Mutlu Başaran Öztürk, Halil Arslan, Temur Kayhan, Mustafa Uysal
2017 yılında Bitcoin’in piyasa değerinde önemli bir artış yaşanmış ve 200 milyar dolar seviyesi aşılarak Bitcoin kurumsal yatırımcıların gündemine gelmeye başlamıştır. CME ve CBOE gibi dünyanın en büyük vadeli işlem borsaları Bitcoin’i listelerken Microsoft, PWC ve Overstock gibi kurumlar Bitcoin’i tanımlamaya başlamışlardır. Bitcoin’in bir yatırım aracı olarak görülebilmesi için bazı şartlar gereklidir. Verimli bir piyasada işlem görmesi, fiyatlama formasyonunun belirginleşmesi ve portföyler için bir çeşitlendirme aracı olabilmesi bunlardan bazıları olarak görülebilir. Ana akım varlık grupları ile Bitcoin arasındaki uzun vadeli ilişkiyi Johansen Eşbütünleşme testi ile inceleyen çalışma sonuçlarına göre Bitcoin’in altın haricinde diğer geleneksel finansal ve emtia varlıklarından bağımsız bir hareket gösterdiği ortaya çıkmıştır. Bitcoin’in söz konusu bağımsız hareketi Bitconomi olarak tanımlanırken bu durum mikro seviyede riskli bir varlığın makro anlamda portföylerin riskini düşürebileceği anlamına gelmektedir. Finansal sistemde çok küçük bir alanı işgal etmesi ve Bitcoin üretimindeki zorluk derecesinin klasik ekonomi ile çelişmesi korelasyonun anlamsız olmasının nedenleri arasında gösterilebilir. Kuzey Kore ve Ukrayna gerilimlerinde Bitcoin fiyatındaki artışlar ve altın ile Bitcoin arasındaki uzun vadeli pozitif ilişki yüksek varyansı nedeniyle eleştirilen Bitcoin’in gelecekte güvenli liman olabileceği gibi ilginç bir ironiye işaret etmektedir. Literatürdeki çalışmalar her geçen yıl Bitcoin’in varyansının gerilediğini göstermektedir.
Stanisław Drożdż, Robert Gȩbarowski, Ludovico Minati, Paweł Oświȩcimka · 5 authors
Based on 1-minute price changes recorded since year 2012, the fluctuation properties of the rapidly-emerging Bitcoin (BTC) market are assessed over chosen sub-periods, in terms of return distributions, volatility autocorrelation, Hurst exponents and multiscaling effects. The findings are compared to the stylized facts of mature world markets. While early trading was affected by system-specific irregularities, it is found that over the months preceding Apr 2018 all these statistical indicators approach the features hallmarking maturity. This can be taken as an indication that the Bitcoin market, and possibly other cryptocurrencies, carry concrete potential of imminently becoming a regular market, alternative to the foreign exchange (Forex). Since high-frequency price data are available since the beginning of trading, the Bitcoin offers a unique window into the statistical characteristics of a market maturation trajectory.
Cryptocurrencies return cross-predictability yields information on risk
propagation and market segmentation. To explore these effects, we build a
dynamic network of cryptocurrencies based on the evolution of return
cross-predictability and develop a dynamic covariate-assisted spectral
clustering method to consistently estimate the latent group membership of
cryptocurrencies. We show that return cross-predictability and
cryptocurrencies' characteristics, including hashing algorithms and proof
types, jointly determine the cryptocurrencies market segmentation. Portfolio
analysis reveals that more centred cryptocurrencies in the network earn higher
risk premiums.
Cryptocurrencies return cross-predictability and technological similarity yield information on risk propagation and market segmentation. To investigate these effects, we build a time-varying network for cryptocurrencies, based on the evolution of return cross-predictability and technological similarities. We develop a dynamic covariate-assisted spectral clustering method to consistently estimate the latent community structure of cryptocurrencies network that accounts for both sets of information. We demonstrate that investors can achieve better risk diversification by investing in cryptocurrencies from different communities. A cross-sectional portfolio that implements an inter-crypto momentum trading strategy earns a 1.08% daily return. By dissecting the portfolio returns on behavioral factors, we confirm that our results are not driven by behavioral mechanisms.
Feb 6, 2018·Caginalp, C., & Caginalp, G. (2018). Opinion: Valuation, liquidity price, and stability of cryptocurrencies. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115(6), 1131-1134
Cryptocurrencies are examined through the asset flow equations and experimental asset markets. Since tangible value of a typical cryptocurrency is non-existent, the theory suggests that price will gravitate toward liquidity value, i.e., the total amount of cash available for purchase of the asset divided by the number of units. Thus it is unlikely that cryptocurrencies in their current form will be stable in the absence of a mechanism of a link to value.
Elie Bouri, Mahamitra Das, Rangan Gupta, David Roubaud
This paper contributes to the embryonic literature on the relations between Bitcoin and conventional investments by studying return and volatility spillovers between this largest cryptocurrency and four asset classes (equities, stocks, commodities, currencies, and bonds) in bear and bull market conditions. We conducted empirical analyses based on a smooth transition VAR GARCH-in-mean model covering daily data from July 19, 2010 to October 31, 2017. We found significant evidence that Bitcoin returns are related quite closely to those of most of the other assets studies, particularly commodities, and therefore, the Bitcoin market is not isolated completely. The significance and sign of the spillovers exhibited some differences in the two market conditions and in the direction of the spillovers, with greater evidence that Bitcoin receives more volatility than it transmits. Our findings have implications for investors and fund managers who are considering Bitcoin as part of their investment strategies and for policymakers concerned about the vulnerability that Bitcoin represents to the stability of the global financial system.
Hélder Sebastião, António Portugal Duarte, Gabriel Guerreiro
This paper analyses the price discovery in the USD/Bitcoin market since Mar‑2014 to Nov‑2016. The results show a positive relationship between the informational relevance of exchanges and their market shares. Information is mostly transmitted between exchanges within an hour, at least for the main exchanges, although lagged feedbacks occur from the major exchanges. Minor exchanges are merely satellite ones and react to price information with some delay. Bitfinex is the most important exchange: the lagged feedback from this exchange to the market is 18.3%, while the reverse feedback accounts only for 0.6% of the total feedback. Volatility in the major exchanges is the main factor explaining the feedback measures, which sustains the claim that the relative importance of the information-based component of volatility increases with the relative dimension of the exchange.
Cryptocurrency and blockchain has conjointly become trending buzzwords in the business\nworld today. As the blockchain technology has become older and more researched, its areas\nof usage have broadened far beyond payment solutions like Bitcoin. In venture financing,\nblockchain has been used to establish a prominent fundraising tool, called initial coin offerings\n(ICO). An ICO is a crowdfunding method resembling initial public offerings, where ventures\nissue a blockchain based token, subject to public sale. ICO has become a lucrative financing\nmethod for blockchain affiliated ventures.\nThe hype around cryptocurrency has led to increased ICO attention. Everyone can invest in an\nICO, and thus, it has become a popular investment opportunity. This thesis looks at ICOs as\ninvestment objects, with the aim to find out what an investor should consider before investing.\nAdditionally, we assess whether ICOs are profitable financial instruments relative to its close\nsubstitutes, and evaluate measures to avoid scams.\nThe study is based on 104 companies that have had ICOs, and analyzes what factors influence\nboth ICO success rate, and post-ICO capital gains. Our results indicate that hype and pricing\nis influential on the outcome of an ICO, which in turn is important for subsequent price\nmovements. We have also observed that venture capital seed funded companies performed\nbetter in the ICO aftermath. By further using the results, we have also found that investors\nmay use these parameters when investing in an ICO to outperform both our benchmark\ncryptocurrency Ethereum, and other ICOs.
We examine the predictions of the resale option hypothesis (Scheinkman and Xiong, 2003) in cryptocurrency markets. The resale option hypothesis yields testable implications on the relationship between the level and volatility of mispricing, and the degree of heterogeneous beliefs. Using turnover as a proxy for heterogeneity, we find evidence supporting the resale option hypothesis. These findings are persistent across various types of cryptocurrencies, and support the notion that cryptocurrencies trade above intrinsic value. Futhermore, we conduct two backtests to show that portfolios with higher turnover or resale option characteristics underperform portfolios with lower turnover or resale option characteristics. This supports the theory that disagreement is negatively related to future returns for positive biased assets (see Atmaz and Basak, 2018).
With innovation always comes unknowns. Blockchain technology and crypto–assets are no different. Often times, innovators are so worried about getting their product to market or scaling at mass that they overlook the legal ramifications of their innovations. As Mark Zuckerberg infamously said, “move fast and break things.” Facebook was in no way alone in this style of innovation. However, with respect to crypto–assets, the SEC has stepped in and is attempting to prevent the “break things” aspect. One of the major issues relating to crypto–assets is that many people still do not understand what they are, or how the underlying technology works. At the moment, we do not know what to classify crypto– assets as: property, commodities, or something else . If the SEC determines that crypto–assets are investment contracts, the regulation that follows is at risk of putting stranglehold on the underlying innovation and technology. It becomes an issue of balancing consumer protection and innovation for society. SEC v. W.J. Howey Co. laid out a pronged test to determine whether a transaction is an investment contract, subjecting it to securities laws. This note examines the Howey Test to explain why two popular crypto–assets, Bitcoin and Ethereum, are unlikely to satisfy the Howey Test, and briefly addresses the need for clarity in this area. }
This paper studies the efficiency of the cryptocurrency market by looking at the distribution of bitcoin prices over time and across exchange-currency pairs. We document persistent differences in relative bitcoin prices (or discounts), with a half-life of 1 day, and a distribution which is leptokurtic, skewed to the right, with a standard deviation of 3.9%. The variability of discounts is larger in countries with tighter capital controls due to the combined effect of market segmentation and local supply and demand shocks, which we relate to location-specific mining activities and investor attention.
Aleš Kozubík University of Žilina – Faculty of Management Science and Informatics – Department of the Mathematical Methods and Operations Research, Univerzitná 8215/1, 010 26 Žilina, Slovak Republic DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/ITEMA.2018.507 2nd International Scientific Conference on Recent Advances in Information Technology, Tourism, Economics, Management and Agriculture – ITEMA 2018 – Graz, Austria, November 8, […]