Bitcoin is one of the most valuable Crypto currency in the world with the prices as high as 68,078 United States Dollar (USD) in November of 2021. It made Bitcoin a very profitable market for investment but Bitcoin saw many ups and down as well. Prices of Bitcoin have highly fluctuated which make them very difficult to predict. Hence, this research aims to discover the most efficient and highest accuracy model to predict Bitcoin prices from various machine learning algorithms. By using 1-minute interval trading data on the Bitcoin exchange website named bitstamp some different regression models with Scikit- learn and Keras libraries had experimented. The dataset used contains minute by minute prices of Bitcoin of over 5 years and contains almost 3 Million entries. Since, the dataset used is a big data, evaluating the performance of algorithms over a large dataset will give accurate results.
We study the prediction of Value at Risk (VaR) for cryptocurrencies. In contrast to classic assets, returns of cryptocurrencies are often highly volatile and characterized by large fluctuations around single events. Analyzing a comprehensive set of 105 major cryptocurrencies, we show that Generalized Random Forests (GRF) (Athey, Tibshirani & Wager, 2019) adapted to quantile prediction have superior performance over other established methods such as quantile regression, GARCH-type and CAViaR models. This advantage is especially pronounced in unstable times and for classes of highly-volatile cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, we identify important predictors during such times and show their influence on forecasting over time. Moreover, a comprehensive simulation study also indicates that the GRF methodology is at least on par with existing methods in VaR predictions for standard types of financial returns and clearly superior in the cryptocurrency setup.
The popularity of cryptocurrency in recent years has gained a lot of attention among researchers and in academic working areas. The uncontrollable and untraceable nature of cryptocurrency offers a lot of attractions to the people in this domain. The nature of the financial market is non-linear and disordered, which makes the prediction of exchange rates a challenging and difficult task. Predicting the price of cryptocurrency is based on the previous price inflations in research. Various machine learning algorithms have been applied to predict the digital coins' exchange rate, but in this study, we present the exchange rate of cryptocurrency based on applying the machine learning XGBoost algorithm and blockchain framework for the security and transparency of the proposed system. In this system, data mining techniques are applied for qualified data analysis. The applied machine learning algorithm is XGBoost, which performs the highest prediction output, after accuracy measurement performance. The prediction process is designed by using various filters and coefficient weights. The cross-validation method was applied for the phase of training to improve the performance of the system.
Value at risk and expected shortfall are increasingly popular tail risk measures in the financial risk management field. Both academia and financial institutions are working to improve tail risk forecasts in order to meet the requirements of the Basel Capital Accord; it states that one purpose of risk management and measuring risk accuracy is, since extreme movements cannot always be avoided, financial institutions can prepare for these extreme returns by capital allocation, and putting aside the appropriate amount of capital so as to avoid default in times of extreme price or index movements. Forecast combination has drawn much attention, as a combined forecast can outperform the individual forecasts under certain conditions. We propose two methodology, one is a semiparametric combination framework that can jointly produce combined value at risk and expected shortfall forecasts, another one is a parametric regression framework named as Quantile-ES regression that can produce combined expected shortfall forecasts. The favourability of the semiparametric combination framework has been presented via an empirical study - application in cryptocurrency markets with high-frequency data where the necessity of risk management application increases as the cryptocurrency market becomes more popular and mature. Additionally, the general framework of the parametric Quantile-ES regression has been presented via a simulation study, whereas it still need to be improved in the future. The contributions of this work include but are not limited to the enabling of the combination of expected shortfall forecasts and the application of risk management procedures in the cryptocurrency market with high-frequency data.
Jacques Fleischer, Gregor von Laszewski, Carlos Theran, Yohn Jairo Parra Bautista
In this paper we apply neural networks and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to historical records of high-risk cryptocurrency coins to train a prediction model that guesses their price. This paper's code contains Jupyter notebooks, one of which outputs a timeseries graph of any cryptocurrency price once a CSV file of the historical data is inputted into the program. Another Jupyter notebook trains an LSTM, or a long short-term memory model, to predict a cryptocurrency's closing price. The LSTM is fed the close price, which is the price that the currency has at the end of the day, so it can learn from those values. The notebook creates two sets: a training set and a test set to assess the accuracy of the results. The data is then normalized using manual min-max scaling so that the model does not experience any bias; this also enhances the performance of the model. Then, the model is trained using three layers -- an LSTM, dropout, and dense layer-minimizing the loss through 50 epochs of training; from this training, a recurrent neural network (RNN) is produced and fitted to the training set. Additionally, a graph of the loss over each epoch is produced, with the loss minimizing over time. Finally, the notebook plots a line graph of the actual currency price in red and the predicted price in blue. The process is then repeated for several more cryptocurrencies to compare prediction models. The parameters for the LSTM, such as number of epochs and batch size, are tweaked to try and minimize the root mean square error.
Ninuk Wiliani, Rizki Hesananda, Nidya Sari Rahmawati, Erdham Hestiadhi Prianggara
Predicting a currency Exchange rate and performing analysis is an action to try to determine the price valuation of a currency or other financial instrument traded on an exchange platform. Bitcoin is a consensus network that enables new payment systems and fully digital money. Bitcoin is the first decentralized peer to peer payment network that is fully controlled by its users without any central authority or intermediary. From the user's point of view, Bitcoin is like cash in the internet world. Bitcoin can also be viewed as the most prominent triple bookkeeping system in existence today. The change in Bitcoin's behavior against the US dollar is influenced by many factors. Basic or economic factors that may be affected include inflation rates and money supply. In this study, data was collected by obtaining all data through the API provided by binance.com and labeled with the specified attribute. The modeling is done by using the rapidminer application. The process begins by taking training data that has been provided previously. The next stage is the data testing process, all operators that have been previously determined are connected and tested using the Linear Regression operator. The purpose of testing this data is to predict stock prices from the testing data that has been made by the Split Data operator, which is 19% of the total data that has been prepared.
Zeyd Boukhers, Azeddine Bouabdallah, Cong Yang, Jan Jürjens
Since Bitcoin first appeared on the scene in 2009, cryptocurrencies have become a worldwide phenomenon as important decentralized financial assets. Their decentralized nature, however, leads to notable volatility against traditional fiat currencies, making the task of accurately forecasting the crypto-fiat exchange rate complex. In this study, we examine the various independent factors that affect the Bitcoin-Dollar exchange rate's volatility. To this end, we propose CoMForE, a multimodal AdaBoost-LSTM ensemble model, which not only utilizes historical trading data but also incorporates public sentiments from related tweets, public interest demonstrated by search volumes, and blockchain hash-rate data. Our developed model goes a step further by predicting fluctuations in the overall cryptocurrency value distribution, thus increasing its value for investment decision-making. We have subjected this method to extensive testing via comprehensive experiments, thereby validating the importance of multimodal combination over exclusive reliance on trading data. Further experiments show that our method significantly surpasses existing forecasting tools and methodologies, demonstrating a 19.29% improvement. This result underscores the influence of external independent factors on cryptocurrency volatility.
Robo-advisor is one of the most prominent innovation in the wealth management industry, and its success in Indonesia has been evident in the case of Bibit. Therefore, wealth management companies need to employ Robo-Advisor to overcome their competition. This research aims to give recommendation on asset allocation method and asset class selection for Robo-Advisors in Indonesia using Sharpe Ratio Analysis. Then, the author will analyze the robo-advisor’s performance during equity market downturn. Finally, The Robo-Advisor’s actual performance will be tested in 2018, 2019, and 2020. The Sharpe ratio analysis result showed that Robo-Advisors seeking higher risk-adjusted return should choose mean-variance optimization over risk parity for asset allocation method, and the inclusion of gold and bitcoin in a portfolio of stock mutual fund and bond mutual fund increases the risk-adjusted return of the portfolio. The proposed robo-advisor’s portfolio protected investors from equity market downturn in 2011-2010 in 83,3% of the case. Finally, the proposed robo-advisor’s portfolio generated better return for the conservative, moderate and aggressive investor during 2018, 2019, and 2020 when compared to LQ45.
We employed linear and nonlinear error correction models (ECMs) to predict the log returns of Bitcoin (BTC). The linear ECM is the best model for predicting BTC compared to the neural network and autoregressive models in terms of RMSE, MAE, and MAPE. Using a linear ECM, we are able to understand how BTC is affected by other coins. In addition, we performed Granger-causality tests on fourteen cryptocurrencies.
Kaos Teorisi, doğrusal olmayan dinamik sistemlerin davranışlarını tanımlar ve ekonomi alanında pek çok verinin modellenmesinde kullanılır. Kaos teori, sistemin doğrusal olmayan ve deterministik bir süreç olduğu varsayımlarına dayanır. Doğrusal modeller, ekonometrik sistemleri karmaşıklıklarını ortaya çıkarmakta yetersiz kalmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Bitcoin günlük fiyatlarının zamana bağlı doğrusal olmayan dinamik bir sistem tarafından üretilip üretilmediğini araştırmak ve sistemin uzun vadede geleceğe yönelik tahmin yeteneğini araştırmak ve bir tahminleme modeli oluşturmaktır. Birçok ekonomik veri serisinin kaotik davranış gösterdiği bilinmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Bitcoin fiyatlarının kaotik yapısı incelenmiş ve regresyon yöntemi kullanılarak tahmin modeli kurulmuştur. Diğer bir ifadeyle amaç, Bitcoin fiyatlarının getirilerinin kaotik bir davranış gösterip göstermediğini ortaya koyarak elde edilen gömme (embedding) boyutuna bağlı olarak regresyon yöntemini kullanarak tahmin modeli oluşturmaktır. Çalışmada, 2021 Şubat – 2021 Kasım döneminde günlük kapanış fiyatı ( $ ) veri olarak kullanılmıştır. (URL-1,2021)
Investors now have a multitude of non-traditional assets to choose from, especially from the spectrum of alternative assets, such as financial digital assets. We start from the premise that there is a high risk associated with investing in financial digital assets, along with the opportunities presented from these emerging digital markets that evolve in a decentralized environment. We will be looking at the two major digital assets, specifically Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), as per their dominance within the markets of crypto assets. This paper will focus on the evolution of financial digital assets and the impact on portfolio assessment that have allocations for BTC and ETH. In order to identify the value and potential of these financial digital assets, we will be addressing volatility and portfolio risks by means of a Vector Autoregression model on the returns of both, BTC and ETH.
We start by presenting a short description of the concept of cryptocurrency and the history behind it. Recently-developed literature that attempt to predict volatilities of cryptocurrency valuations through creation of hybrid artificial neural network models are then discussed. For the major part of the paper, we delve into details of multiple hybrid artificial neural networks that were thoroughly implemented to predict cryptocurrency volatilities. Results are reported within the form of a survey. Finally, we compare different methods and discuss their results follow at the end.
Deep Reinforcement Learning solutions have been applied to different control problems with outperforming and promising results. In this research work we have applied Proximal Policy Optimization, Soft Actor-Critic and Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning to strategy design problem of three cryptocurrency markets. Our input data includes price data and technical indicators. We have implemented a Gym environment based on cryptocurrency markets to be used with the algorithms. Our test results on unseen data shows a great potential for this approach in helping investors with an expert system to exploit the market and gain profit. Our highest gain for an unseen 66 day span is 4850 US dollars per 10000 US dollars investment. We also discuss on how a specific hyperparameter in the environment design can be used to adjust risk in the generated strategies.
Abstract Since the emergence of Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies have grown significantly, not only in terms of capitalization but also in number. Consequently, the cryptocurrency market can be a conducive arena for investors, as it offers many opportunities. However, it is difficult to understand. This study aims to describe, summarize, and segment the main trends of the entire cryptocurrency market in 2018, using data analysis tools. Accordingly, we propose a new clustering-based methodology that provides complementary views of the financial behavior of cryptocurrencies, and one that looks for associations between the clustering results, and other factors that are not involved in clustering. Particularly, the methodology involves applying three different partitional clustering algorithms, where each of them use a different representation for cryptocurrencies, namely, yearly mean, and standard deviation of the returns, distribution of returns that have not been applied to financial markets previously, and the time series of returns. Because each representation provides a different outlook of the market, we also examine the integration of the three clustering results, to obtain a fine-grained analysis of the main trends of the market. In conclusion, we analyze the association of the clustering results with other descriptive features of cryptocurrencies, including the age, technological attributes, and financial ratios derived from them. This will help to enhance the profiling of the clusters with additional descriptive insights, and to find associations with other variables. Consequently, this study describes the whole market based on graphical information, and a scalable methodology that can be reproduced by investors who want to understand the main trends in the market quickly, and those that look for cryptocurrencies with different financial performance.In our analysis of the 2018 and 2019 for extended period, we found that the market can be typically segmented in few clusters (five or less), and even considering the intersections, the 6 more populations account for 75% of the market. Regarding the associations between the clusters and descriptive features, we find associations between some clusters with volume, market capitalization, and some financial ratios, which could be explored in future research.
Financial data are expensive and highly sensitive with limited access. We aim to generate abundant datasets given the original prices while preserving the original statistical features. We introduce the Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network with Gradient Penalty (WGAN-GP) into the field of the stock market, futures market and cryptocurrency market. We train our model on various datasets, including the Hong Kong stock market, Hang Seng Index Composite stocks, precious metal futures contracts listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Japan Exchange Group, and cryptocurrency spots and perpetual contracts on Binance at various minute-level intervals. We quantify the difference of generated results (836,280 data points) and original data by MAE, MSE, RMSE and K-S distances. Results show that WGAN-GP can simulate assets prices and show the potential of a market simulator for trading analysis. We might be the first to look into multi-asset classes in a systematic approach with minute intervals across stocks, futures and cryptocurrency markets. We also contribute to quantitative analysis methodology for generated and original price data quality.
Sezercan TANIŞMAN, Abdullah Ammar Karcıoğlu, Aybars Uğur, Hasan Bulut
Finansal varlıkların gelecekteki değerlerinin tahmini yatırımcılar için varlıklarını korumak adına önemlidir. 2008 yılında hayatımıza giren ve finansal varlıklar konusunda radikal bir değişiklik olan Bitcoin ise eski ve yeni yatırımcıların ilgisini çekmiş durumdadır. Ancak Bitcoin, doğası gereği diğer finansal varlıklara göre değerini belirleyen farklı parametreler içermektedir ve geleneksel tahmin yöntemleri Bitcoin gibi çok hareketli değerlere sahip finansal varlıkları tahmin etmekte güçlük çekmektedir. Bu çalışmada çok değişkenli LSTM sinir ağı ve klasik ARIMA zaman serisi modeli kullanılarak Bitcoin’in gelecek değerinin tahmini için modeller geliştirilmiştir. Uygulanan iki modelin tahmin doğruluğu performans değerlendirme metrikleri olan hata metrikleri kullanılarak karşılaştırılmıştır. Deneysel çalışmalar sonucu, LSTM sinir ağı modeli yakın ve uzak gelecek için düşük hata oranı ile tahmin performansı gerçekleştirirken ARIMA zaman serisi modeli yakın gelecek tahmini için düşük hata oranı ile tahmin performansı gerçekleştirmiştir.
In equity trading, internalization is the predominant execution method for uninformed order flow, allowing retail brokers to realize cost savings and thereby offer price improvements to customers. In cryptocurrency trading, there are doubts as to whether informed and uninformed traders can be distinguished in the same way, leading brokers to seek cost savings through internal order matching instead. Using the historical order flow of the German cryptocurrency broker BISON, we present a prediction-based approach to internal order matching: Upon receiving a customer order, our model forecasts whether future order flow will be sufficient to neutralize the order before the settlement date. With a prediction accuracy of 85%, it enables brokers to match three-quarters of order volume internally, which is three times as much as a traditional static approach, and realize meaningful cost savings, even after accounting for common minimum price improvements.
Bitcoin is a high-risk asset with a potentially high return. Predicting Bitcoin candlestick, i.e., open, high, low, and close (OHLC) prices, can help investors make trading decisions. The objective of this study is to develop a neural network model to predict the candlestick prices of Bitcoin for the next period. Additionally, this study investigates methods to enhance the model's forecasting performance by feature transformations, specifically data normalization. This study employs two neural network algorithms, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), to forecast daily Bitcoin OHLC prices. To enhance the model's performance, we compare sliding window normalization with whole set normalization techniques. The normalization techniques investigated for both whole set and sliding window data include z-score normalization, min-max normalization, and relative change normalization. Furthermore, this study compares two candlestick prediction methods, namely using OHLC prices and using candle wick (CULR) to predict OHLC prices. The models use historical OHLC prices over several days to predict the next day's OHLC prices. The results indicate that the best-performing model is the OHLC method using GRU algorithm with sliding window z-score normalization, which achieves an MAPE of 1.95% and an RMSE of 767.71. Moreover, the sliding window normalization generally outperforms the whole set normalization for both LSTM and GRU models in terms of RMSE and MAPE. Regarding the candlestick prediction methods, there was no significant difference in their performance in terms of accuracy and forecasting error. However, our results suggest that the OHLC method performs slightly better than the CULR method.
Sowmya Dunnala, Anusha Bandla, Krishna Sai Anjana Sunkara, Ebenezer Jangam
Bitcoin is the most trending cryptocurrency which is used worldwide. Nowadays many general people or investors investing on bitcoin. But it becomes great challenge to analyze or predict the bitcoin price. Because of its fluctuations it is very hard to predict the price of the bitcoin. By this time machine learning came into picture with many models to analyze the behavior of bitcoin price by using time series data. These models will give better insights to the people who wants to invest on the bitcoin and they will able to understand about the volatility of bitcoin. We can use many machine learning models for prediction. But accuracy of the model is the deciding factor. We used ARIMA, LSTM and Facebook Prophet models and after the prediction is over, we have designed an ensemble model which merges the different models. And based upon the error rate we have decided the best model.
Nowadays, digital cryptocurrencies are the most popular asset, especially for international exchanges. Bitcoin is the earliest cryptocurrency that succeeded in being used in financial transactions. Bitcoin stores the transactions in Blockchain technology. Bitcoin price has been unstable during the time from 0.5$ to about 60,000$ since 2010. Many efforts exist to predict Bitcoin value or its fluctuations using machine learning techniques. The price prediction is usually more challenging than fluctuations prediction, and its performance metrics are improved. This study introduces a methodology to predict Bitcoin price in a dataset, including four intervals to evaluate the proposed method in different situations. The experimental results show that the generalized linear model and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) were the best machine learning techniques. The proposed model outperforms the deep learning baseline model with about 18% and 20% relative improvement in mean absolute error and means absolute percentage error, respectively. Deep learning approaches have achieved much better results than other approaches due to the automatic selection of features. Compared to the results reported in the literature, the 1D-CNN+IndRNN proposed approach has reached 81% accuracy, with an 18% improvement. In the proposed approach, 1D-CNN is responsible for feature extraction and IndRNN is responsible for learning features in the form of time series.