This study unveils the unique properties of crypto assets and investigates the dynamic connectedness between six prominent stablecoins and Bitcoin in comparison with Bitcoin/stablecoin pairs involving portfolio management. Empirically, using the DCC-GJR-GARCH and partial wavelet coherence approaches, we show that Bitcoin provides greater diversification potential benefits compared to stablecoins during the COVID-19 crisis. The evidence suggests that Bitcoin, as the dominant cryptoasset, can serve as a suitable asset for portfolio diversification against stablecoins. Besides, we evaluate potential hedging benefits of cryptocurrencies for market participants and find that stablecoins are poor hedging products in most of the cases considered. The optimal portfolio for the hedging strategy involving a mix of Bitcoin and stablecoins reveals that the weights assigned to stablecoins are lower than those for Bitcoin. In particular, our results provide timely implications for market participants whose crypto portfolios include stablecoins, especially after Terra’s collapse.
Sherin M. Omran, Wessam H. El-Behaidy, Aliaa A. A. Youssif
Bitcoin is the first and most famous cryptocurrency. It is a virtual currency that is operated in a decentralized form using cryptographic strategies called blockchains. Although it has experienced significant market acceptance by traders and investors in recent years, it also suffers from volatility and riskiness. Technical analysis is one of the most powerful tools used for trading signals’ allocation using some algorithmic strategies called technical indicators. In this research, a newly proposed multi-objectives decomposition-based particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to find the best parameter values for some technical indicators, which in turn generates the best trading signals for Bitcoin trading. In this context, three conflicting objectives have been used, i.e., the return on investment, the Sortino-ratio, and the number of trades. The proposed algorithm is compared to the original MOEA/D algorithm as well as the indicators using their original parameters. Results showed the superiority of the proposed algorithm during the training and testing periods over the other benchmarks.
In this paper, we introduce a new approach to multivariate forecasting cryptocurrency prices using a hybrid contextual model combining exponential smoothing (ES) and recurrent neural network (RNN). The model consists of two tracks: the context track and the main track. The context track provides additional information to the main track, extracted from representative series. This information as well as information extracted from exogenous variables is dynamically adjusted to the individual series forecasted by the main track. The RNN stacked architecture with hierarchical dilations, incorporating recently developed attentive dilated recurrent cells, allows the model to capture short and long-term dependencies across time series and dynamically weight input information. The model generates both point daily forecasts and predictive intervals for one-day, one-week and four-week horizons. We apply our model to forecast prices of 15 cryptocurrencies based on 17 input variables and compare its performance with that of comparative models, including both statistical and ML ones.
This paper examines the response of major cryptocurrencies to macroeconomic news announcements (MNA). While other cryptocurrencies exhibit no reaction to major MNA, Bitcoin responds negatively to inflation surprise. Price of Bitcoin decreases by 24 bps in response to a 1 standard deviation inflationary surprise. This reaction is inconsistent with widely-held beliefs of practitioners that Bitcoin can hedge inflation. I do not find support for the hypothesis that the negative response of Bitcoin to inflation is due to its negative exposure to interest rates. Instead, I find support for the hypothesis that Bitcoin is strongly affected by the shift in consumption-savings decisions, driven by the rise in inflation. Consistent with this view, Bitcoin has negative exposure to a proxy for the consumption-savings ratio.
Cryptocurrency is a popular digital currency due to its security and peer-to-peer transferability. Predicting cryptocurrency prices is crucial for investors and traders to make informed decisions on buying, selling, or holding cryptocurrencies based on their expected value, potential risks, and returns. This study aims to identify the optimal model for predicting the prices of cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), using Deephaven for Data curation. The study involves extracting data from both cryptocurrencies by Deephaven and selecting the most correlating parameters through time lag adjustment. We use correlating cryptocurrency data to train models, such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Long-Short Term Memories (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU). Where the trial-and-error technique was applied for selecting optimized hyper-parameters for each model. The models are then evaluated by statistical evaluators, such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), separately for training and testing datasets. For Bitcoin, the results showed that the LSTM model outperform ANN and GRU models in both training and testing data with MAE, RMSE, and MAPE average values of 0.079, 1.16, and 0.0006, respectively. While for Ethereum, the results also revealed that LSTM model performance is superior with MAE, RMSE, and MAPE average values of 0.0025, 0.124 and 0.0002, respectively. While GRU (MAE 0.012, RMSE 0.117, MAPE 0.002) performs robustly against ANN (MAE 0.035, RMSE 0.149, MAPE 0.003) model.
P. V. Nagamani, Gowri Anand, Srinivasa Prasanna, Basava Raju · 5 authors
The past several years have seen an increase in interest in trading that is supported by machine learning and artificial intelligence.Utilize automated trading with the aid of machine learning and artificial intelligence to reap the maximum rewards from the cryptocurrency market.For a specific time, we keep the daily data.We achieve excellent results by utilising tactics supported by cutting-edge algorithms.The results produced the expansion in the crypto currency industry with the aid of straight forward architecture and algorithms.The rise in market capitalization has led to a rise in popularity for the cryptocurrency in 2017.Today's market involves more than 1500 crypto currencies.For usage in online transactions, the crypto currency can be created.A crypto money technology is bitcoin.Bitcoin's value changes constantly, second by second.As a result, we apply machine learning architecture to forecast the value of the bitcoin price in this case.We are working to demonstrate that, in comparison to previous techniques and architectures, this ML architecture produces results that are more accurate.Our study use the Support Vector Machine(SVM) and K Nearest Neighbor(KNN)algorithms to successfully forecast bitcoin prices.The findings demonstrate that the Support Vector Machine(SVM) method outperforms the K Nearest Neighbor(KNN) method as it is currently being used.
In his paper we explore the dynamic time-frequency volatility spillover effects between Bitcoin and Chinese financial markets, covering several main events. Results show that the volatility spillovers are asymmetric, with the Bitcoin market being the net risk receiver. The total spillovers, driven by medium and low frequency components, peak before the China stock crash in 2015, increase since the trade disputes between China and the US in 2018, and peak since the COVID-19 pandemic. The pairwise spillovers related to Bitcoins mainly concentrate on stock, foreign exchange, and copper futures markets. Although the pairwise spillovers are weak, the Bitcoin market is the net receiver in medium and low frequencies under external shocks. Therefore, investors and regulators need to assess the potential risk of Bitcoin based on asset type with the perspectives of time and frequency.
We employ a novel framework to measure the asymmetric nexus between the cryptocurrency market and the carbon futures market based on different market conditions. Specifically, we use a quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR) approach to explore the correlation between cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple) and European Union Allowance (EUA) futures. We find that there is an asymmetric relationship between markets that is affected by different cryptocurrencies and market conditions. Overall, Bitcoin or Ethereum are positively correlated with the carbon market, while the results of Ripple are more complex. Under certain conditions, EUA futures can be a better hedge against cryptocurrency risk.
This paper quantifies mainstream media coverage of Bitcoin to understand how a once niche interest entered public culture. From 2011 to 2022, five key narratives are identified as criminality, culture, politics, price and technology. Price, politics, and culture have become more prominent in coverage while the technology narrative has waned. Coverage that is more political or cultural is associated with subsequently lower returns whereas the criminality narrative is associated with higher returns. Together this suggests that as narratives have become more mainstream, they have created additional demand, despite the negative association with criminal activity.
<abstract> <p>Bitcoin has become quite known after the 2008 economic crisis and the COVID-19 health crisis. For some, these cryptocurrencies constitute rebellion against the existing system as governments encourage uncontrolled expansions in the money supply; for some others, it is a quick source of income. Undeniably, the volume of the crypto money market has grown considerably in recent years, regardless of the reasoning of the people who invest and trade in this field. At this point, one of the most important questions to be investigated is "what variables have caused the tremendous growth in the crypto money quantities in recent years?" This study tests the assumption that changes in cryptocurrencies are affected by changes in national currencies. Thus, the Bitcoin price is the dependent variable, and M1 monetary supply changes in the USA, European Union and Japanese economies are considered independent variables. The variables in this study were tested using the time-varying Granger causality method. The results obtained from this study confirm the philosophy of Bitcoin's emergence and the possibility that it can be a hedge against the inflationary effects of money, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic.</p> </abstract>
After Bitcoin futures were introduced by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in December 2017, their trading volume has stayed in an uptrend due to speculation, though the scale is still small compared to other traditional futures. As increasing trading indicates more attention and the presence of institutional traders, there exists a need for reliable return and variance forecasts of Bitcoin futures contracts. Therefore, this paper first applies LASSO to pick out best-fitting predictors by shrinking the dimension of a universe of potential determinants sourced from intraday Bitcoin spot trades and daily futures variables. Then, a second round of predictor selection is conducted via Bayesian model averaging so that the modeling uncertainty can be mitigated. We find that factors standing out from this two-step procedure possess a strong predictive power for Bitcoin futures return and volatility in different time horizons. It is further demonstrated that the investment and hedging strategies established based on our forecasts perform well in out-of-sample validations.
<abstract> <p>This research attempts to fit a polynomial auto regression (PAR) model to intraday price data of four major cryptocurrencies and convert the model into a real-time profitable automated trading system. A PAR model was constructed to fit cryptocurrencies' behavior and to attempt to predict their short-term trends and trade them profitably. We used machine learning (ML) procedures enabling our system to train using minutes' data for six months and perform actual trading and reporting for the next six months. Results have shown that our system has dramatically outperformed the naive buy and hold (B &amp; H) strategy for all four examined cryptocurrencies. Results show that our system's best performances were achieved trading Ethereum and Bitcoin and worse trading Cardano. The highest net profit (NP) for Bitcoin trades was 15.58%, achieved by using 67 minutes bars to form the prediction model, compared to −44.8% for the B &amp; H strategy. Trading Ethereum, the system generated 16.98% NP, compared to −33.6% for the B &amp; H strategy, 61 minutes bars. Moreover, the highest NPs achieved trading Binance Coin (BNB) and Cardano were 9.33% and 4.26%, compared to 0.28% and −41.8% for the B &amp; H strategy, respectively. Furthermore, the system better predicted Ethereum and Cardano uptrends than downtrends while it better predicted Bitcoin and BNB downtrends than uptrends.</p> </abstract>