Machine learning algorithms learn from data and use data from databases that are mutable; therefore, the data and the results of machine learning cannot be fully trusted. Also, the machine learning process is often difficult to automate. A unified analytical framework for trustable machine learning has been presented in the literature. It proposed building a trustable machine learning system by using blockchain technology, which can store data in a permanent and immutable way. In addition, smart contracts on blockchain are used to automate the machine learning process. In the proposed framework, a core machine learning algorithm can have three implementations: server layer implementation, streaming layer implementation, and smart contract implementation. However, there are still open questions. First, the streaming layer usually deploys on edge devices and therefore has limited memory and computing power. How can we run machine learning on the streaming layer? Second, most data that are stored on blockchain are financial transactions, for which fraud detection is often needed. However, in some applications, training data are hard to obtain. Can we build good machine learning models to do fraud detection with limited training data? These questions motivated this paper; which makes two contributions. First, it proposes training a machine learning model on the server layer and saving the model with a special binary data format. Then, the streaming layer can take this blob of binary data as input and score incoming data online. The blob of binary data is very compact and can be deployed on edge devices. Second, the paper presents a new method of synthetic data generation that can enrich the training data set. Experiments show that this synthetic data generation is very effective in applications such as fraud detection in financial data.
Classification-as-a-Service (CaaS) is widely deployed today in machine intelligence stacks for a vastly diverse set of applications including anything from medical prognosis to computer vision tasks to natural language processing to identity fraud detection. The computing power required for training complex models on large datasets to perform inference to solve these problems can be very resource-intensive. A CaaS provider may cheat a customer by fraudulently bypassing expensive training procedures in favor of weaker, less computationally-intensive algorithms which yield results of reduced quality. Given a classification service supplier $S$, intermediary CaaS provider $P$ claiming to use $S$ as a classification backend, and customer $C$, our work addresses the following questions: (i) how can $P$'s claim to be using $S$ be verified by $C$? (ii) how might $S$ make performance guarantees that may be verified by $C$? and (iii) how might one design a decentralized system that incentivizes service proofing and accountability? To this end, we propose a variety of methods for $C$ to evaluate the service claims made by $P$ using probabilistic performance metrics, instance seeding, and steganography. We also propose a method of measuring the robustness of a model using a blackbox adversarial procedure, which may then be used as a benchmark or comparison to a claim made by $S$. Finally, we propose the design of a smart contract-based decentralized system that incentivizes service accountability to serve as a trusted Quality of Service (QoS) auditor.
Social media signals have been successfully used to develop large-scale predictive and anticipatory analytics. For example, forecasting stock market prices and influenza outbreaks. Recently, social data has been explored to forecast price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies, which are a novel disruptive technology with significant political and economic implications. In this paper we leverage and contrast the predictive power of social signals, specifically user behavior and communication patterns, from multiple social platforms GitHub and Reddit to forecast prices for three cyptocurrencies with high developer and community interest - Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Monero. We evaluate the performance of neural network models that rely on long short-term memory units (LSTMs) trained on historical price data and social data against price only LSTMs and baseline autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, commonly used to predict stock prices. Our results not only demonstrate that social signals reduce error when forecasting daily coin price, but also show that the language used in comments within the official communities on Reddit (r/Bitcoin, r/Ethereum, and r/Monero) are the best predictors overall. We observe that models are more accurate in forecasting price one day ahead for Bitcoin (4% root mean squared percent error) compared to Ethereum (7%) and Monero (8%).
Service system dynamics occur at the interplay between customer behaviour and a service provider's response. This kind of dynamics can effectively be modeled within the framework of queuing theory where customers' arrivals are described by point process models. However, these approaches are limited by parametric assumptions as to, for example, inter-event time distributions. In this paper, we address these limitations and propose a novel, deep neural network solution to the queuing problem. Our solution combines a recurrent neural network that models the arrival process with a recurrent generative adversarial network which models the service time distribution. We evaluate our methodology on various empirical datasets ranging from internet services (Blockchain, GitHub, Stackoverflow) to mobility service systems (New York taxi cab).
Sebastien Lugan, Paul Desbordes, Luis Xavier Ramos Tormo, Axel Legay · 5 authors
Distributed learning across a coalition of organizations allows the members of the coalition to train and share a model without sharing the data used to optimize this model. In this paper, we propose new secure architectures that guarantee preservation of data privacy, trustworthy sequence of iterative learning and equitable sharing of the learned model among each member of the coalition by using adequate encryption and blockchain mechanisms. We exemplify its deployment in the case of the distributed optimization of a deep learning convolutional neural network trained on medical images.
Chongyang Bai, Tommy E. White, Linda Xiao, V. S. Subrahmanian · 5 authors
We study the problem of predicting whether the price of the 21 most popular cryptocurrencies (according to coinmarketcap.com) will go up or down on day d, using data up to day d-1. Our C2P2 algorithm is the first algorithm to consider the fact that the price of a cryptocurrency c might depend not only on historical prices, sentiments, global stock indices, but also on the prices and predicted prices of other cryptocurrencies. C2P2 therefore does not predict cryptocurrency prices one coin at a time --- rather it uses similarity metrics in conjunction with collective classification to compare multiple cryptocurrency features to jointly predict the cryptocurrency prices for all 21 coins considered. We show that our C2P2 algorithm beats out a recent competing 2017 paper by margins varying from 5.1-83% and another Bitcoin-specific prediction paper from 2018 by 16%. In both cases, C2P2 is the winner on all cryptocurrencies considered. Moreover, we experimentally show that the use of similarity metrics within our C2P2 algorithm leads to a direct improvement for 20 out of 21 cryptocurrencies ranging from 0.4% to 17.8%. Without the similarity component, C2P2 still beats competitors on 20 out of 21 cryptocurrencies considered. We show that all these results are statistically significant via a Student's t-test with p<1e-5. Check our demo at https://www.cs.dartmouth.edu/dsail/demos/c2p2
Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency that features a distributed, decentralized and trustworthy mechanism, which has made Bitcoin a popular global transaction platform. The transaction efficiency among nations and the privacy benefiting from address anonymity of the Bitcoin network have attracted many activities such as payments, investments, gambling, and even money laundering in the past decade. Unfortunately, some criminal behaviors which took advantage of this platform were not identified. This has discouraged many governments to support cryptocurrency. Thus, the capability to identify criminal addresses becomes an important issue in the cryptocurrency network. In this paper, we propose new features in addition to those commonly used in the literature to build a classification model for detecting abnormality of Bitcoin network addresses. These features include various high orders of moments of transaction time (represented by block height) which summarizes the transaction history in an efficient way. The extracted features are trained by supervised machine learning methods on a labeling category data set. The experimental evaluation shows that these features have improved the performance of Bitcoin address classification significantly. We evaluate the results under eight classifiers and achieve the highest Micro-Fl /Macro-F1 of 87% /86% with LightGBM.
Graph edges, along with their labels, can represent information of fundamental importance, such as links between web pages, friendship between users, the rating given by users to other users or items, and much more. We introduce LEAP, a trainable, general framework for predicting the presence and properties of edges on the basis of the local structure, topology, and labels of the graph. The LEAP framework is based on the exploration and machine-learning aggregation of the paths connecting nodes in a graph. We provide several methods for performing the aggregation phase by training path aggregators, and we demonstrate the flexibility and generality of the framework by applying it to the prediction of links and user ratings in social networks. We validate the LEAP framework on two problems: link prediction, and user rating prediction. On eight large datasets, among which the arXiv collaboration network, the Yeast protein-protein interaction, and the US airlines routes network, we show that the link prediction performance of LEAP is at least as good as the current state of the art methods, such as SEAL and WLNM. Next, we consider the problem of predicting user ratings on other users: this problem is known as the edge-weight prediction problem in weighted signed networks (WSN). On Bitcoin networks, and Wikipedia RfA, we show that LEAP performs consistently better than the Fairness & Goodness based regression models, varying the amount of training edges between 10 to 90%. These examples demonstrate that LEAP, in spite of its generality, can match or best the performance of approaches that have been especially crafted to solve very specific edge prediction problems.
Avinash Barnwal, Hari Pad Bharti, Aasim Ali, Vishal Krishna Singh
Predicting the direction of assets have been an active area of study and a difficult task. Machine learning models have been used to build robust models to model the above task. Ensemble methods is one of them showing results better than a single supervised method. In this paper, we have used generative and discriminative classifiers to create the stack, particularly 3 generative and 6 discriminative classifiers and optimized over one-layer Neural Network to model the direction of price cryptocurrencies. Features used are technical indicators used are not limited to trend, momentum, volume, volatility indicators, and sentiment analysis has also been used to gain useful insight combined with the above features. For Cross-validation, Purged Walk forward cross-validation has been used. In terms of accuracy, we have done a comparative analysis of the performance of Ensemble method with Stacking and Ensemble method with blending. We have also developed a methodology for combined features importance for the stacked model. Important indicators are also identified based on feature importance.
Mehrnoosh Mirtaheri, Sami Abu-El-Haija, Fred Morstatter, Greg Ver Steeg · 5 authors
Interest surrounding cryptocurrencies, digital or virtual currencies that are used as a medium for financial transactions, has grown tremendously in recent years. The anonymity surrounding these currencies makes investors particularly susceptible to fraud---such as ``pump and dump'' scams---where the goal is to artificially inflate the perceived worth of a currency, luring victims into investing before the fraudsters can sell their holdings. Because of the speed and relative anonymity offered by social platforms such as Twitter and Telegram, social media has become a preferred platform for scammers who wish to spread false hype about the cryptocurrency they are trying to pump. In this work we propose and evaluate a computational approach that can automatically identify pump and dump scams as they unfold by combining information across social media platforms. We also develop a multi-modal approach for predicting whether a particular pump attempt will succeed or not. Finally, we analyze the prevalence of bots in cryptocurrency related tweets, and observe a significant increase in bot activity during the pump attempts.
Johannes Beck, Roberta Huang, David Lindner, Tian Guo · 7 authors
The ability to track and monitor relevant and important news in real-time is of crucial interest in multiple industrial sectors. In this work, we focus on the set of cryptocurrency news, which recently became of emerging interest to the general and financial audience. In order to track relevant news in real-time, we (i) match news from the web with tweets from social media, (ii) track their intraday tweet activity and (iii) explore different machine learning models for predicting the number of the article mentions on Twitter within the first 24 hours after its publication. We compare several machine learning models, such as linear extrapolation, linear and random forest autoregressive models, and a sequence-to-sequence neural network. We find that the random forest autoregressive model behaves comparably to more complex models in the majority of tasks.
In this paper, reinforcement learning is applied to the problem of optimizing market making. A multi-agent reinforcement learning framework is used to optimally place limit orders that lead to successful trades. The framework consists of two agents. The macro-agent optimizes on making the decision to buy, sell, or hold an asset. The micro-agent optimizes on placing limit orders within the limit order book. For the context of this paper, the proposed framework is applied and studied on the Bitcoin cryptocurrency market. The goal of this paper is to show that reinforcement learning is a viable strategy that can be applied to complex problems (with complex environments) such as market making.
Muhammad Shayan, Clement Fung, Chris J. M. Yoon, Ivan Beschastnikh
Federated Learning is the current state of the art in supporting secure multi-party machine learning (ML): data is maintained on the owner's device and the updates to the model are aggregated through a secure protocol. However, this process assumes a trusted centralized infrastructure for coordination, and clients must trust that the central service does not use the byproducts of client data. In addition to this, a group of malicious clients could also harm the performance of the model by carrying out a poisoning attack. As a response, we propose Biscotti: a fully decentralized peer to peer (P2P) approach to multi-party ML, which uses blockchain and cryptographic primitives to coordinate a privacy-preserving ML process between peering clients. Our evaluation demonstrates that Biscotti is scalable, fault tolerant, and defends against known attacks. For example, Biscotti is able to protect the privacy of an individual client's update and the performance of the global model at scale when 30% of adversaries are trying to poison the model. The implementation can be found at: https://github.com/DistributedML/Biscotti
Marc Jourdan, Sébastien Blandin, Laura Wynter, Pralhad Deshpande
The Bitcoin transaction graph is a public data structure organized as transactions between addresses, each associated with a logical entity. In this work, we introduce a complete probabilistic model of the Bitcoin Blockchain, setting the basis for follow-up AI applications on Bitcoin transactions. We first formulate a set of conditional dependencies induced by the Bitcoin protocol at the block level and derive a corresponding fully observed graphical model of a Bitcoin block. We then extend the model to include hidden entity attributes such as the functional category of the associated logical agent and derive asymptotic bounds on the privacy properties implied by this model. At the network level, we show evidence of complex transaction-to-transaction behavior and present a relevant discriminative model of the agent categories. Performance of both the block-based graphical model and the network-level discriminative model are evaluated on a subset of the public Bitcoin Blockchain.
This research aims to identify how Bitcoin-related news publications and\nonline discourse are expressed in Bitcoin exchange movements of price and\nvolume. Being inherently digital, all Bitcoin-related fundamental data (from\nexchanges, as well as transactional data directly from the blockchain) is\navailable online, something that is not true for traditional businesses or\ncurrencies traded on exchanges. This makes Bitcoin an interesting subject for\nsuch research, as it enables the mapping of sentiment to fundamental events\nthat might otherwise be inaccessible. Furthermore, Bitcoin discussion largely\ntakes place on online forums and chat channels. In stock trading, the value of\nsentiment data in trading decisions has been demonstrated numerous times [1]\n[2] [3], and this research aims to determine whether there is value in such\ndata for Bitcoin trading models. To achieve this, data over the year 2015 has\nbeen collected from Bitcointalk.org, (the biggest Bitcoin forum in post\nvolume), established news sources such as Bloomberg and the Wall Street\nJournal, the complete /r/btc and /r/Bitcoin subreddits, and the bitcoin-otc and\nbitcoin-dev IRC channels. By analyzing this data on sentiment and volume, we\nfind weak to moderate correlations between forum, news, and Reddit sentiment\nand movements in price and volume from 1 to 5 days after the sentiment was\nexpressed. A Granger causality test confirms the predictive causality of the\nsentiment on the daily percentage price and volume movements, and at the same\ntime underscores the predictive causality of market movements on sentiment\nexpressions in online communities\n
Ravi Kiran Raman, Roman Vaculín, Michael Hind, Sekou L. Remy · 9 authors
Large-scale computational experiments, often running over weeks and over large datasets, are used extensively in fields such as epidemiology, meteorology, computational biology, and healthcare to understand phenomena, and design high-stakes policies affecting everyday health and economy. For instance, the OpenMalaria framework is a computationally-intensive simulation used by various non-governmental and governmental agencies to understand malarial disease spread and effectiveness of intervention strategies, and subsequently design healthcare policies. Given that such shared results form the basis of inferences drawn, technological solutions designed, and day-to-day policies drafted, it is essential that the computations are validated and trusted. In particular, in a multi-agent environment involving several independent computing agents, a notion of trust in results generated by peers is critical in facilitating transparency, accountability, and collaboration. Using a novel combination of distributed validation of atomic computation blocks and a blockchain-based immutable audits mechanism, this work proposes a universal framework for distributed trust in computations. In particular we address the scalaibility problem by reducing the storage and communication costs using a lossy compression scheme. This framework guarantees not only verifiability of final results, but also the validity of local computations, and its cost-benefit tradeoffs are studied using a synthetic example of training a neural network.
Nino Antulov-Fantulin, Dijana Tolić, Matija Piškorec, Ce Zhang · 5 authors
In this paper, we study the possibility of inferring early warning indicators (EWIs) for periods of extreme bitcoin price volatility using features obtained from Bitcoin daily transaction graphs. We infer the low-dimensional representations of transaction graphs in the time period from 2012 to 2017 using Bitcoin blockchain, and demonstrate how these representations can be used to predict extreme price volatility events. Our EWI, which is obtained with a non-negative decomposition, contains more predictive information than those obtained with singular value decomposition or scalar value of the total Bitcoin transaction volume.
Gihan J. Mendis, Yifu Wu, Jin Wei, Moein Sabounchi · 5 authors
Thanks to the advances in machine learning, data-driven analysis tools have become valuable solutions for various applications. However, there still remain essential challenges to develop effective data-driven methods because of the need to acquire a large amount of data and to have sufficient computing power to handle the data. In many instances these challenges are addressed by relying on a dominant cloud computing vendor, but, although commercial cloud vendors provide valuable platforms for data analytics, they can suffer from a lack of transparency, security, and privacy-perservation. Furthermore, reliance on cloud servers prevents applying big data analytics in environments where the computing power is scattered. To address these challenges, a decentralize, secure, and privacy-preserving computing paradigm is proposed to enable an asynchronized cooperative computing process amongst scattered and untrustworthy computing nodes that may have limited computing power and computing intelligence. This paradigm is designed by exploring blockchain, decentralized learning, homomorphic encryption, and software defined networking(SDN) techniques. The performance of the proposed paradigm is evaluated via different scenarios in the simulation section.
Bitcoin is one of the most prominent decentralized digital cryptocurrencies. Ability to understand which factors drive the fluctuations of the Bitcoin price and to what extent they are predictable is interesting both from the theoretical and practical perspective. In this paper, we study the problem of the Bitcoin short-term volatility forecasting based on volatility history and order book data. Order book, consisting of buy and sell orders over time, reflects the intention of the market and is closely related to the evolution of volatility. We propose temporal mixture models capable of adaptively exploiting both volatility history and order book features. By leveraging rolling and incremental learning and evaluation procedures, we demonstrate the prediction performance of our model as well as studying the robustness, in comparison to a variety of statistical and machine learning baselines. Meanwhile, our temporal mixture model enables to decipher the time-varying effect of order book features on volatility. It demonstrates the prospect of our temporal mixture model as an interpretable forecasting framework over heterogeneous Bitcoin data.
Morpheo is a transparent and secure machine learning platform collecting and analysing large datasets. It aims at building state-of-the art prediction models in various fields where data are sensitive. Indeed, it offers strong privacy of data and algorithm, by preventing anyone to read the data, apart from the owner and the chosen algorithms. Computations in Morpheo are orchestrated by a blockchain infrastructure, thus offering total traceability of operations. Morpheo aims at building an attractive economic ecosystem around data prediction by channelling crypto-money from prediction requests to useful data and algorithms providers. Morpheo is designed to handle multiple data sources in a transfer learning approach in order to mutualize knowledge acquired from large datasets for applications with smaller but similar datasets.
Rakshit Agrawal, Luca de Alfaro, Vassilis Polychronopoulos
Many prediction problems can be phrased as inferences over local neighborhoods of graphs. The graph represents the interaction between entities, and the neighborhood of each entity contains information that allows the inferences or predictions. We present an approach for applying machine learning directly to such graph neighborhoods, yielding predicitons for graph nodes on the basis of the structure of their local neighborhood and the features of the nodes in it. Our approach allows predictions to be learned directly from examples, bypassing the step of creating and tuning an inference model or summarizing the neighborhoods via a fixed set of hand-crafted features. The approach is based on a multi-level architecture built from Long Short-Term Memory neural nets (LSTMs); the LSTMs learn how to summarize the neighborhood from data. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique on a synthetic example and on real-world data related to crowdsourced grading, Bitcoin transactions, and Wikipedia edit reversions.