Training and deploying the large language models requires a large mount of computational resource because the language models contain billions of parameters and the text has thousands of tokens. Another problem is that the large language models are static. They are fixed after the training process. To tackle these issues, in this paper, we propose to train and deploy the dynamic large language model on blockchains, which have high computation performance and are distributed across a network of computers. A blockchain is a secure, decentralized, and transparent system that allows for the creation of a tamper-proof ledger for transactions without the need for intermediaries. The dynamic large language models can continuously learn from the user input after the training process. Our method provides a new way to develop the large language models and also sheds a light on the next generation artificial intelligence systems.
Lubdhak Mondal, Udeshya Raj, S Abinandhan, Began Gowsik S · 6 authors
This study investigates the relationship between narratives conveyed through microblogging platforms, namely Twitter, and the value of crypto assets. Our study provides a unique technique to build narratives about cryptocurrency by combining topic modelling of short texts with sentiment analysis. First, we used an unsupervised machine learning algorithm to discover the latent topics within the massive and noisy textual data from Twitter, and then we revealed 4-5 cryptocurrency-related narratives, including financial investment, technological advancement related to crypto, financial and political regulations, crypto assets, and media coverage. In a number of situations, we noticed a strong link between our narratives and crypto prices. Our work connects the most recent innovation in economics, Narrative Economics, to a new area of study that combines topic modelling and sentiment analysis to relate consumer behaviour to narratives.
Blockchains provide a mechanism through which mutually distrustful remote parties can reach consensus on the state of a ledger of information. With the great acceleration with which this space is developed, the demand for those seeking to learn about blockchain also grows. Being a technical subject, it can be quite intimidating to start learning. For this reason, the main objective of this project was to apply machine learning models to extract information from whitepapers and academic articles focused on the blockchain area to organize this information and aid users to navigate the space.
The cryptocurrency ecosystem has been the centre of discussion on many social media platforms, following its noted volatility and varied opinions. Twitter is rapidly being utilised as a news source and a medium for bitcoin discussion. Our algorithm seeks to use historical prices and sentiment of tweets to forecast the price of Bitcoin. In this study, we develop an end-to-end model that can forecast the sentiment of a set of tweets (using a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers - based Neural Network Model) and forecast the price of Bitcoin (using Gated Recurrent Unit) using the predicted sentiment and other metrics like historical cryptocurrency price data, tweet volume, a user's following, and whether or not a user is verified. The sentiment prediction gave a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 9.45%, an average of real-time data, and test data. The mean absolute percent error for the price prediction was 3.6%.
Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) represent deeds of ownership, based on blockchain technologies and smart contracts, of unique crypto assets on digital art forms (e.g., artworks or collectibles). In the spotlight after skyrocketing in 2021, NFTs have attracted the attention of crypto enthusiasts and investors intent on placing promising investments in this profitable market. However, the NFT financial performance prediction has not been widely explored to date. In this work, we address the above problem based on the hypothesis that NFT images and their textual descriptions are essential proxies to predict the NFT selling prices. To this purpose, we propose MERLIN, a novel multimodal deep learning framework designed to train Transformer-based language and visual models, along with graph neural network models, on collections of NFTs' images and texts. A key aspect in MERLIN is its independence on financial features, as it exploits only the primary data a user interested in NFT trading would like to deal with, i.e., NFT images and textual descriptions. By learning dense representations of such data, a price-category classification task is performed by MERLIN models, which can also be tuned according to user preferences in the inference phase to mimic different risk-return investment profiles. Experimental evaluation on a publicly available dataset has shown that MERLIN models achieve significant performances according to several financial assessment criteria, fostering profitable investments, and also beating baseline machine-learning classifiers based on financial features.
Blockchain, also coined as decentralized AI, has the potential to empower AI to be more trustworthy by creating a decentralized trust of privacy, security, and audibility. However, systematic studies on the design principle of blockchain as a trust engine for an integrated society of cyber-physical-social-system (CPSS) are still absent. In this article, we provide an initiative for seeking the design principle of blockchain for a better digital world. Using a hybrid method of qualitative and quantitative studies, we examine the past origin, the current development, and the future directions of blockchain design principles. We have three findings. First, the answer to whether blockchain lives up to its original design principle as a distributed database is controversial. Second, the current development of the blockchain community reveals a taxonomy of 7 categories, namely, privacy and security, scalability, decentralization, applicability, governance and regulation, system design, and cross-chain interoperability. Both research and practice are more centered around the first category of privacy and security and the fourth category of applicability. Future scholars, practitioners, and policy-makers have vast opportunities in other, much less exploited facets and the synthesis at the interface of multiple aspects. Finally, in counter-examples, we conclude that a synthetic solution that crosses discipline boundaries is necessary to close the gaps between the current design of blockchain and the design principle of a trust engine for a truly intelligent world.
Predicting stock market movements has always been of great interest to investors and an active area of research. Research has proven that popularity of products is highly influenced by what people talk about. Social media like Twitter, Reddit have become hotspots of such influences. This paper investigates the impact of social media posts on close price prediction of stocks using Twitter and Reddit posts. Our objective is to integrate sentiment of social media data with historical stock data and study its effect on closing prices using time series models. We carried out rigorous experiments and deep analysis using multiple deep learning based models on different datasets to study the influence of posts by executives and general people on the close price. Experimental results on multiple stocks (Apple and Tesla) and decentralised currencies (Bitcoin and Ethereum) consistently show improvements in prediction on including social media data and greater improvements on including executive posts.
Bitcoin, with its ever-growing popularity, has demonstrated extreme price volatility since its origin. This volatility, together with its decentralised nature, make Bitcoin highly subjective to speculative trading as compared to more traditional assets. In this paper, we propose a multimodal model for predicting extreme price fluctuations. This model takes as input a variety of correlated assets, technical indicators, as well as Twitter content. In an in-depth study, we explore whether social media discussions from the general public on Bitcoin have predictive power for extreme price movements. A dataset of 5,000 tweets per day containing the keyword `Bitcoin' was collected from 2015 to 2021. This dataset, called PreBit, is made available online. In our hybrid model, we use sentence-level FinBERT embeddings, pretrained on financial lexicons, so as to capture the full contents of the tweets and feed it to the model in an understandable way. By combining these embeddings with a Convolutional Neural Network, we built a predictive model for significant market movements. The final multimodal ensemble model includes this NLP model together with a model based on candlestick data, technical indicators and correlated asset prices. In an ablation study, we explore the contribution of the individual modalities. Finally, we propose and backtest a trading strategy based on the predictions of our models with varying prediction threshold and show that it can used to build a profitable trading strategy with a reduced risk over a `hold' or moving average strategy.
Distributed ledger systems have become more prominent and successful in recent years, with a focus on blockchains and cryptocurrency. This has led to various misunderstandings about both the technology itself and its capabilities, as in many cases blockchain and cryptocurrency is used synonymously and other applications are often overlooked. Therefore, as a whole, the view of distributed ledger technology beyond blockchains and cryptocurrencies is very limited. Existing vocabularies and ontologies often focus on single aspects of the technology, or in some cases even just on one product. This potentially leads to other types of distributed ledgers and their possible use cases being neglected. In this paper, we present a knowledge graph and an ontology for distributed ledger technologies, which includes security considerations to model aspects such as threats and vulnerabilities, application domains, as well as relevant standards and regulations. Such a knowledge graph improves the overall understanding of distributed ledgers, reveals their strengths, and supports the work of security personnel, i.e. analysts and system architects. We discuss potential uses and follow semantic web best practices to evaluate and publish the ontology and knowledge graph.
Ali Raheman, Anton Kolonin, Igors Fridkins, Ikram Ansari · 5 authors
In this paper, we explore the usability of different natural language processing models for the sentiment analysis of social media applied to financial market prediction, using the cryptocurrency domain as a reference. We study how the different sentiment metrics are correlated with the price movements of Bitcoin. For this purpose, we explore different methods to calculate the sentiment metrics from a text finding most of them not very accurate for this prediction task. We find that one of the models outperforms more than 20 other public ones and makes it possible to fine-tune it efficiently given its interpretable nature. Thus we confirm that interpretable artificial intelligence and natural language processing methods might be more valuable practically than non-explainable and non-interpretable ones. In the end, we analyse potential causal connections between the different sentiment metrics and the price movements.
Jan 1, 2022·Proceedings of the 2022 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies
The rapid spread of information over social media influences quantitative trading and investments. The growing popularity of speculative trading of highly volatile assets such as cryptocurrencies and meme stocks presents a fresh challenge in the financial realm. Investigating such "bubbles" - periods of sudden anomalous behavior of markets are critical in better understanding investor behavior and market dynamics. However, high volatility coupled with massive volumes of chaotic social media texts, especially for underexplored assets like cryptocoins pose a challenge to existing methods. Taking the first step towards NLP for cryptocoins, we present and publicly release CryptoBubbles, a novel multi-span identification task for bubble detection, and a dataset of more than 400 cryptocoins from 9 exchanges over five years spanning over two million tweets. Further, we develop a set of sequence-to-sequence hyperbolic models suited to this multi-span identification task based on the power-law dynamics of cryptocurrencies and user behavior on social media. We further test the effectiveness of our models under zero-shot settings on a test set of Reddit posts pertaining to 29 "meme stocks'', which see an increase in trade volume due to social media hype. Through quantitative, qualitative, and zero-shot analyses on Reddit and Twitter spanning cryptocoins and meme-stocks, we show the practical applicability of CryptoBubbles and hyperbolic models.
A key component of blockchain technology is the ledger, viz., a database that, unlike standard databases, keeps in memory the complete history of past transactions as in a notarial archive for the benefit of any future test. In second-generation blockchains such as Ethereum the ledger is coupled with smart contracts, which enable the automation of transactions associated with agreements between the parties of a financial or commercial nature. The coupling of smart contracts and ledgers provides the technological background for very innovative application areas, such as Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs), Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) and Decentralized Finance (DeFi), which propelled blockchains beyond cryptocurrencies that were the only focus of first generation blockchains such as the Bitcoin. However, the currently used implementation of smart contracts as arbitrary programming constructs has made them susceptible to dangerous bugs that can be exploited maliciously and has moved their semantics away from that of legal contracts. We propose here to recompose the split and recover the reliability of databases by formalizing a notion of contract modelled as a finite-state automaton with well-defined computational characteristics derived from an encoding in terms of allocations of resources to actors, as an alternative to the approach based on programming. To complete the work, we use temporal logic as the basis for an abstract query language that is effectively suited to the historical nature of the information kept in the ledger.
Ethereum platform operates with rich spectrum of data structures and hashing and coding functions. The main source describing them is the Yellow paper, complemented by a lot of informal blogs. These sources are somehow limited. In particular, the Yellow paper does not ideally balance brevity and detail, in some parts it is very detail, while too shallow elsewhere. The blogs on the other hand are often too vague and in certain cases contain incorrect information. As a solution, we provide this document, which summarises data structures used in Ethereum. The goal is to provide sufficient detail while keeping brevity. Sufficiently detailed formal view is enriched with examples to extend on clarity.
The stock market has been a popular topic of interest in the recent past. The growth in the inflation rate has compelled people to invest in the stock and commodity markets and other areas rather than saving. Further, the ability of Deep Learning models to make predictions on the time series data has been proven time and again. Technical analysis on the stock market with the help of technical indicators has been the most common practice among traders and investors. One more aspect is the sentiment analysis - the emotion of the investors that shows the willingness to invest. A variety of techniques have been used by people around the globe involving basic Machine Learning and Neural Networks. Ranging from the basic linear regression to the advanced neural networks people have experimented with all possible techniques to predict the stock market. It's evident from recent events how news and headlines affect the stock markets and cryptocurrencies. This paper proposes an ensemble of state-of-the-art methods for predicting stock prices. Firstly sentiment analysis of the news and the headlines for the company Apple Inc, listed on the NASDAQ is performed using a version of BERT, which is a pre-trained transformer model by Google for Natural Language Processing (NLP). Afterward, a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) predicts the stock price for Apple Inc using the technical indicators, stock indexes of various countries, some commodities, and historical prices along with the sentiment scores. Comparison is done with baseline models like - Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), vanilla GAN, and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model.
This chapter provides an in-depth engagement with the project of expressing legal propositions in machine-readable language. Smart Contracts use computer technology to automate the performance of aspects of commercial agreements. Yet how can there be confidence that the computer code is faithful to the intentions of the parties? To understand the depth and subtlety of this question requires an exploration of natural and computer languages, of the semantics of expressions in those languages, and of the gap that exists between the disciplines of law and computer science. It builds on the metaphor of a ‘contract stack’ with the idea of a ‘language stack’ and illustrates the various layers of language—both natural and formal—that might exist and interact in any instantiation of a ‘smart legal contract’. It also explains the importance of language design in the development of reliable smart contracts, including the use of domain specific languages and the design of controlled natural languages within the specific methodology of computable contracts. Reflecting the author’s original research in the area, this chapter examines ‘computable contracts’ in particular detail—a sub-type of ‘smart contracts’ in which the top two layers of the language stack (‘natural language’ and ‘specification language’) have been merged. As well as providing an in-depth overview of theory, this chapter provides an up-to-date survey of existing projects and reflections on directions for future research.
This work presents a large-scale analysis of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) references within news articles and scientific publications between 2011 and 2019. We implement word association measurements that automatically identify shifts in language co-occurring with AI/ML and quantify the strength of these word associations. Our results highlight the evolution of perceptions and definitions around AI/ML and detect emerging application areas, models, and systems (e.g., blockchain and cybersecurity). Recent small-scale, manual studies have explored AI/ML discourse within the general public, the policymaker community, and researcher community, but are limited in their scalability and longevity. Our methods provide new views into public perceptions and subject-area expert discussions of AI/ML and greatly exceed the explanative power of prior work.
Modern mathematics is built on the idea that proofs should be translatable into formal proofs, whose validity is an objective question, decidable by a computer. Yet, in practice, proofs are informal and may omit many details. An agent considers a proof valid if they trust that it could be expanded into a machine-verifiable proof. A proof's validity can thus become a subjective matter and lead to a debate, which may be difficult to settle. Hence, while the concept of valid proof is well-defined, the process to establish validity is itself a complex multi-agent problem. We introduce the SPRIG protocol. SPRIG allows agents to propose and verify succinct and informative proofs in a decentralized fashion; the trust is established by agents being able to request more details in the proof steps; debates, if they arise, must isolate details of proofs and, if they persist, go down to machine-level details, where they are automatically settled. A structure of bounties and stakes is set to incentivize agents to act in good faith. We propose a game-theoretic discussion of SPRIG, showing how agents with various types of information interact, leading to a proof tree with an appropriate level of detail and to the invalidation of wrong proofs, and we discuss resilience against various attacks. We then analyze a simplified model, characterize its equilibria and compute the agents' level of trust. SPRIG is designed to run as a smart contract on a blockchain platform. This allows anonymous agents to participate in the verification debate, and to contribute with their information. The smart contract mediates the interactions, settles debates, and guarantees that bounties and stakes are paid as specified. SPRIG enables new applications, such as the issuance of bounties for open problems, and the creation of derivatives markets, allowing agents to inject more information pertaining to proofs.
Abstract A smart contract is a program executed on a blockchain, based on which many cryptocurrencies are implemented, and is being used for automating transactions. Due to the large amount of money that smart contracts deal with, there is a surging demand for a method that can statically and formally verify them. This tool paper describes our type-based static verification tool Helmholtz for Michelson, which is a statically typed stack-based language for writing smart contracts that are executed on the blockchain platform Tezos. Helmholtz is designed on top of our extension of Michelson’s type system with refinement types. Helmholtz takes a Michelson program annotated with a user-defined specification written in the form of a refinement type as input; it then typechecks the program against the specification based on the refinement type system, discharging the generated verification conditions with the SMT solver Z3. We briefly introduce our refinement type system for the core calculus Mini-Michelson of Michelson, which incorporates the characteristic features such as compound datatypes (e.g., lists and pairs), higher-order functions, and invocation of another contract. Helmholtz successfully verifies several practical Michelson programs, including one that transfers money to an account and that checks a digital signature.
Recent studies in big data analytics and natural language processing develop automatic techniques in analyzing sentiment in the social media information. In addition, the growing user base of social media and the high volume of posts also provide valuable sentiment information to predict the price fluctuation of the cryptocurrency. This research is directed to predicting the volatile price movement of cryptocurrency by analyzing the sentiment in social media and finding the correlation between them. While previous work has been developed to analyze sentiment in English social media posts, we propose a method to identify the sentiment of the Chinese social media posts from the most popular Chinese social media platform Sina-Weibo. We develop the pipeline to capture Weibo posts, describe the creation of the crypto-specific sentiment dictionary, and propose a long short-term memory (LSTM) based recurrent neural network along with the historical cryptocurrency price movement to predict the price trend for future time frames. The conducted experiments demonstrate the proposed approach outperforms the state of the art auto regressive based model by 18.5% in precision and 15.4% in recall.
Companies today are racing to leverage the latest digital technologies, such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, and cloud computing. However, many companies report that their strategies did not achieve the anticipated business results. This study is the first to apply state of the art NLP models on unstructured data to understand the different clusters of digital strategy patterns that companies are Adopting. We achieve this by analyzing earnings calls from Fortune Global 500 companies between 2015 and 2019. We use Transformer based architecture for text classification which show a better understanding of the conversation context. We then investigate digital strategy patterns by applying clustering analysis. Our findings suggest that Fortune 500 companies use four distinct strategies which are product led, customer experience led, service led, and efficiency led. This work provides an empirical baseline for companies and researchers to enhance our understanding of the field.
Andrea Di Sorbo, Sonia Laudanna, Anna Vacca, Corrado Aaron Visaggio · 5 authors
Nowadays, more and more applications are developed for running on a distributed ledger technology, namely dApps. The business logic of dApps is usually implemented within smart contracts developed through Solidity, a programming language for writing smart contracts on different blockchain platforms, including the popular Ethereum. In Ethereum, the smart contracts run on the machines of miners and the gas corresponds to the execution fee compensating such computing resources. However, the deployment and execution costs of a smart contract depend on the implementation choices done by developers. Unappropriated design choices could lead to higher gas consumption than necessary. In this paper, we (i) identify a set of 19 Solidity code smells affecting the deployment and transaction costs of a smart contract, and (ii) assess the relevance of such smells through a survey involving 34 participants. On top of these smells, we propose GasMet, a suite of metrics for statically evaluating the code quality of a smart contract from the gas consumption perspective. An experiment involving 2,186 smart contracts demonstrates that the proposed metrics have direct associations with deployment costs. The metrics in our suite can be used for more easily identifying source code segments that need optimizations.
In recent years, disinformation including fake news, has became a global phenomenon due to its explosive growth, particularly on social media. The wide spread of disinformation and fake news can cause detrimental societal effects. Despite the recent progress in detecting disinformation and fake news, it is still non-trivial due to its complexity, diversity, multi-modality, and costs of fact-checking or annotation. The goal of this chapter is to pave the way for appreciating the challenges and advancements via: (1) introducing the types of information disorder on social media and examine their differences and connections; (2) describing important and emerging tasks to combat disinformation for characterization, detection and attribution; and (3) discussing a weak supervision approach to detect disinformation with limited labeled data. We then provide an overview of the chapters in this book that represent the recent advancements in three related parts: (1) user engagements in the dissemination of information disorder; (2) techniques on detecting and mitigating disinformation; and (3) trending issues such as ethics, blockchain, clickbaits, etc. We hope this book to be a convenient entry point for researchers, practitioners, and students to understand the problems and challenges, learn state-of-the-art solutions for their specific needs, and quickly identify new research problems in their domains.
Cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, are becoming increasingly popular, having been widely used as an exchange medium in areas such as financial transaction and asset transfer verification. However, there has been a lack of solutions that can support real-time price prediction to cope with high currency volatility, handle massive heterogeneous data volumes, including social media sentiments, while supporting fault tolerance and persistence in real time, and provide real-time adaptation of learning algorithms to cope with new price and sentiment data. In this paper we introduce KryptoOracle, a novel real-time and adaptive cryptocurrency price prediction platform based on Twitter sentiments. The integrative and modular platform is based on (i) a Spark-based architecture which handles the large volume of incoming data in a persistent and fault tolerant way; (ii) an approach that supports sentiment analysis which can respond to large amounts of natural language processing queries in real time; and (iii) a predictive method grounded on online learning in which a model adapts its weights to cope with new prices and sentiments. Besides providing an architectural design, the paper also describes the KryptoOracle platform implementation and experimental evaluation. Overall, the proposed platform can help accelerate decision-making, uncover new opportunities and provide more timely insights based on the available and ever-larger financial data volume and variety.
Jae-Yun Kim, Jun-Mo Lee, Yeon-Jae Koo, Sang-Hyeon Park · 5 authors
As ethereum blockchain has become popular, the number of users and transactions has skyrocketed, causing an explosive increase of its data size. As a result, ordinary clients using PCs or smartphones cannot easily bootstrap as a full node, but rely on other full nodes such as the miners to run or verify transactions. This may affect the security of ethereum, so light bootstrapping techniques such as fast sync has been proposed to download only parts of full data, yet the space overhead is still too high. One of the biggest space overhead that cannot easily be reduced is caused by saving the state of all accounts in the block's state trie. Fortunately, we found that more than 90% of accounts are inactive and old transactions are hard to be manipulated. Based on these observations, this paper propose a novel optimization technique called ethanos that can reduce bootstrapping cost by sweeping inactive accounts periodically and by not downloading old transactions. If an inactive account becomes active, ethanos restore its state by running a restoration transaction. Also, ethanos gives incentives for archive nodes to maintain the old transactions for possible re-verification. We implemented ethanos by instrumenting the go-ethereum (geth) client and evaluated with the real 113 million transactions from 14 million accounts between 7M-th and 8M-th blocks in ethereum. Our experimental result shows that ethanos can reduce the size of the account state by half, which, if combined with removing old transactions, may reduce the storage size for bootstrapping to around 1GB. This would be reasonable enough for ordinary clients to bootstrap on their personal devices.