraints, form market-based price expectations through heterogeneous adaptive learning, and set prices via cost-plus rules with endogenous mark-ups. Bank lending simultaneously creates deposits, while heterogeneous lending rates and credit rationing shape firms' financing costs and, through unit costs, their pricing decisions. The economy features interacting production and credit networks: intermediate-input linkages propagate cost shocks across supply chains, while bank--firm relationships transmit financial conditions across firms. The interaction of network-based pass-through, state-dependent pricing incentives, and evolving credit conditions generates inflationary regimes, including episodes driven by pricing cascades and feedback loops.

Open access
3 source records
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Banking stability, regulation, efficiency
Economic theories and models
Original source
Jan 1, 2026¡SSRN Electronic Journal
0 cites
Sovereign Hybrid Blockchains for Regulated DeFi: A Cambodia Design Case

Sengtha Chay

Emerging economies face a sharp version of a general dilemma: permissionless decentralized finance imposes compliance and usability costs that regulated institutions and ordinary users cannot absorb, while central bank digital currency pilots typically foreclose composability and independent development. We present the design of a sovereign hybrid blockchain -- open and composable within a national perimeter, closed and governed with respect to the outside world -- and evaluate it as an implemented system. The design enforces identity beneath the contract layer, separates a native settlement asset from pluggable tokenized local-currency instruments, routes all outbound value through a single governed gateway, and distributes institutional powers across smart contracts. We instantiate it as a permissioned Avalanche Layer-1 and evaluate its central claim against two unmodified production protocols, Uniswap V2 and Aave V3, deployed from published upstream artifacts on a live chain. Both run without source modification, and compliance holds wherever the regulated asset itself moves. But the claims these protocols issue against the asset carry none of its rules. Pool shares and interest-bearing deposit receipts reach addresses holding no identity attestation and no permission to transact; the lending receipt accrues, and the protocol computes a borrowing entitlement for an address the identity registry does not recognise. Base-layer identity enforcement secures custody of an asset, not exposure to it. We further report that a sovereign fee policy set for inclusion forecloses standard interoperability tooling, that a parent-chain fee balance halts the chain silently, and that redeploying the contract suite partitions the compliance perimeter rather than replacing it.

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
FinTech, Crowdfunding, Digital Finance
Economic theories and models
Original source
Jan 1, 2026¡SSRN Electronic Journal
0 cites
IntelliFi: Intelligent Execution of Monetary Theory

Christopher Staples

Monetary theory has historically focused on the objectives of money—stability, coordination, and value preservation—while leaving the execution of monetary policy largely dependent on discretionary institutions or static rule-based systems. This paper argues that the absence of a formal execution layer constitutes a structural gap in modern monetary systems. We introduce IntelliFi (Intelligent Finance) as a general framework for the intelligent execution of monetary theory. IntelliFi treats money not as a static object or purely institutional construct, but as a closed-loop control system in which issuance, incentives, stabilization mechanisms, and policy enforcement are executed through adaptive, feedback-driven, constraint-bound, and verifiable processes. Unlike traditional fiat systems, which rely on human discretion, or algorithmic monetary systems, which rely on rigid pre-commitments, IntelliFi formalizes monetary execution as a bounded optimization problem governed by explicit constitutional constraints. Intelligence, in this context, is defined not as autonomy or artificial decision-making, but as systematic responsiveness to observable economic signals within non-negotiable limits. The paper presents a formal definition of IntelliFi, outlines its execution model, and identifies the necessary and sufficient conditions for a monetary system to qualify as IntelliFi-compliant. Existing monetary regimes—including commodity money, fiat systems, cryptocurrencies, decentralized finance protocols, and governance-based systems—are examined as partial or proto-executions of IntelliFi principles. By separating monetary theory from its execution and formalizing execution as a first-class economic problem, this work reframes how monetary systems can be designed, evaluated, and governed. IntelliFi is presented not as a new currency or policy prescription, but as a general purpose framework for implementing monetary theory in adaptive, transparent, and resilient ways.

Open access
Economic theories and models
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Economic Theory and Policy
Original source