Abstract The aim of the paper is to present the phenomenon of the new virtual currency bitcoin, and analyse its economic significance. The paper examines the origin, notion, functions and mechanism of emission of the BTC. The theoretical aspects of creation of the BTC and its advantages and weakness are also explained. The results of the analysis show that bitcoin does not eliminate current problems of traditional currency but also generates new risks for its users. The risks could as well affect the central banks (the legal risk, the risk to payment system stability, and the reputation risk). Three contributions of this paper to the problem of the BTC are worth distinguishing. Firstly, the scientific literature lacks information and data about the BTC - the main source of information is the Internet which reliability cannot be fully guaranteed. Secondly, periodical examination of development of the risk connected with the BTC is necessary. Thirdly, it is a basis to begin discussion on the new virtual currency which bitcoin is.
Bitcoin is a decentralized, open-source cryptocurrency used to make private, peer-to-peer transactions anywhere across the world. Although the individuals involved are (mostly) anonymous, every Bitcoin transaction is a matter of public record; anyone can view every Bitcoin transaction ever made. Following the methodology developed by Evans and Lyons (2002), this paper adapts and estimates a FX microstructure model that emphases order flow, the difference between buyer- and seller-initiated trading volume, to the Bitcoin market Using a data set consisting of all major currency transactions occurring on the Mt. Gox exchange, our results are quite similar to prior microfinance research on traditional currencies insofar order flow is a significant determinant of Bitcoin spot rates.
Autor w pionierskiej dla nauki prawa polskiego publikacji poświęconej bitcoinowi (oraz innym tzw. walutom wirtualnym) sformułował wiązkę podstawowych tez na temat tego przedmiotu stosunków prywatnoprawnych. Podstawowe znaczenie ma postawienie i wnikliwe uargumentowanie tezy, która głosi, że bitcoin (oraz inne tzw. waluty wirtualne) jest innym niż pieniądz miernikiem wartości. Jest więc legalny jako taki, w zakresie wszystkich wyobrażalnych sfer jego faktycznego i potencjalnego zastosowania. Zobowiązania przewidujące świadczenie wyrażone w bitcoinie są - ponad wszelką wątpliwość - zaskarżalne, możliwe do zasądzenia przez sąd i wyegzekwowania. Wykorzystanie bitcoina na płaszczyźnie stosunków prywatnoprawnych opiera się na znanych konstrukcjach prawa cywilnego, przewidzianych przez kodeks cywilny. Ponieważ bitcoin nie jest rzeczą, przechodzi ze zbywcy na nabywcę po spełnieniu przesłanek przewidzianych dla rozporządzenia wierzytelnością. Może być przedmiotem sprzedaży i zamiany, a także innych zobowiązań przewidujących świadczenie typu dare, a więc np. przedmiotem pożyczki, zastrzeżenia zadatku, czy też kary umownej. Konstrukcja prawna bitcoina wpisuje się w wyartykułowaną i wnikliwie uzasadnianą na łamach innych publikacji Autora koncepcję środków symbolizujących prawo podmiotowe. Na tej zasadzie bitcoin jest po prostu prawem podmiotowym związanym z nośnikiem, co tłumaczy jednocześnie charakter prawny oraz dopuszczalne płaszczyzny praktycznego zastosowania. Dlatego bitcoin zasadniczo należy zakwalifikować do tej samej kategorii, co znaki legitymacyjne stwierdzające obowiązek świadczenia, dokumentowe papiery wartościowe oraz zdematerializowane instrumenty finansowe. Niniejsza publikacja stanowi pierwszą z dwóch poświęconych przez Autora bitcoinowi. W drugiej Autor podejmuje więcej kwestii szczegółowych (zob. Monitor Prawniczy 2015, nr 4).
Bitcoin is a distributed, virtual currency without centralized control. While a few services accept bitcoins directly, it is also possible to exchange bitcoins into fiat currency and vice versa. Bitcoins are effectively computation puzzles that are mined based on a bruteforce algorithm. As computation requires electricity, it can be stated that the miners are exchanging energy for bitcoins. However, electricity is not usually free and the energy efficiency of the mining devices can vary. Thus, some low-efficiency devices could be considered mainly as an environmental hazard because the expense of using the electricity exceeds the profits. The miners are competing with each other to find solutions, which has resulted in an arms race to use specialized hardware for mining. While this improves energy efficiency, the computational limit for profitable Bitcoin mining is still a moving target. In this thesis, we study and analyse past developments in this limit and try to estimate its future directions.
A soft control of the network activity through varying reward in a proof-of-work (PoW) cryptocurrency is reported. Rewards are the necessity to incent the contributors activities (i.e., mining) in order to maintain the PoW network. Contrary to constant rewarding in a certain period implemented in most of cryptocurrency, such as bitcoin, we propose a network-dependent rewarding model system, primarily including two phases: 1) activities encouraging phase in which higher rewards are issued at higher network activities; and 2) discouraging further increase of activities by reducing rewards. The advantages of this system include 1) fair distribution of rewards among a variety of contributors, and 2) enforcing a limit to the network activity and hence the cost of maintaining the PoW network. This mechanism requires network contributors to show their participation in order to earn maximum rewards, i.e., proof-of-mining.
In the history of money bitcoin represents an outstanding medium of exchange, independent from central authorities. Therefore, it has experienced impressive demand which, combined with inelastic supply, has led to huge price appreciation. Nonetheless, transaction volume has not been increasing accordingly. At the core of this conundrum is the very poor performance of bitcoin as unit of account: dramatic deflationary price instability makes bitcoin just impractical for commerce, but completely unserviceable for salaries, mortgages, and deferred payments in general. Ametrano (2014a) has championed as Hayek Money the proposal to engineer cryptocurrencies with fully automatic algorithmic non-discretionary elastic supply: the monetary rule of pegging to a price index would dynamically rebase the outstanding amount of money and achieve price stability. It is proposed here to implement Hayek Money as multiple coexisting units of account wrapped around the unmodified bitcoin (or any other cryptocurrency). Prices would be stable in terms of these rebased-bitcoin units of account: different coexisting cryptocurrencies all backed by the same bitcoins, each one with its own floating bitcoin-equivalent rebasing index. These cryptocurrencies would define a new monetary standard, with striking resemblance to the gold standard as improved by the compensated dollar proposed by Fisher (1913). In this Fisher Money scenario bitcoin would be digital crypto-gold and exchange rates would be floating, not fixed, being just the relative prices of the respective cryptocurrency price indexes.
Bitcoin has two major roles: as currency and as financial asset. This paper attempts to address these roles: whether Bitcoin is a real currency, and what its financial features are. Using daily data of the exchange rates quoted from the world major Bitcoin dealer since the inception of Bitcoin and the spot market exchange rates, we calculate the triangle arbitrage asset price to decompose the features of this currency. The results suggest significant liquidity discount of Bitcoin and risk premium as a financial asset in terms of British Pound Sterling (2.46%) and Chinese Yuan (0.3%). There is idiosyncratic risk component associated with Bitcoin implied by the Granger causality tests. Bitcoin, as investment objectives instead of currency unit, is associated with excess risk and low returns. Such poor performance discourages investors to spend Bitcoin as currency and to pursue the arbitrage profit. Investors store and hold Bitcoin as fixed asset. In addition, both arbitrage stickiness and low Treynor ratio are persistent over time.
Kay Noyen, Dirk Volland, Dominic Wörner, Elgar Fleisch
Sensing-as-a-Service (S2aaS) is an emerging Internet of Things (IOT) business\nmodel pattern. To be technically feasible and to effectively allow for broad\nadoption, S2aaS implementations have to overcome manifold systemic hurdles,\nspecifically regarding payment and sensor identification. In an effort to\novercome these hurdles, we propose Bitcoin as protocol for S2aaS networks. To\nlay the groundwork and start the conversation about disruptive changes that\nBitcoin technology could bring to S2aaS concepts and IOT in general, we\nidentify and discuss the core characteristics that could drive those changes.\nWe present a conceptual example and describe the basic process of exchanging\ndata for cash using Bitcoin.\n
V okviru diplomskega dela je bila izdelana informacijska resitev, ki omogoca izvajanje razlicnih trgovalnih strategij nad kriptovaluto Bitcoin. Podprte borze so Bitstamp, Btc-e ter MtGox. Na podrocju tehnicne analize za Bitcoin že obstajajo razne resitve, ki trgovalcem pomagajo pri trgovanju in jim svetujejo s pomocjo tehnicnih indikatorjev in vzorcev. Vendar ima vsaka resitev svoje slabosti, ki se jih je želelo odpraviti. Razvita je bila spletna aplikacija v tehnologiji Node.js, ki poleg izvajanja strategij na zgodovinskih podatkih za vsako podprto borzo ponuja se prikaz grafa vrednosti kriptovalute skozi cas z japonskimi svecniki ter grafa globine trga skupaj s knjigo narocil. Uporabnik ima možnost implementirati tudi lastno strategijo. Trgovalni podatki, ki so potrebni za delovanje spletne aplikacije in morajo biti osveženi, se s podprtih borz pridobivajo preko vmesnikov API s pomocjo javanskih programov in shranjujejo v podatkovno bazo MongoDB.
This paper is a primer on many topics related to the digital cryptocurrency, Bitcoin. Bitcoins have been developed and advertised as a private digital money. We analyze this claim, generally to conclude that Bitcoins as they presently exist are not money. They are not generally accepted in exchange and do not serve as a unit of account. We test the hypothesis that the value of Bitcoins are determined largely by network externalities, finding very limited data to support this claim. We analyze features of bitcoins, such as their high exchange rate volatility with respect to the U.S. dollar and other currencies. We examine pricing on various exchanges, and how the law of one price works in bilateral and trilateral exchange rates involving Bitcoins. The potential for arbitrage is examined. We look at the use of bitcoins at Overstock.com, and the impact of that decision on Overstock.com stock prices and on the value of Bitcoins. We consider Bitcoins as an asset and examine their contribution to portfolio holdings. We discuss Bitcoin’s use in fraud resembling a Ponzi scheme. Finally, we speculate on the future of Bitcoins and the potential uses for the underlying technology.
In this paper, we discuss the method of Bayesian regression and its efficacy for predicting price variation of Bitcoin, a recently popularized virtual, cryptographic currency. Bayesian regression refers to utilizing empirical data as proxy to perform Bayesian inference. We utilize Bayesian regression for the so-called "latent source model". The Bayesian regression for "latent source model" was introduced and discussed by Chen, Nikolov and Shah (2013) and Bresler, Chen and Shah (2014) for the purpose of binary classification. They established theoretical as well as empirical efficacy of the method for the setting of binary classification. In this paper, instead we utilize it for predicting real-valued quantity, the price of Bitcoin. Based on this price prediction method, we devise a simple strategy for trading Bitcoin. The strategy is able to nearly double the investment in less than 60 day period when run against real data trace.
This Article investigates an increasingly important yet under-developed body of law: regulation of virtual currency. At its peak in March of 2014, the daily volume of Bitcoin transactions in United States dollars exceeded $575,000,000. The growing mainstream acceptance of Bitcoin, however, is best illustrated by the growing number of leading merchants that have decided to accept Bitcoin payments. While Bitcoin’s rise as an alternative payment method is well-chronicled, Bitcoin’s impact extends further due to its use as an investment vehicle and its ability to spur the growth of an industry of Bitcoin-based businesses. Despite increasingly widespread use, Bitcoin (and other virtual currencies) have largely operated without the burden of regulation. Why? Like the potentially transformative innovations that preceded Bitcoin, virtual currency raises unique challenges for which existing legal models may be unprepared. As policymakers struggle to catch-up, the effort to develop an appropriate regulatory regime for virtual currency is at a critical juncture.The response in the United States has thus far involved regulatory bodies acting independently to clarify the treatment of virtual currency under a variety of different laws designed to regulate traditional payment systems, financial services, and investments. This Article argues, contrary to this approach, that a narrow focus on the technical application and extension of existing law creates a deficient regulatory regime. Instead, we suggest that policymakers should: (1) engage the various agency stakeholders to promote cross-communication; (2) think more globally about the wide spectrum of issues arising from virtual currency; and (3) embrace the unique and distinct characteristics of virtual currency. In support of this proposition, we show that refocusing on the collection of policy goals advanced by existing law offers policymakers an additional tool to aid in the development of a comprehensive, cohesive, and appropriately-scaled virtual currency regulatory model.
Bitcoin is the first decentralised, peer-to-peer network that allows for the proof and transfer of ownership of virtual currencies without the need for a trusted third party. The purpose of this article is to address how we can capture Bitcoin’s potential benefits for the economy while addressing new regulatory challenges.
The present paper seeks to effectively address the following question: What Bitcoin looks like? To do so, we regress Bitcoin price on a number of variables (Bitcoin fundamentals recorded in the literature) by applying an ARDL Bounds Testing approach for daily data covering the period from December 2010 to June 2014. Our findings highlight the speculative nature of Bitcoin. We also provide insightful evidence that Bitcoin may be used for economic reasons but there is any sign of being a safe haven. By considering the Chinese trading bankruptcy and the closing of Road Silk by FBI, the contribution of users’ interest stills sharply dominant, indicating the robustness of our results.
Off-Chain transactions allow for the immediate transfer of Cryptocurrency between two parties, without delays or unavoidable transaction fees. Such capabilities are critical for mainstream Cryptocurrency adaption. They allow for the "Coffee-Coin Criteria"; under which a customer orders a coffee and pays for that coffee in bitcoins. This is not possible with On-Chain transactions today. Unfortunately, all existing Off-Chain transaction protocols are notoriously unreliable The current generation of third-party facilitators are vulnerable to hacker-based attacks. As Mt. Gox tragically demonstrated, centralized-transaction institutions are easy targets for Cryptocurrency thieves. The slightest security flaw in a third-party system will pounced on by hackers, who will proceed to devour it like ants devouring a crab. Under such circumstances, it no wonder that the Public treats most Cryptocurrency services with a constant shadow of suspicion. For Bitcoin to flourish, its anti-hierarchy principles must be applied to safe Off-Chain transactions. First and foremost, we need a new hacker-proof protocol that can easily be executed by any experienced developer. Preferably, the protocol will be open-sourced for full reliability and transparency. This paper presents one such procedure, which allows for he safe transmission of Bitcoin private key control by way of Cryptocubic transactions.
David García, Claudio J. Tessone, Pavlin Mavrodiev, Nicolas Perony
What is the role of social interactions in the creation of price bubbles? Answering this question requires obtaining collective behavioural traces generated by the activity of a large number of actors. Digital currencies offer a unique possibility to measure socio-economic signals from such digital traces. Here, we focus on Bitcoin, the most popular cryptocurrency. Bitcoin has experienced periods of rapid increase in exchange rates (price) followed by sharp decline; we hypothesise that these fluctuations are largely driven by the interplay between different social phenomena. We thus quantify four socio-economic signals about Bitcoin from large data sets: price on on-line exchanges, volume of word-of-mouth communication in on-line social media, volume of information search, and user base growth. By using vector autoregression, we identify two positive feedback loops that lead to price bubbles in the absence of exogenous stimuli: one driven by word of mouth, and the other by new Bitcoin adopters. We also observe that spikes in information search, presumably linked to external events, precede drastic price declines. Understanding the interplay between the socio-economic signals we measured can lead to applications beyond cryptocurrencies to other phenomena which leave digital footprints, such as on-line social network usage.
This work project analyses the possibility for a company to trade their goods and services for bitcoins, by joining the Bitcoin network. It analyses the technological and business requirements to join the Bitcoin Network by looking at Bitcoin’s potential to act as a mean of exchange for trade, unit of account and store of value. The analysis points to the motives, benefits and risks for investors to use the Bitcoin as a traditional currency and recommends on strategies for addressing those risks and maximizing benefits. Other than companies this report, to a lesser extent, will also analyse the Bitcoin from an investor’s point of view, this is, should an investor buy bitcoins for trade and make savings on a regular and everyday basis? A major finding in this work project is that companies could start using the Bitcoin system as a legit form of payment since the benefits of using this technology outweigh the costs and risks, given the right approach. This form of payment will contribute for the upgrade of a company’s business’ image, attract a new pool of consumers and businesses that already trade in bitcoins and pressure existing financial institutions and electronic payment vendors to upgrade their service levels.
2008 yilinda bir makale ile ortaya cikan, 2009 yilinda ilk islemini gerceklestiren bilgisayar algoritmalariyla tasarlanmis Bitcoin, son iki yilda onemli kullanici kitlesi yakalayarak, talebini artirmis, piyasa degerini hizla yukseltmis online bir satin alma birimi ya da sanal para olarak tanimlanabilir. Isminin gercekligi bile supheli anonim bir kisi tarafindan aktif hale getirilen sistemde bir devlet, merkez bankasi gibi klasik para birimlerinin sahip olduklari otoriteler ve garantorler yer almadigi gibi denetim de soz konusu degildir. Islemler network uzerinde direkt olarak iki taraf arasinda herhangi bir araci kurum olmaksizin gerceklestirildiginden maliyeti yok denecek kadar azdir. Sozkonusu durum herhangi bir devlet otoritesinin kontrol ve sorumlulugunun olmamasindan dogabilecek handikaplari da icinde barindirmaktadir. Bununla birlikte sistemin bircok disiplini bir araya getirerek calisan bir yapiya sahip olmasi disiplinlerarasi isbirligi ile ne gibi yeniliklerin ortaya cikabileceginin gorulmesi acisindan oneme sahiptir. Bu calismada; Bitcoin’in dogusu, ozellikleri, Dunya’da ve Turkiye’deki gelisimi ve ekonomisi icindeki yeri, isleyis yontemi arastirilmis, yeni sanal para birimi ile ilgili mevcut durum analizi yapilmistir.
Bitcoin created as an academic article in 2008 and realized first transaction in 2009 is a digital/electronic currency which is designed on computer and built from calculating an algorithm. It developed rapidly and skyrocketed its market value in last two years by increasing its number of users and demand. The system designed by the pseudonymous person is not depend on neither any government nor a guarantor or an audit institution that the classical monetary system has. The transactions are realizing peer-to-peer network system and the cost of transaction is almost nothing. On the other hand Bitcoin inholds some of problems stemming from its uncontrollable features by any authority such as government, central banks etc. However the system which can be defined as a interdisciplinary study is a good sample in respect of digital innovations. In this study; emerge of Bitcoin, its features, place in World and Turkish economy, transaction methods are researched and worked on a SWOT analysis for new digital currency.
This paper analyzes correlations and causalities between Bitcoin market indicators and Twitter posts containing emotional signals on Bitcoin. Within a timeframe of 104 days (November 23rd 2013 - March 7th 2014), about 160,000 Twitter posts containing "bitcoin" and a positive, negative or uncertainty related term were collected and further analyzed. For instance, the terms "happy", "love", "fun", "good", "bad", "sad" and "unhappy" represent positive and negative emotional signals, while "hope", "fear" and "worry" are considered as indicators of uncertainty. The static (daily) Pearson correlation results show a significant positive correlation between emotional tweets and the close price, trading volume and intraday price spread of Bitcoin. However, a dynamic Granger causality analysis does not confirm a statistically significant effect of emotional Tweets on Bitcoin market values. To the contrary, the analyzed data shows that a higher Bitcoin trading volume Granger causes more signals of uncertainty within a 24 to 72-hour timeframe. This result leads to the interpretation that emotional sentiments rather mirror the market than that they make it predictable. Finally, the conclusion of this paper is that the microblogging platform Twitter is Bitcoin's virtual trading floor, emotionally reflecting its trading dynamics.
Predmetom bakalárskej práce je analýza problematiky virtuálnej meny Bitcoin. Teoretická časť sa zaoberá vysvetlením podstaty tejto virtuálnej meny, jej technickou implementáciou, problematikou bezpečnosti, priblížením právneho hľadiska, ďalej sa praktická časť venuje teoretickému vysvetleniu technickej a fundamentálnej analýzy a približuje aj základy psychologickej analýzy. V praktickej časti je analyzovaný vývoj kurzu bitcoinu od jeho vzniku po súčasnosť prostredníctvom fundamentálnej, technickej a psychologickej analýzy. Napokon sa práca venuje tvorbe predikčného modelu na základe uvedených analýz.
This paper presents an agent-based artificial cryptocurrency market in which heterogeneous agents buy or sell cryptocurrencies, in particular Bitcoins. In this market, there are two typologies of agents, Random Traders and Chartists, which interact with each other by trading Bitcoins. Each agent is initially endowed with a finite amount of crypto and/or fiat cash and issues buy and sell orders, according to her strategy and resources. The number of Bitcoins increases over time with a rate proportional to the real one, even if the mining process is not explicitly modelled. The model proposed is able to reproduce some of the real statistical properties of the price absolute returns observed in the Bitcoin real market. In particular, it is able to reproduce the autocorrelation of the absolute returns, and their cumulative distribution function. The simulator has been implemented using object-oriented technology, and could be considered a valid starting point to study and analyse the cryptocurrency market and its future evolutions.