Manuela Tvaronavičienė, Wadim Striełkowski
This paper assesses the role of green hydrogen and green ammonia in the low-carbon reconstruction of Ukraine’s energy sector. The country, severely affected by war, has more than 70% of its energy infrastructure damaged or destroyed, which calls for novel solutions for not only reconstructing but also rethinking Ukraine’s energy sector shaped by the Soviet-era planning. In this context, decentralized and renewable energy solutions appear to be one of the best options to achieve this goal. This study combines four novel and mutually reinforcing methods: a Scopus-based literature review of highly cited green hydrogen publications, natural language processing (NLP) and bibliometric network analysis of Ukraine-related hydrogen research, a SWOT assessment, and a geospatial hydrogen production cost model (GEOH2). The novelty of this research lies in this integrated Ukraine-specific framework, which links research trends, wartime reconstruction constraints, hub-level policy choices, and financing risk-sensitive cost modeling. Therefore, the quantitative part of GEOH2 estimates the levelized cost of green hydrogen, while ammonia is treated as a downstream screening-level conversion and export pathway rather than as a full plant-level ammonia model. Our results show that Ukrainian green hydrogen research is concentrated on renewable-energy strategy, wind and solar electrolysis, water and desalination constraints, gas grid blending, underground storage, ammonia derivatives, and decentralized energy systems. The GEOH2 results indicate that southern Ukraine has strong physical potential for competitive green hydrogen production under de-risked financing, while war risk financing can make even resource-rich areas economically unattractive. Odesa and Dnipro emerge as important export-oriented and industrial hubs, whereas Zakarpattia remains strategically relevant as a safer western corridor linked to European markets. Our findings demonstrate that Ukraine’s hydrogen and ammonia development needs to follow a phased pathway: domestic renewable build-out and grid repair, pilot electrolysis projects and screening-level ammonia conversion pathways, targeted de-risking and insurance mechanisms, and only then broader export corridor development. This pathway can support decarbonization, energy security, industrial modernization, and Ukraine’s long-term integration into European clean energy value chains.