This study aims to provide foundational data for developing sports non-fungible token (NFT) marketing strategies and enhancing fan experiences by analyzing public sentiment and semantic structures of NBA NFTs. Social big data were collected between 2021 and 2025 from six global platforms (Google, YouTube, Twitter, Reddit, Yahoo, Quora) using the TextoM platform. The analyses conducted included text mining, sentiment analysis, semantic network analysis, and CONCOR analysis. Central keywords included NFT, NBA, TopShot, player, team, marketplace, and crypto. Sentiment analysis indicated 67.5% positive and 32.5% negative sentiment. Semantic network analysis revealed a structure centered around NFT, community, news, game, and blockchain. CONCOR analysis identified five clusters: NFT Infrastructure, NBA Branding, Market Economy, Community Engagement, and Temporal Context. Overall, NBA NFTs are perceived as technical assets and as emotionally driven, identity- and community-centered content. The findings of this study offer significant practical implications for practitioners and managers in the sports industry by guiding the development of marketing strategies that integrate emotional engagement and multidimensional consumer value. This study contributes to the emerging literature on sports NFTs by providing exploratory discourse-level insights into how NBA NFTs are discussed across online platforms and by identifying themes that may inform future theory-driven research at the consumer level.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket are increasingly cited as real-time probability estimates for financial outcomes, yet it remains unknown whether their prices are consistent with the risk-neutral probabilities implied by options markets pricing the same events. Using 2,671 daily observations across 24 Gold and Silver CME futures threshold contracts over a six-month period, this paper finds that Polymarket systematically overprices the upside relative to Black-76 implied probabilities by 8.9 percentage points for Gold and 5.3 percentage points for Silver, a finding robust to seven independent checks and consistent in direction with a contemporaneous independent study on Bitcoin threshold contracts. The divergence exhibits AR(1) half-lives under three days, narrows significantly as expiry approaches, and cannot be fully explained by transaction costs or the commodity risk premium. These results suggest systematic mispricing in prediction market binary threshold contracts, though the observed magnitudes should be interpreted as upper bounds on behavioural mispricing given the structural wedge between risk-neutral and real-world probability measures.