This paper introduces the Universal Turing Market Machine (UTMM): a unified, neuromorphic market infrastructure designed to compute, adapt, and coordinate economic activity autonomously. Building on Hayek’s theory of spontaneous order and Ashby’s Law of Requisite Variety, the paper argues that while markets themselves emerge naturally, the computational substrate that supports them can be intentionally designed. The UTMM integrates sensory inputs (e.g., IoT data), distributed ledger signaling, evolutionary compute layers, and real-world actuators to form an adaptive, nervous-system-like architecture for market coordination. This framework enables transparent, auditable, self-organizing market processes capable of discovering their own requisite dimensionality. The paper formalizes these systems under the term Adaptive Resource-Coordinated Organisms (ARCOs), digital-economic organisms that merge machine learning, blockchain, and adaptive market solvers into a cohesive evolutionary market machine.
Behavioral finance has emerged as a critical framework for understanding market dynamics beyond traditional rational agent models. This research presents a comprehensive multimodal approach to behavioral finance analysis, integrating market data, macroeconomic indicators, news sentiment, cryptocurrency metrics, Web3 analytics, GitHub development activity, and social sentiment to test five advanced hypotheses regarding behavioral pattern identification and market anomaly detection. The study employs an ultra-comprehensive data pipeline processing 30,400 samples across seven distinct data sources, generating 91 engineered features representing behavioral biases, investment patterns, and market psychology. Advanced machine learning techniques including Principal Component Analysis, t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding, Variational Autoencoders, K-Means, Hierarchical Clustering, DBSCAN, Isolation Forest, One-Class SVM, and Elliptic Envelope are applied to identify behavioral structures and detect anomalies. Statistical validation through chi-square tests, ANOVA, Granger causality analysis, and lagged correlation studies demonstrates that three of five hypotheses (60%) achieve statistical significance at p < 0.05. Key findings reveal that behavioral structures exist and correspond to canonical biases (chi-square = 3406.780, p < 0.001), cluster assignments maintain moderate stability across market regimes (Jaccard similarity = 0.300), and sentiment and macroeconomic factors exhibit 65 significant causal relationships with behavioral patterns. However, multimodal data integration does not uniformly improve clustering quality (Silhouette score decrease of 0.116), and cluster-conditioned anomaly detection fails to outperform global methods (F1-score decrease of 0.017). These findings contribute to behavioral finance theory while providing practical applications for investment management, fraud detection, and regulatory compliance.
The rise of Decentralized Finance (DeFi), enabled by blockchain technology, has introduced open and transparent financial ecosystems that contrast sharply with traditional financial systems. While DeFi expands the financial landscape and democratizes participation in global markets, it also introduces new complexities. Classic valuation models used in traditional finance often fall short in this context. However, DeFis transparency---where all transactions are publicly recorded---offers a unique opportunity to model and understand market behavior using modern analytical tools. Motivated by the challenges and opportunities of DeFi, the main goal of this thesis is to propose novel methods to understand market dynamics through the lens of network science and machine learning. To this end, we focus on four specific objectives: (i) assess whether structural information from blockchain transaction networks provides predictive signals beyond traditional indicators; (ii) develop robust trust-based valuation metrics for DeFi protocols; (iii) develop a framework for forecasting financial time series through uncertainty-aware machine learning architectures; (iv) construct diversified portfolios using network-based representations of asset relationships. First, using Ethereum as a case study, we analyze the influence of the transaction network on market trends by comparing the performance of two machine learning models: one that uses technical analysis and social media indicators commonly found in the literature and another that incorporates structural properties of the transaction network. We found that by including transaction network information, we can anticipate 46% more uptrends and 19% more downtrends, highlighting the predictive power of the transaction network. Second, we introduce the TVL/MCAP bands as a tool to identify periods of overconfidence and underconfidence in the DeFi market. We show that extreme values of this indicator can signal price movements: values above the 95th percentile are associated with a 15\% higher return in the following month, while values below the 5th percentile anticipate declines, highlighting investor confidence as a key market driver. Third, we address the need for forecasts that not only anticipate market trends but also quantify the uncertainty surrounding them. To this end, we integrate Reservoir Computing (RC) with conformal prediction methods to provide statistically rigorous forecasts along with prediction intervals. We found that RC outperform traditional econometric models, particularly in anticipating the trend of financial time series. Furthermore, we show that conformal methods, especially quantile-conformal variants, significantly improve forecast reliability while adapting to market volatility. Finally, we address the challenge of portfolio optimization using network-based methods. Specifically, we model the network of relationships between cryptocurrencies to obtain a market representation that enables selecting a more diversified portfolio. We find that peripheral assets enhance portfolio stability and returns, while links bridging network communities carry higher risk. Thereby, these results highlight the importance of structural diversification in volatile markets. In addition, we contribute to refining pairs trading strategies by proposing the Hurst exponent to identify rapid mean-reversion opportunities. We show that anti-persistent values of H lead to faster reversion and consistent returns---minimizing trading costs and enabling broader portfolio construction. In conclusion, this thesis provides an interdisciplinary analytical framework that advances our understanding of DeFi markets. By introducing network-based indicators, trust metrics, uncertainty-aware forecasts, and diversification strategies grounded in market structure, we provide new tools for investors and researchers to navigate the complexity and volatility inherent in decentralized financial systems. RESUMEN El auge de las Finanzas Descentralizadas (DeFi), impulsado por la tecnología blockchain, ha dado lugar a ecosistemas financieros más accesibles y transparentes que contrastan con los sistemas financieros tradicionales. DeFi amplía el panorama financiero actual e introduce nuevos retos, como la necesidad de un nuevo modelo de valoración de los activos. No obstante, el hecho de que todas las transacciones son públicas, ofrece una oportunidad única para modelar y comprender la dinámica del mercado mediante nuevas herramientas analíticas. Esta tesis tiene como objetivo principal proponer nuevos métodos para comprender la dinámica del mercado desde la perspectiva de los sistemas complejos y el aprendizaje automático. Para ello, nos centramos en cuatro objetivos específicos: (i) evaluar si la información estructural de las redes de transacciones aporta señales predictivas más allá de los indicadores tradicionales; (ii) desarrollar métricas de valoración de los protocolos DeFi basadas en la confianza de los inversores; (iii) construir un marco metodológico para predecir series temporales financieras mediante arquitecturas de aprendizaje automático que incorporen incertidumbre; (iv) construir portfolios diversificados utilizando representaciones de la red de relaciones entre criptomonedas. En primer lugar, utilizando Ethereum como caso de estudio, analizamos la influencia de la red de transacciones sobre la tendencia del mercado comparando dos modelos de aprendizaje automático: uno que emplea indicadores de análisis técnico y de redes sociales comunes en la literatura, y otro incluyendo propiedades estructurales de la red de transacciones. Los resultados muestran que incluyendo información de la red podemos anticipar un 46% más de tendencias alcistas y un 19% más de tendencias bajistas, lo que subraya el poder predictivo de la red de transacciones. En segundo lugar, introducimos las bandas TVL/MCAP para identificar períodos de sobreconfianza y desconfianza en el mercado DeFi. Demostramos que valores extremos de este indicador anticipan movimientos en el precio: valores por encima del percentil 95 se asocian con un rendimiento 15% superior en el mes siguiente, mientras que valores por debajo del percentil 5 anticipan caídas. En tercer lugar, abordamos la necesidad de predicciones que no solo anticipen tendencias del mercado, sino que también cuantifiquen la incertidumbre. Para ello, integramos Reservoir Computing (RC) con métodos de predicción conforme para generar predicciones estadísticamente rigurosas junto con intervalos de confianza. Mostramos que RC supera a los modelos econométricos tradicionales, especialmente anticipando la tendencia del precio. Además, los métodos conformes ---en particular las variantes de cuantiles--- mejoran significativamente la fiabilidad de las predicciones al adaptarse a la volatilidad del mercado. Por último, abordamos el problema de optimización de portfolios mediante métodos basados en redes. Específicamente, modelamos la red de relaciones entre criptomonedas para seleccionar un portfolio más diversificado. Observamos que evitar pares que conectan distintas comunidades en la red y priorizar activos periféricos aumenta el rendimiento y disminuye el riesgo, demostrando así la importancia de una diversificación estructural. Además, proponemos el uso del exponente de Hurst para identificar oportunidades que revierten antes a la media en estrategias de pairs trading. En conclusión, esta tesis propone un marco analítico interdisciplinar que contribuye al entendimiento de los mercados DeFi. Al introducir indicadores basados en redes, métricas de confianza, predicciones con estimación de incertidumbre y estrategias de diversificación basadas en la estructura del mercado, ofrecemos nuevas herramientas para que inversores e investigadores naveguen la complejidad y volatilidad propias de los sistemas financieros descentralizados.
This study explores Bitcoin's value formation through the Granular Interaction Thinking Theory-Value Theory (GITT-VT). Rather than stemming from material utility or cash flows, Bitcoin's value arises from informational attributes and interactions of multiple factors, including cryptographic order, decentralization-enabled autonomy, trust embedded in the consensus mechanism, and socio-narrative coherence that reduce entropy within decentralized value-exchange processes. To empirically assess this perspective, a Bayesian linear model was estimated using daily data from 2022 to 2025, operationalizing four informational value dimensions: Store-of-Value (SOV), Autonomy (AUT), Social-Signal Value (SSV), and Hedonic-Sentiment Value (HSV). Results indicate that only SSV exerts a highly credible positive effect on next-day returns, highlighting the dominant role of high-entropy social information in short-term pricing dynamics. In contrast, SOV and AUT show moderately reliable positive associations, reflecting their roles as low-entropy structural anchors of long-term value. HSV displays no credible predictive effect. The study advances interdisciplinary value theory and demonstrates Bitcoin as a dual-layer entropy-regulating socio-technological ecosystem. The findings offer implications for digital asset valuation, investment education, and future research on entropy dynamics across non-cash-flow digital assets.
This dissertation examines the evolving market microstructure of digital assets, focusing on transaction costs, liquidity provision returns, and the development of innovative exchange mechanisms. In three essays, the research provides empirical evidence on digital asset trading in both traditional and emerging decentralized market architectures. Each essay addresses previously unresolved questions, offering valuable insights for researchers, practitioners, and regulators to better understand and manage the benefits, costs, and risks of trading in digital asset markets.The first essay examines the cost of trading across digital assets in traditional centralized limit-order-book exchanges and a nascent, decentralized market architecture: the Automated Market Maker. By employing a novel methodology the study extends prior research that relies on less detailed, low-frequency information. The findings reveal transaction cost advantages for Automated Market Makers with remarkable stability across varying levels of market volatility, trading volume, and market capitalization. These results offer practical insights into execution venue selection and market design considerations.The second essay explores the evolution of Automated Market Makers, using the introduction of a new generation of these exchange architectures as a case study. In addition to documenting their technical advancements, the research shows that asset pairs migrate to the new Automated-Market-Maker models based on asset-specific fundamentals. The study makes key contributions through two experimental setups, demonstrating that reductions in inventory costs and the introduction of flexible fee tiers deliver welfare benefits for both liquidity demanders and providers. These findings enrich the broader discussion on market design and highlight the potential for innovative mechanisms to enhance efficiency in both decentralized and traditional financial systems.The third essay sheds light on liquidity provision in Automated Market Makers. Leveraging granular profitability data, the study finds that a small subset of liquidity providers dominate liquidity provision. These sophisticated agents achieve significantly higher absolute and relative profits compared to retail participants, while demonstrating a high level of skill. The emergence of these de-facto intermediaries challenges the decentralized finance ethos of disintermediation, highlighting that liquidity provision, even in decentralized markets, remains dominated by specialists. Understanding the composition of participants in these nascent markets is not only crucial for practitioners but also regulators, enabling them to develop targeted and effective policies that promote fair and competitive market environments.
Jeremy Eng‐Tuck Cheah, Thong Dao, Hung Do, Tapas Mishra
ABSTRACT This paper investigates the stability and co‐movement of cryptocurrency assets in Decentralized Finance (DeFi), with a focus on the Speed of Adjustment (SA), the rate at which shocks dissipate, and prices revert to long‐run equilibrium. SA provides a critical measure of market efficiency and portfolio allocation in a highly volatile DeFi environment. We extend conventional cointegration analysis by applying a Fractionally Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive framework, which captures slow error corrections. Rolling estimations generate a time‐varying series of SA, allowing examination of its evolution and cross‐asset spillovers. The results reveal multiple cointegrating relationships, heterogeneous adjustment speeds, and strong contagion effects among DeFi assets. For instance, RPL exhibits rapid yet volatile adjustment, while LDO, BAL, and SNX revert more slowly, reflecting distinct risk‐return trade‐offs. Spillover analysis highlights high systemic interconnectedness, underscoring challenges for diversification and contagion management. Overall, dynamic SA emerges as a valuable forward‐looking indicator of stability in digital asset markets.
This study proposes a hybrid model that integrates Wavelet frequency decomposition, convolutional neural networks (CNNs), and Transformers to predict correlation structures among eight major cryptocurrencies. The Wavelet module decomposes asset time series into short-, medium-, and long-term components, enabling multi-scale trend analysis. CNNs capture localized correlation patterns across frequency bands, while the Transformer models long-term temporal dependencies and global relationships. Ablation studies with three baselines (Wavelet–CNN, Wavelet–Transformer, and CNN–Transformer) confirm that the proposed Wavelet–CNN–Transformer (WCT) consistently outperforms all alternatives across regression metrics (MSE, MAE, RMSE) and matrix similarity measures (Cosine Similarity and Frobenius Norm). The performance gap with the Wavelet–Transformer highlights CNN’s critical role in processing frequency-decomposed features, and WCT demonstrates stable accuracy even during periods of high market volatility. By improving correlation forecasts, the model enhances portfolio diversification and enables more effective risk-hedging strategies than volatility-based approaches. Moreover, it is capable of capturing the impact of major events such as policy announcements, geopolitical conflicts, and corporate earnings releases on market networks. This capability provides a powerful framework for monitoring structural transformations that are often overlooked by traditional price prediction models.
Alexandr Kuznetsov, Олексій Костенко, K.O. Klymenko, Zoriana Hbur · 5 authors
Blockchain-based cryptocurrency markets present unique analytical challenges due to their decentralized nature, continuous operation, and extreme volatility. Traditional price prediction models often struggle with the binary trade execution problem in these markets. This study introduces a confidence-based classification framework that separates directional prediction from execution decisions in cryptocurrency trading. We develop a neural network system that processes multi-scale market data, combining daily macroeconomic indicators with a high-frequency order book microstructure. The model trains exclusively on directional movements (up versus down) and uses prediction confidence levels to determine trade execution. We evaluate the framework across 11 major cryptocurrency pairs over 12 months. Experimental results demonstrate 82.68% direction accuracy on executed trades with 151.11-basis point average net profit per trade at 11.99% market coverage. Order book features dominate predictive importance (81.3% of selected features), validating the critical role of blockchain microstructure data for short-term price prediction. The confidence-based execution strategy achieves superior risk-adjusted returns compared to traditional classification approaches while providing natural risk management capabilities through selective trade execution. These findings contribute to blockchain technology applications in financial markets by demonstrating how a decentralized market microstructure can be leveraged for systematic trading strategies. The methodology offers practical implementation guidelines for cryptocurrency algorithmic trading while advancing the understanding of machine learning applications in blockchain-based financial systems.
This study aims to understand the relationship among cryptocurrency, stock, and gold markets. Cointegration, structured VAR, and causality tests were used with daily datasets from 11/09/2017 to 11/17/2023. A cryptocurrency basket is accepted as the cryptocurrency market for this study. The stock markets have a one-way relationship both with the gold and cryptocurrency markets in the short-run. All markets have effects on other markets’ price variances, as well. The price shocks of the markets to each other are not so essential for the prices. However, their own price shocks impact their prices for a few days. The stock market has asymmetric relationships with the gold and cryptocurrency markets. A 1.00 % rise in stock price causes declines in the gold and cryptocurrency prices by 2.35% and 2.42%, respectively. If the gold market or stock market is ignored, a 1.00% rise in gold prices causes a 0.69% rise in cryptocurrency prices, or a 1.00% rise in stock prices raises the cryptocurrency prices by 4.03%.
Cryptocurrency investment is a rapidly growing financial sector, marked by high volatility, decentralized technologies, and significant profit potential. Investors use strategies like long-term holding (“HODLing”), portfolio diversification, and short-term trading. “HODLing” relies on long-term value appreciation but requires resilience to price fluctuations. Diversifying with assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum reduces risk due to their low correlation with traditional investments. The crypto market is highly sensitive to geopolitical, economic, and technological factors, attracting investors during economic instability. Advanced models like LASSO and AutoEncoder aid in price prediction and strategy optimization. Despite high return potential, careful risk management is essential due to volatility and regulatory uncertainty. This study experimentally applies identical cryptocurrency portfolios to different investment strategies, identifying the most profitable approach.
Stanisław Drożdż, Robert Kluszczyński, Jarosław Kwapień, Marcin Wątorek
Multifractality in time series analysis characterizes the presence of multiple scaling exponents, indicating heterogeneous temporal structures and complex dynamical behaviors beyond simple monofractal models. In the context of digital currency markets, multifractal properties arise due to the interplay of long-range temporal correlations and heavy-tailed distributions of returns, reflecting intricate market microstructure and trader interactions. Incorporating multifractal analysis into the modeling of cryptocurrency price dynamics enhances the understanding of market inefficiencies, may improve volatility forecasting and facilitate the detection of critical transitions or regime shifts. Based on the multifractal cross-correlation analysis (MFCCA) whose spacial case is the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA), as the most commonly used practical tools for quantifying multifractality, in the present contribution a recently proposed method of disentangling sources of multifractality in time series was applied to the most representative instruments from the digital market. They include Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), decentralized exchanges (DEX) and non-fungible tokens (NFT). The results indicate the significant role of heavy tails in generating a broad multifractal spectrum. However, they also clearly demonstrate that the primary source of multifractality are temporal correlations in the series, and without them, multifractality fades out. It appears characteristic that these temporal correlations, to a large extent, do not depend on the thickness of the tails of the fluctuation distribution. These observations, made here in the context of the digital currency market, provide a further strong argument for the validity of the proposed methodology of disentangling sources of multifractality in time series.
This study investigates the dynamic relationship between order flow toxicity, measured by the volume-synchronized probability of informed trading (VPIN), and price jumps in the Bitcoin market using high-frequency data and vector autoregressive model (VAR) modelling. By integrating behavioral finance theory to market microstructure framework, we explore how informed trading activity influences jumps in price, and how traders respond to such volatility. Our findings reveal that VPIN significantly predicts future price jumps, with positive serial correlation observed in both VPIN and jump size, suggesting persistent asymmetric information and momentum effects. On the contrary, price jumps occasionally affect VPIN. This study also identifies time-zone and day-of-the-week effects in VPIN, highlighting the role of global trading patterns. The results are robust among the choices of jump tests including Jiang and Oomen (2008) test which is empirically robust against market microstructure noise. These results contribute to a deeper understanding of intraday volatility in cryptocurrency markets and offer practical implications for risk management, trading strategy design, and regulatory oversight.
Abdul Malik, Gayatri Putri, Hesti Putri, Ahmad Badruddin
The proliferation of crypto-assets has raised critical questions about their impact on global financial stability. This study rigorously investigates the structural evolution of the cryptocurrency market's role within the global financial system, testing the hypothesis that it has transitioned from a peripheral, shock-absorbing entity into a systemically significant transmitter of financial risk. We employ a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model on daily data from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2024, examining the dynamic connectedness between a bespoke, rebalanced cryptocurrency index (CRIX20) and key global financial indicators (S&P 500, MSCI World, VIX, DXY). The econometric framework utilizes a Bayesian estimation approach with standard priors, a 200-day rolling window, and a 10-day forecast horizon for Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decompositions (GFEVD). Methodological robustness is confirmed through structural break tests and sensitivity analysis of the forecast horizon. Our findings reveal a profound structural transformation. Prior to mid-2020, the cryptocurrency market was a consistent net receiver of financial spillovers. A structural break, formally identified in the third quarter of 2020, marks a definitive regime shift. Post-break, the crypto market has become a significant and persistent net transmitter of risk to the traditional financial system. The total connectedness index for the entire system shows a marked secular increase, with the crypto market's contribution to systemic risk growing substantially. Gross spillover analysis confirms this shift is driven by a dramatic increase in risk transmission from the crypto market to other assets. In conclusion, the cryptocurrency market can no longer be considered an isolated ecosystem; it is now an integral and potentially destabilizing component of the global financial architecture. The era of crypto-assets as reliable diversifiers has waned, replaced by a new reality where shocks originating within this market pose a credible threat to broader financial stability. These findings present urgent challenges for regulatory oversight, systemic risk monitoring, and portfolio management.
Ifran Khan, Huangbao Gui, Chin Man Chui, Mrs Faryal · 6 authors
This study investigates the dynamic volatility transmission between leading cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Binance Coin) and major Chinese firms in the technology (Tencent and Alibaba), green energy (CATL, BYD, and LONGi), and traditional energy (PetroChina) sectors, including the CSI 300 index. Employing the frameworks of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and Baruník and Křehlík (2018) on daily data from July 2018 to May 2025, we demonstrate significant cross-market risk transmission. The total connectedness index averages 34.77%, soaring to over 50% during the COVID-19 crisis, underscoring heightened systemic vulnerability. Our key finding identifies the CSI 300 index and cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH) as the primary net transmitters of volatility shocks, whereas Chinese tech and energy firms (Tencent, CATL, and PetroChina) act as the main net receivers. A critical insight from the frequency decomposition is the absolute dominance of short-term spillovers (1–4 days), which constitute 34.85% of total connectedness, vastly outweighing the minimal effects in the medium- (4–10 days: 0.78%) and long-term (beyond 10 days: 0.52%). Investor sentiment, speculation, and news shocks drive short-term volatility spillovers from cryptocurrencies to stocks, particularly evident in their strong correlation with Chinese tech and energy equities. We attribute these spillovers to shared investor bases, sectoral links like crypto mining's energy demand, and regulatory interdependencies. Our evidence confirms that cryptocurrency markets are now integral to global financial stress, transmitting significant volatility to real-economy sectors. This study offers critical insights for investors and policymakers managing risk in an increasingly interconnected financial landscape.
Rabbiya Younas, Hafiz Muhammad Raza Ur Rehman, Gyu Sang Choi
Cryptocurrencies function as a digital exchange medium operating on network-based technology, where records are secured using cryptographic algorithms such as Secure Hash Algorithm 2 (SHA-2) and Message Digest 5 (MD5). These cryptocurrencies utilize blockchain technology to provide transparent, reliable, and immutable transactions. Consequently, cryptocurrencies have gained significant traction across multiple sectors, particularly finance. However, their value is still prone to considerable fluctuations, which raises concerns about the risks associated with investments. The emerging discipline of cryptocurrency forecasting has gained popularity worldwide, and academics are employing a variety of deep learning (DL) and machine learning (ML) techniques to investigate the elements that influence cryptocurrency values. Among the various DL methods, LSTM has demonstrated noteworthy efficiency. Nevertheless, there are intrinsic downsides to LSTM, notably due to its sequential nature, which hinders parallelization and complicates the modeling of both short- and long-term dependencies. To address these shortcomings, the Transformer architecture has emerged as a potent solution. The Transformer is widely used in DL for its exceptional parallelization capabilities and its capacity to extract broad, distant data dependencies. Recent studies have explored Transformer-based approaches for cryptocurrency price forecasting, particularly for modeling long-term dependencies. However, these models often exhibit limitations in capturing high-frequency, short-term fluctuations, making them less suitable for short-term prediction tasks. Our proposed methodology introduces a novel Transformer-based hybrid framework designed to enhance forecasting accuracy across various time scales. We evaluate the forecasting accuracy for 10 cryptocurrencies at hourly, daily, and yearly frequencies. The findings show that, in comparison to other DL techniques such as LSTM, RNN, and baseline Autoformer, our model achieves superior accuracy. Furthermore, we benchmark our method against prominent Transformer variants such as Informer and FEDformer, and observe improved performance in both short- and long-term forecasting scenarios. These results indicate that our proposed model consistently outperforms existing state-of-the-art Transformer-based approaches in cryptocurrency price prediction.
Ethereum’s introduction of smart contracts has significantly expanded blockchain use cases, enabling decentralized applications. Since all transactions are publicly available, the system can be modeled as a complex network, allowing us to uncover emergent user behavior and explore the underlying dynamics of the ecosystem. In this study, we focus on analyzing the structural differences within the Ethereum system across three distinct market regimes: bull, bear, and sideways. To achieve this, we apply a Hidden Markov Model to the log-return time series to uncover the underlying states, revealing three differentiated states, each corresponding to a specific market regime. Next, we investigate the network structural differences across these regimes, finding meaningful variations. During the bear regime, the out-degree distribution is more heterogeneous, with the largest hub exhibiting more extreme out-degree values. Additionally, during the bull and sideways regimes, we observe higher levels of reciprocity, clustering, and modularity compared to the bear regime. These findings suggest that during bull and sideways markets, the interaction patterns are more complex, and the community structure is more cohesive. Overall, our work underscores how market conditions shape trading patterns and the structural properties of the Ethereum transaction network, providing new insights into the interplay between market regimes, network topology, and user behavior in decentralized ecosystems.
Suleiman Dahir Mohamed, Mohd Tahir Ismail, Majid Khan Majahar Ali
Bitcoin market has exhibited substantial volatility over time.Bitcoin returns exhibit high standard deviation.This study employs the GARCH (1,1) model with normal (norm), Studentt (std), and generalized error distributions (ged) to estimate Bitcoin conditional volatility.Bitcoin exhibits fat-tailed returns, volatility clustering, and a remarkably high persistence value.The GARCH (1,1)-ged model showed superior performance compared to other models when evaluated using LL, AIC, and BIC criteria.The indicator saturation (IS) method was employed to concurrently detect historical daily breaks, trend breaks, and outliers in Bitcoin volatility data.The indicator saturation approach revealed that, for the past decade, historical Bitcoin volatility has had 6 outliers, 31 breaks, and 74 trend breaks under the normal distribution, 0 outliers, 26 breaks, and 83 trend breaks under the student-t distribution, and 1 outlier, 29 breaks, and 77 trend breaks under the ged distribution.This shows that assuming a heavy tail led to fewer outliers and breaks, and as the frequency of trend breaks increases, it also shows more volatility clusters represented by GARCH.These discoveries have the potential to comprehend the influence of events on financial markets and guarantee stability in the evaluation of financial risk, management of portfolios, and modeling endeavors.
ABSTRACT This paper develops a model of a cryptocurrency by incorporating mining into the otherwise standard search‐theoretic monetary framework. As usual, multiple equilibria exist. To obtain a sharp prediction on whether a cryptocurrency' s value will last in the future, I propose a notion of equilibrium refinement based on the feature that mining uses real resources. This refinement eliminates all equilibria where the value of the cryptocurrency is zero at some point in time or converges to zero over time. This result suggests that agents can collectively sustain the value of the cryptocurrency using costly mining as a coordinating device.
This study examines links between global financial stress and cryptocurrency returns from 1 January 2017 to 31 January 2025, while explicitly accounting for commodity markets. We use an econometric toolkit: unit-root and cointegration testing, ARDL bounds, Toda–Yamamoto causality, and a two-state Markov Switching model to trace long-run equilibrium and transmission mechanisms across cryptocurrencies (BGCI), systemic stress (OFR-FSI), volatility measures (VIX, VVIX, VSTOXX, VVSTOXX, MOVE), major equities and bonds, and three commodities (gold, oil, copper). Results show robust long-run cointegration between BGCI and several financial variables, including S&P/ASX 200 and the Bloomberg Barclays Bond Index; models that include commodities continue to support these long-term links. Toda–Yamamoto tests reveal that stress and volatility indices unidirectionally transmit shocks to cryptocurrencies and commodities, while gold displays a bidirectional relationship with BGCI, indicating a conditional safe haven interaction. Markov Switching estimates show amplified co-movement among BGCI, gold and bonds in stress regimes, with the model predominantly remaining in a normal state. Overall, cryptocurrencies are embedded within the broader financial system; commodities, especially gold, are used to moderate the stress crypto transmission and offer conditional diversification value during turmoil.
Yuankui Wang, Mohd Fahmi Ghazali, Ruzanna Ab Razak, Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi
This study applies Phase Space Reconstruction and Phase Space LSTM to analyze Bitcoin’s interactions with Gold, S&P 500, U.S. Bonds, EUR/USD, and Crude Oil, revealing hidden dependencies and chaotic structures in financial markets. Study implement a multi-method validation framework combining the Rosenstein algorithm for Lyapunov exponent estimation, 0 − 1 test for chaos and BDS test to provide robust evidence for deterministic chaos. Results indicate that most assets exhibit deterministic chaos, with price evolution highly sensitive to liquidity conditions and macroeconomic forces. Phase space analysis conducted in optimal four-dimensional embeddings uncovers stronger predictive linkages between Bitcoin and U.S. Bonds, reinforcing its growing dependence on global financial conditions. The application of PS-LSTM significantly enhances forecasting accuracy, demonstrated through rigorous validation including statistical significance testing and economic significance evaluation using risk-adjusted performance metrics. These findings suggest that cryptocurrencies are not isolated assets but deeply entangled with systemic financial fluctuations, necessitating a reassessment of market stability and risk propagation through the lens of statistical mechanics and econophysics. • PSR reveals hidden dependencies across Bitcoin, gold, stocks, bonds, exchange rate and commodities. • Phase space analysis reveals that Bitcoin-bond linkages indicate macroeconomic integration. • Phase Space LSTM (PS-LSTM) enhances forecasting accuracy, reducing overfitting and improving predictive stability across all assets. • PS-LSTM reduces overfitting and improves forecasting across all asset classes. • Chaos detection confirms the presence of nonlinear dynamics in cryptocurrency and commodity markets. • Higher-dimensional embeddings enhance the detection of causality between financial assets.
Marcin Wątorek, Marija Bezbradica, Martin Crane, Jarosław Kwapień · 5 authors
Based on the cryptocurrency market dynamics, this study presents a general methodology for analyzing evolving correlation structures in complex systems using the $q$-dependent detrended cross-correlation coefficient ρ(q,s). By extending traditional metrics, this approach captures correlations at varying fluctuation amplitudes and time scales. The method employs $q$-dependent minimum spanning trees ($q$MSTs) to visualize evolving network structures. Using minute-by-minute exchange rate data for 140 cryptocurrencies on Binance (Jan 2021-Oct 2024), a rolling window analysis reveals significant shifts in $q$MSTs, notably around April 2022 during the Terra/Luna crash. Initially centralized around Bitcoin (BTC), the network later decentralized, with Ethereum (ETH) and others gaining prominence. Spectral analysis confirms BTC's declining dominance and increased diversification among assets. A key finding is that medium-scale fluctuations exhibit stronger correlations than large-scale ones, with $q$MSTs based on the latter being more decentralized. Properly exploiting such facts may offer the possibility of a more flexible optimal portfolio construction. Distance metrics highlight that major disruptions amplify correlation differences, leading to fully decentralized structures during crashes. These results demonstrate $q$MSTs' effectiveness in uncovering fluctuation-dependent correlations, with potential applications beyond finance, including biology, social and other complex systems.
Arthur Rodrigues Pereira de Carvalho, Felipe Quintino, Helton Saulo, Luan Carlos de Sena Monteiro Ozelim · 6 authors
This study introduces and evaluates stochastic models to describe Bitcoin price dynamics at different time scales, using daily data from January 2019 to December 2024 and intraday data from 20 January 2025. In the daily analysis, models based on are introduced to capture long memory, paired with both constant-volatility (CONST) and stochastic-volatility specifications via the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) process. The novel family of models is based on Generalized Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes with a fluctuating exponential trend (GOU-FE), which are modified to account for multiplicative fBm noise. Traditional Geometric Brownian Motion processes (GFBM) with either constant or stochastic volatilities are employed as benchmarks for comparative analysis, bringing the total number of evaluated models to four: GFBM-CONST, GFBM-CIR, GOUFE-CONST, and GOUFE-CIR models. Estimation by numerical optimization and evaluation through error metrics, information criteria (AIC, BIC, and EDC), and 95% Expected Shortfall (ES95) indicated better fit for the stochastic-volatility models (GOUFE-CIR and GFBM-CIR) and the lowest tail-risk for GOUFE-CIR, although residual analysis revealed heteroscedasticity and non-normality. For intraday data, Exponential, Weibull, and Generalized Gamma Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) models, with adjustments for intraday patterns, were applied to model the time between transactions. Results showed that the ACD models effectively capture duration clustering, with the Generalized Gamma version exhibiting superior fit according to the Cox–Snell residual-based analysis and other metrics (AIC, BIC, and mean-squared error). Overall, this work advances the modeling of Bitcoin prices by rigorously applying and comparing stochastic frameworks across temporal scales, highlighting the critical roles of long memory, stochastic volatility, and intraday dynamics in understanding the behavior of this digital asset.
We quantify the economic consequences of Ethereum’s transition from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake. We document a structural break in inflation dynamics, shifting to an ARIMA(2,1,1) process with deflationary tendencies. The relationship between inflation and staking returns weakens post-Merge, challenging assumptions about incentive structures in Proof-of-Stake systems. Analysis reveals significant changes in market microstructure, including reduced spot trading volume and altered futures market behavior. We identify complex feedback loops between on-chain metrics and market variables, defying traditional equilibrium models. Our results suggest the need for new economic models to understand Proof-of-Stake systems and their market implications.