Two distinct and non-redundant understandings of volatility, as deviation from consistency, exist for a time-series: (1) exhibiting high standard deviation and, closer to the dictionary definition of the term, (2) appearing highly irregular and unpredictable. We find that Bitcoin is a prime example of an asset for which the two concepts of volatility diverge. We show that, historically, Bitcoin combines high Standard Deviation and low Approximate Entropy, relative to Gold and S&P 500. Moreover, subsample analysis for different time-scales (daily, weekly, monthly) shows that lower sampling frequencies drastically reduce the Kurtosis of the distribution of log-returns of Bitcoin. The opposite effect is observed for Gold and S&P 500. These properties suggest that, contrary to the volatility of the two traditional assets, Bitcoinâs high volatility is essentially an intra-day phenomenon that is strongly attenuated for a weekly or monthly time-preference.
As Machine Learning (ML) models are becoming increasingly complex, one of the central challenges is their deployment at scale, such that companies and organizations can create value through Artificial Intelligence (AI). An emerging paradigm in ML is a federated approach where the learning model is delivered to a group of heterogeneous agents partially, allowing agents to train the model locally with their own data. However, the problem of valuation of models, as well the questions of incentives for collaborative training and trading of data/models, have received limited treatment in the literature. In this paper, a new ecosystem of ML model trading over a trusted Blockchain-based network is proposed. The buyer can acquire the model of interest from the ML market, and interested sellers spend local computations on their data to enhance that model's quality. In doing so, the proportional relation between the local data and the quality of trained models is considered, and the valuations of seller's data in training the models are estimated through the distributed Data Shapley Value (DSV). At the same time, the trustworthiness of the entire trading process is provided by the distributed Ledger Technology (DLT). Extensive experimental evaluation of the proposed approach shows a competitive run-time performance, with a 15\% drop in the cost of execution, and fairness in terms of incentives for the participants.
Since late 2019, during one of the largest pandemics in history, COVID-19, global economic recession has continued. Therefore, investors seek an alternative investment that generates profits during this financially risky situation. Cryptocurrency, such as Bitcoin, has become a new currency tool for speculators and investors, and it is expected to be used in future exchanges. Therefore, this paper uses a Value at Risk (VaR) model to measure the risk of investment in Bitcoin. In this paper, we showed the results of the predicted daily loss of investment by using the historical simulation VaR model, the delta-normal VaR model, and the Monte Carlo simulation VaR model with the confidence levels of 99%, 95%, and 90%. This paper displayed backtesting methods to investigate the accuracy of VaR models, which consisted of the Kupiecâs POF and the Kupiecâs TUFF statistical testing results. Finally, Christoffersenâs independence test and Christoffersenâs interval forecasts evaluation showed effectiveness in the predictions for the robustness of VaR models for each confidence level.
Olufunke G. Darley, Abayomi Isiaka O. Yussuff, Adetokunbo A. Adenowo
Abstract This paper investigated Bitcoin daily closing price using time series approach to predict future values for financial managers and investors. Daily data were sourced from CoinDesk, with Bitcoin Price Index (BPI) for 5 years (January 1, 2016 to May 31, 2021) extracted. Data analysis and modelling of price trend using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was carried out, and a suitable model for forecasting was proposed. Results showed that ARIMA(6,1,12) model was the most suitable based on a combination of number of significant coefficients and values of volatility, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). A two-month test window was used for forecasting and prediction. Results showed a decline in prediction accuracy as number of days of the test period increased; from 99.94% for the first 7 days, to 99.59 % for 14 days and 95.84% for 30 days. For the two-month test period, percentage accuracy was 84.75%. The study confirms that the ARIMA model is a veritable planning tool for financial managers, investors and other stakeholders; especially for short-term forecasting. It is however imperative that the influence of external factors, such as investorsâ/influencersâ comments and government intervention, that may affect forecasting be taken into consideration.
Abstract Cryptocurrencies are digital assets that can be stored and transferred electronically. Bitcoin (BTC) is one of the most popular cryptocurrencies that has attracted many attentions. The BTC price is considered as a high volatility time series with non-stationary and non-linear behavior. Therefore, the BTC price forecasting is a new, challenging, and open problem. In this research, we aim the predicting price using machine learning and statistical techniques. We deploy several robust approaches such as the Box-Jenkins, Autoregression (AR), Moving Average (MA), ARIMA, Autocorrelation Function (ACF), Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF), and Grid Search algorithms to predict BTC price. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, Forecast Error (FE), Mean Forecast Error (MFE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), as well as Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), are considered in our study.
Recently, Bitcoin has gained great importance in the cryptocurrency market with the highest market capitalization. Investors and researchers have attempted to find out the drivers of Bitcoin prices and if they are predictable. However, there is only limited research in the literature that identifies the most effective economic and technical variables for predicting Bitcoin prices using machine learning models. Thus, in this study, the future Bitcoin prices utilizing several economic and technical factors using the ANFIS model are aimed to forecasted between 01.05.2013 - 26.02.2021 periods. The findings show that the ANFIS model produced accurate and consistent predicting results that are in line with the real data. As a result, investors who wish to make a profit by predicting future Bitcoin values might consider using the ANFIS approach as a forecasting tool.
We study the information dynamics between the largest Bitcoin exchange markets during the bubble in 2017-2018. By analysing high-frequency market-microstructure observables with different information theoretic measures for dynamical systems, we find temporal changes in information sharing across markets. In particular, we study the time-varying components of predictability, memory, and synchronous coupling, measured by transfer entropy, active information storage, and multi-information. By comparing these empirical findings with several models we argue that some results could relate to intra-market and inter-market regime shifts, and changes in direction of information flow between different market observables.
This research is the first attempt to customize a trading system that is based on second order stochastic dominance (SSD) to five known cryptocurrenciesâ daily data: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Binance Coin, and Cardano. Results show that our system can predict price trends of cryptocurrencies, trade them profitably, and in most cases outperform the buy and hold (B&H) simple strategy. Our systemâs best performance was achieved trading XRP, Binance Coin, Ethereum, and Bitcoin. Although our system has also generated a positive net profit (NP) for Cardano, it failed to outperform the B&H strategy. For all currencies, the system better predicted long trends than short trends.
This paper initially presents a brief overview of the cryptocurrency and its history. We discuss the novel nature of literature attempting to create hybrid artificial neural network models to predict prices of cryptocurrency. For the remaining majority of the paper, we present the details of various hybrid artificial neural networks that have successfully been implemented to predict cryptocurrency prices in the form of a survey. Comparison of methods and results follow in the results section.
In this paper, I examine how social media affects cryptocurrencies and more traditional stocks. I use data on Twitter posts in combination with daily stock prices to estimate the causal effect of a tweet on stock and coin prices. To do this, I use a difference-indifference regression with index funds as my control group, which allows me to capture general market trends that coins and stocks would follow if not for intervention. I find that tweets have a significant impact on cryptocurrencies that last up to three days after the post. The increase in coin prices is driven by tweets from Tyler Winklevoss and tweets about Tezos and Ethereum specifically. Meanwhile, Twitter posts have no impact on more traditional stocks. These results suggest that social media can provide the public with valuable information in real time for fast moving and volatile crypto assets, while their effects on more stable and institutionalized traditional stocks are more muted.
Atif Naseer, Enrique Nava Baro, Sultan Daud Khan, Y. Vila ¡ 5 authors
In recent years, cryptocurrency has become gradually more significant in economic regions worldwide. In cryptocurrencies, records are stored using a cryptographic algorithm. The main aim of this research was to develop an optimal solution for predicting the price of cryptocurrencies based on user opinions from social media. Twitter is used as a marketing tool for cryptoanalysis owing to the unrestricted conversations on cryptocurrencies that take place on social media channels. Therefore, this work focuses on extracting Tweets and gathering data from different sources to classify them into positive, negative, and neutral categories, and further examining the correlations between cryptocurrency movements and Tweet sentiments. This paper proposes an optimized method using a deep learning algorithm and convolution neural network for cryptocurrency prediction; this method is used to predict the prices of four cryptocurrencies, namely, Litecoin, Monero, Bitcoin, and Ethereum. The results of analyses demonstrate that the proposed method forecasts prices with a high accuracy of about 98.75%. The method is validated by comparison with existing methods using visualization tools.
Evan Millikan, Preethi Subramanian, Minnu Helen Joseph
Cryptocurrencies are non-physical currency that solely exist as represented by 0s and 1s within the world of computers. One of the most popular cryptocurrencies in the market right now being Bitcoin, was first invented to solve the inherent problem with using traditional currency when purchasing online. However, unexpectedly Bitcoin soon found itself to be one of the most profitable investment opportunities to be hedged on with its yearly growth unrivaled by any traditional investment product such as stocks, bonds, or real-estate. However, unlike the stock market which has been the subject of multitude of research papers, the cryptocurrency market has not been treated the same way and as such there is still a huge opportunity open in this industry. Thus, Bitcoin Vision wants to utilize this opportunity and propose the use of machine learning and deep learning architecture to predict the price movement trend of bitcoin (up or down) for the short-term prediction and predict the price of bitcoin for the long-term prediction. Being able to predict the future of the market prove to be useful in the stock market and as such this paper decide to replicate that opportunity to be presented in the cryptocurrency market as well. In this literature review paper, we have proposed the comparison of state-of-the-art deep learning model such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) with traditionally successful machine learning model such as Random Forest and ARIMA to find out which model provide the best result.
Aboosaleh Mohammad Sharifi, Kaveh KhaliliâDamghani, Farshid Abdi, Soheila Sardar
Cryptocurrencies are considered as new financial and economic tools having special and innovative features, among which Bitcoin is the most popular. The contribution of the Bitcoin market continues to grow due to the special nature of Bitcoin. The investors' attention to Bitcoin has increased significantly in recent years due to significant growth in its prices. It is important to create a prediction system which works well for investment management and business strategies due to the high chaos and volatility of Bitcoin prices. In this study, in order to improve predictive accuracy, Bitcoin price dataset is first divided into a time interval through time window, then propose a new model based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks and Metaheuristic algorithms. Chaotic Dolphin Swarm Optimization algorithm is used to optimize the LSTM. Performance evaluation indicated that the proposed model can have more effective predictions and improve prediction accuracy. In addition, the performance of the optimized model is better and more reliable than other models.
Noura Metawa, Mohamemd I. Alghamdi, Ibrahim M. ElâHasnony, Mohamed Elhoseny
Recently, bitcoin-based blockchain technologies have received significant interest among investors. They have concentrated on the prediction of return and risk rates of the financial product. So, an automated tool to predict the return rate of bitcoin is needed for financial products. The recently designed machine learning and deep learning models pave the way for the return rate prediction process. In this aspect, this study develops an intelligent return rate predictive approach using deep learning for blockchain financial products (RRP-DLBFP). The proposed RRP-DLBFP technique involves designing a long short-term memory (LSTM) model for the predictive analysis of return rate. In addition, Adam optimizer is applied to optimally adjust the LSTM modelâs hyperparameters, consequently increasing the predictive performance. The learning rate of the LSTM model is adjusted using the oppositional glowworm swarm optimization (OGSO) algorithm. The design of the OGSO algorithm to optimize the LSTM hyperparameters for bitcoin return rate prediction shows the novelty of the work. To ensure the supreme performance of the RRP-DLBFP technique, the Ethereum (ETH) return rate is chosen as the target, and the simulation results are investigated in different measures. The simulation outcomes highlighted the supremacy of the RRP-DLBFP technique over the current state of art techniques in terms of diverse evaluation parameters. For the MSE, the proposed RRP-DLBFP has 0.0435 and 0.0655 compared to an average of 0.6139 and 0.723 for compared methods in training and testing, respectively.
Bitcoin is firmly becoming a mainstream asset in our global society. Its highly volatile nature has traders and speculators flooding into the market to take advantage of its significant price swings in the hope of making money. This work brings an algorithmic trading approach to the Bitcoin market to exploit the variability in its price on a day-to-day basis through the classification of its direction. Building on previous work, in this paper, we utilise both features internal to the Bitcoin network and external features to inform the prediction of various machine learning models. As an empirical test of our models, we evaluate them using a real-world trading strategy on completely unseen data collected throughout the first quarter of 2021. Using only a binary predictor, at the end of our three-month trading period, our models showed an average profit of 86\%, matching the results of the more traditional buy-and-hold strategy. However, after incorporating a risk tolerance score into our trading strategy by utilising the model's prediction confidence scores, our models were 12.5\% more profitable than the simple buy-and-hold strategy. These results indicate the credible potential that machine learning models have in extracting profit from the Bitcoin market and act as a front-runner for further research into real-world Bitcoin trading.
M. Eren Akbiyik, Mert Erkul, Killian Kaempf, Vaiva VasiliauskaitÄ Âˇ 5 authors
Understanding the variations in trading price (volatility), and its response to exogenous information, is a well-researched topic in finance. In this study, we focus on finding stable and accurate volatility predictors for a relatively new asset class of cryptocurrencies, in particular Bitcoin, using deep learning representations of public social media data obtained from Twitter. For our experiments, we extracted semantic information and user statistics from over 30 million Bitcoin-related tweets, in conjunction with 15-minute frequency price data over a horizon of 144 days. Using this data, we built several deep learning architectures that utilized different combinations of the gathered information. For each model, we conducted ablation studies to assess the influence of different components and feature sets over the prediction accuracy. We found statistical evidences for the hypotheses that: (i) temporal convolutional networks perform significantly better than both classical autoregressive models and other deep learning-based architectures in the literature, and (ii) tweet author meta-information, even detached from the tweet itself, is a better predictor of volatility than the semantic content and tweet volume statistics. We demonstrate how different information sets gathered from social media can be utilized in different architectures and how they affect the prediction results. As an additional contribution, we make our dataset public for future research.
Feature selection reduces the dimension of input variables by eliminating irrelevant features. We propose feature selection techniques based on a genetic algorithm, which is a metaheuristic inspired by a natural selection process. We compare two types of feature selection for predicting a stock market index and cryptocurrency price. The first method is a newly devised genetic filter involving a fitness function designed to increase the relevance between the target and the selected features and decrease the redundancy between the selected features. The second method is a genetic wrapper, whereby we can find the better feature subsets related to KOPSI by exploring the solution space more thoroughly. Both genetic feature selection methods improved the predictive performance of various regression functions. Our best model was applied to predict the KOSPI, cryptocurrency price, and their respective trends after COVID-19.
In this study, we predicted the log returns of the top 10 cryptocurrencies based on market cap, using univariate and multivariate machine learning methods such as recurrent neural networks, deep learning neural networks, Holtâs exponential smoothing, autoregressive integrated moving average, ForecastX, and long short-term memory networks. The multivariate long short-term memory networks performed better than the univariate machine learning methods in terms of the prediction error measures.
Cryptocurrency is a new sort of asset that has emerged as a result of the advancement of financial technology and it has created a big opportunity for researches. Cryptocurrency price forecasting is difficult due to price volatility and dynamism. Around the world, there are hundreds of cryptocurrencies that are used. This paper proposes three types of recurrent neural network (RNN) algorithms used to predict the prices of three types of cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin (BTC), Litecoin (LTC), and Ethereum (ETH). The models show excellent predictions depending on the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Results obtained from these models show that the gated recurrent unit (GRU) performed better in prediction for all types of cryptocurrency than the long short-term memory (LSTM) and bidirectional LSTM (bi-LSTM) models. Therefore, it can be considered the best algorithm. GRU presents the most accurate prediction for LTC with MAPE percentages of 0.2454%, 0.8267%, and 0.2116% for BTC, ETH, and LTC, respectively. The bi-LSTM algorithm presents the lowest prediction result compared with the other two algorithms as the MAPE percentages are: 5.990%, 6.85%, and 2.332% for BTC, ETH, and LTC, respectively. Overall, the prediction models in this paper represent accurate results close to the actual prices of cryptocurrencies. The importance of having these models is that they can have significant economic ramifications by helping investors and traders to pinpoint cryptocurrency sales and purchasing. As a plan for future work, a recommendation is made to investigate other factors that might affect the prices of cryptocurrency market such as social media, tweets, and trading volume.
More and more people are entering the cryptocurrency market after Bitcoin (BTC) soared to nearly USD 20,000 in 2017. To promote the development of information technology and cryptocurrency marketing, various computerized systems integrating information technology with investment and financing are innovated continuously. In this study, the daily cryptocurrency prices were input to Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM); and the developing trend plots were drawn to predict and analyze the future cryptocurrency prices through deep learning. Finally, the business practices of cryptocurrency investment were modularized based on High-Level Fuzzy Petri Nets (HLFPNs) to make a better investment decision so that all investors can use this decision system to quickly understand the future cryptocurrency trend. The experimental results have shown that this decision system can provide effective investment information to achieve investorsâ personal financial goals with the expectation of improving financial situations.
K. Sri Lakshmi Sruthi, D. Ratnagiri, Rudru Jyothika, Salunkhe Sneha ¡ 6 authors
Bitcoin is one of the most popular and valuable cryptocurrencies in the current financial market, attracting traders for investment and thereby opening new research opportunities for researchers. Countless research works have been performed on Bitcoin price prediction with different machine learning prediction algorithms. For the project: relevant features are taken from the dataset having strong correlation with Bitcoin prices and random data chunks are then selected to train and test the model. The random data which has been selected for model training, may cause unfitting outcomes thus reducing the price prediction accuracy. Here, a proper method to train a prediction model is being scrutinised. The proposed methodology is then applied to train a simple Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to predict the bitcoin price for the upcoming 30 days. When the LSTM model is trained with a suitable data chunk, thus identified, sustainable results are found for the prediction. In the end of this project, the work culminates with future improvements. Bitcoin is a kind of Cryptocurrency and now is one of type of investment on the stock market. Stock markets are influenced by many risks of factor. And bitcoin is one kind of cryptocurrency that keep rising in recent few years, and sometimes sudden fall without knowing influence behind it on the stock market. Because it's fluctuations, there's a need and automation tool to predict bitcoin on the stock market. This research study learns how to create model prediction bitcoin stock market prediction using LSTM, LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) is another type of module provided for RNN later developed and popularized by many researchers, like RNN, the LSTM also consists of modules with recurrent consistency. The Method that we apply on this project, also technique and tools to predict Bitcoin on stock market yahoo finance can predict the result above $ 12600 USD for next days after prediction, in the last section we make conclusions and discuss future works.
David Opeoluwa Oyewola, Emmanuel Gbenga Dada, Juliana Ngozi Ndunagu, Daniel Eneojo Emmanuel
In the wake of recent pandemic of COVID-19, we explore its unprecedented impact on the demand and supply of cryptocurrenciesâmarket using machine learning such as NaĂŻve Bayes (NB), Decision Trees (C5), Decision Trees Bagging (BG), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short Term Memory and Noise Bagging (NBG). The study employed Noise filters to enhance the performance of Decision Trees Bagging named NBG. Dataset utilized for this analysis were obtained from the website of Coin Market Cap, including: Binance Coin (BCN), BitCoin Cash (BCH), BitCoin (BTC), BitCoinSV (BSV), Cardano (CDO), Chainlink (CLK), CryptoCoin (CCN), EOS (EOS), Ethereum (ETH), LiteCoin (LTC), Monero (MNO), Stellar (SLR), Tether (TTR), Tezos (TZS), XRP (XRP), and daily data collected from exchange markets platforms spans from 2nd January 2018 to 7th July 2020. Auto encoder was utilized for the labelling of the trading strategies buy-hold-sell.