This study investigates the scale-dependent structure of asymmetric volatility effect in six representative cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, Monero, and Dash. By developing the dynamical approach of DFA-based fractal regression analysis, we detect whether the volatility of price changes is positively or negatively related to return shocks at different time scales. We find that the asymmetric volatility phenomenon varies by scale and cryptocurrency, and the structure is time-varying. Contrary to what is typically observed in equity markets, minor currencies show an “inverse” asymmetric volatility effect at relatively large scales, where positive shocks (good news) have a greater impact on volatility than negative shocks (bad news). The consequences are discussed in the context of who is trading in the market and heterogeneity of the investors.
A monetary model is established to introduce that bitcoin does have the characteristics of a price rise when the economic situation is terrible under high risk aversion. At this time, Bitcoin has the property of a safe-haven asset, and when economic conditions are good and risk aversion is low, Bitcoin has a pro-cyclical nature. At this time, Bitcoin has a stronger property as a medium of exchange. To show the movement law of the bitcoin price, we make a logarithmic linearization of the model and simulation, and the result is consistent with the theoretical analysis. To better understand the role of bitcoin in the real economy, several standard portfolio models are used to measure the similarities and differences between gold and bitcoin in an investment portfolio. After the outbreak of COVID-19, bitcoin has shown stronger safe-haven asset properties.
In this study, we examine the relationship between changes in cryptocurrency trading volume and contemporaneous cryptocurrency returns. Additionally, we investigate the predictive power of changes in cryptocurrency trading volume for future cryptocurrency returns. We find a direct relationship between change in trading volume and the contemporaneous returns, consistent with Gervars, Kaniel and Mingelgrin for cryptocurrencies tradable on Coinbase exchange. Additionally, we uncover that the changes in trading volume have significant predictive power for future cryptocurrency returns for cryptocurrencies tradable on Coinbase exchange. We, however, do not find a connection between changes in trading volume and returns for cryptocurrencies not tradable on Coinbase exchange. Our findings suggest the presence of a weak-form inefficiency in the cryptocurrency market; cryptocurrency prices do not reflect available information.
In this paper, we build an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and analyze the short-term trends of the gold price (GP) and bitcoin price (BCP) based on historical data. In addition, we use MATLAB to perform statistics and analysis on the data, find that the probability of continuous depreciation or appreciation after day 5 decreases exponentially, and find the maximum and minimum fluctuations. Further, we build a trading strategy model that uses the Apriori algorithm to calculate the number of subsets where prices have risen or fallen for 5 consecutive days. Finally, we perform a sensitivity analysis on the established model.
Purpose Critics say cryptocurrencies are hard to predict and lack both economic value and accounting standards, while supporters argue they are revolutionary financial technology and a new asset class. This study aims to help accounting and financial modelers compare cryptocurrencies with other asset classes (such as gold, stocks and bond markets) and develop cryptocurrency forecast models. Design/methodology/approach Daily data from 12/31/2013 to 08/01/2020 (including the COVID-19 pandemic period) for the top six cryptocurrencies that constitute 80% of the market are used. Cryptocurrency price, return and volatility are forecasted using five traditional econometric techniques: pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, fixed-effect model (FEM), random-effect model (REM), panel vector error correction model (VECM) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH). Fama and French's five-factor analysis, a frequently used method to study stock returns, is conducted on cryptocurrency returns in a panel-data setting. Finally, an efficient frontier is produced with and without cryptocurrencies to see how adding cryptocurrencies to a portfolio makes a difference. Findings The seven findings in this analysis are summarized as follows: (1) VECM produces the best out-of-sample price forecast of cryptocurrency prices; (2) cryptocurrencies are unlike cash for accounting purposes as they are very volatile: the standard deviations of daily returns are several times larger than those of the other financial assets; (3) cryptocurrencies are not a substitute for gold as a safe-haven asset; (4) the five most significant determinants of cryptocurrency daily returns are emerging markets stock index, S&P 500 stock index, return on gold, volatility of daily returns and the volatility index (VIX); (5) their return volatility is persistent and can be forecasted using the GARCH model; (6) in a portfolio setting, cryptocurrencies exhibit negative alpha, high beta, similar to small and growth stocks and (7) a cryptocurrency portfolio offers more portfolio choices for investors and resembles a levered portfolio. Practical implications One of the tasks of the financial econometrics profession is building pro forma models that meet accounting standards and satisfy auditors. This paper undertook such activity by deploying traditional financial econometric methods and applying them to an emerging cryptocurrency asset class. Originality/value This paper attempts to contribute to the existing academic literature in three ways: Pro forma models for price forecasting: five established traditional econometric techniques (as opposed to novel methods) are deployed to forecast prices; Cryptocurrency as a group: instead of analyzing one currency at a time and running the risk of missing out on cross-sectional effects (as done by most other researchers), the top-six cryptocurrencies constitute 80% of the market, are analyzed together as a group using panel-data methods; Cryptocurrencies as financial assets in a portfolio: To understand the linkages between cryptocurrencies and traditional portfolio characteristics, an efficient frontier is produced with and without cryptocurrencies to see how adding cryptocurrencies to an investment portfolio makes a difference.
Md. Jamal Hossain, Mohd Tahir Ismail, Sadia Akter, Mohammad Raquibul Hossain
The popularity of Bitcoin increases with time and investors take it as an alternative investment due to continuous financial instability and uncertainty throughout the world.It can be an alternative not only for developed markets but also for emerging and frontier markets.Prior to now, researchers focused solely on developed markets.For this purpose, the present paper has explored the answer to the question of whether Bitcoin enables a hedge or diversifier or safe-haven against emerging and frontier stock market indices.Instead of previous analyses, here we have examined constancy relationships as well as time-varying relationships between Bitcoin with four stock indices of emerging and frontier stock markets of four different countries.We have applied the GJR-GARCH method to find the answer to the question, and we have also applied the Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model for cross-validation of the findings.Our empirical results have shown that Bitcoin has safe-haven abilities are in normal and turmoil market situations for emerging and frontier stock markets.Also, we have found evidence of hedging and diversification properties.
This study aims to identify the main drivers of Bitcoin volatility. The empirical analysis is based on a dynamic Bayesian model averaging approach for twenty-two potential determinants. The results reveal that the most important factors for Bitcoin volatility are Google trends, total circulation of Bitcoins, US consumer confidence and the S&P500 index.
The cryptocurrency market offers significant investment opportunities but also entails higher risks as compared to other asset classes. This article aims to analyse the financial risk characteristics of individual cryptocurrencies and of a broad cryptocurrency market portfolio. We construct a portfolio comprising the 20 largest cryptocurrencies, which cover 82.1% of the total cryptocurrency market. The returns are examined for extreme tail risks by the application of Extreme Value Theory. We utilise the GARCH-EVT approach in combination with a novel algorithm to automatically determine the optimal threshold to model the tail distribution. Furthermore, we aggregate the individual market risks with a t-Student Copula to investigate possible diversification effects on a portfolio level. The empirical analysis indicates that all examined cryptocurrencies show high volatility in their price movements, whereby Bitcoin acts as the most stable cryptocurrency. All return distributions are heavy-tailed and subject to extreme tail risks. We find strong, positive intra-market correlations, in particular with the two largest cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum. No diversification effect can be achieved by aggregating market risks. On the contrary, a negligibly lower expected return and higher joint extreme returns can be observed. From this analysis, it can be concluded that investments in individual cryptocurrencies as well as in a portfolio show extreme risks of losses. From the investor’s point of view, a possible strategy of risk reduction through portfolio formation within cryptocurrencies is only promising to a limited extent and does not offer a satisfactory solution to significantly reduce the risk within this asset class.
Abstract Developments in digital technologies are considered to be the most important innovations since the advent of the internet. In several countries, this has led to a significant change in the way payments are made, leading to new forms of payment, such as crypto-currencies. With regard to cryptocurrencies, it remains a complex issue involving especially volatility, but also money laundering and consumer protection issues. While most countries consider cryptocurrencies too volatile to be used as a payment alternative, crypto-currencies gain interest of investors in the last 10 years due to the possibility of obtaining large profits. The aim of the paper is to study the volatility of the first 5 cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, Cardano and Ripple) through GARCH models. The process of evaluating highly volatile cryptocurrencies is complex and depends on many parameters. Therefore, our results would be particularly useful in terms of portfolio and risk management and could help them to be more agile in evaluating their investments, in making optimal decisions and making future forecasts. We find that the GARCH (1.1) models provide the best fit, in terms of modelling of the volatility in the most popular and largest cryptocurrencies. The results show that for BTC, ETH and XRP the appropriate model is GARCH (1.1) and in the case of BNC and CARDANO GARCH-M explain better the volatility of the crypto-currencies. Therefore, more in depth analysis of the datasets may be required to confirm or deny possible structural change. The study can be complemented by carrying out an event study on the 5 cryptocurrencies analyzed or extending the analysis by applying other GARCH models, to research the optimal model for several cryptocurrencies.
The emergence of disruptive cryptocurrency platforms and decentralized finance (DEFI) has revolutionized the financial landscape over the last couple of years. Against this backdrop, and in view of the limited opportunities for diversification in the conventional assets, it becomes evident for the investors to look for better opportunities by searching for rather non-conventional assets like cryptocurrencies as a means of portfolio diversification. This study analyses the major cryptocurrencies based on their market capitalization and the major markets from MENA regions to evaluate the potential of cryptocurrencies in portfolio diversification. The study employs the mean-variance approach and then compares the results with the higher-order moments. We found that cryptocurrencies offer considerable potential for diversification for the MENA markets, but these exposures must be conservatively given the explosive price evolution and extreme volatility of the cryptocurrencies. The results also suggest that cryptocurrencies do not considerably contribute to the portfolio diversification in the uncertain market movements and crises, such as that witnessed during Fed's regime shift, accentuated by the Ukraine crisis.
Francesco Maria De Collibus, Matija Piškorec, Alberto Partida, Claudio J. Tessone
In this paper, we use the methods of networks science to analyse the transaction networks of tokens running on the Ethereum blockchain. We start with a deep dive on four of them: Ampleforth (AMP), Basic Attention Token (BAT), Dai (DAI) and Uniswap (UNI). We study two types of blockchain addresses, smart contracts (SC), which run code, and externally owned accounts (EOA), run by human users, or off-chain code, with the corresponding private keys. We use preferential attachment and network dismantling strategies to evaluate their importance for the network structure. Subsequently, we expand our view to all ERC-20 tokens issued on the Ethereum network. We first study multilayered networks composed of Ether (ETH) and individual tokens using a dismantling approach to assess how the deconstruction starting from one network affects the other. Finally, we analyse the Ether network and Ethereum-based token networks to find similarities between sets of high-degree nodes. For this purpose, we use both the traditional Jaccard Index and a new metric that we introduce, the Ordered Jaccard Index (OJI), which considers the order of the elements in the two sets that are compared. Our findings suggest that smart contracts and exchange-related addresses play a structural role in transaction networks both in DeFi and Ethereum. The presence in the network of nodes associated to addresses of smart contracts and exchanges is positively correlated with the success of the token network measured in terms of network size and market capitalisation. These nodes play a fundamental role in the centralisation of the supposedly decentralised finance (DeFi) ecosystem: without them, their networks would quickly collapse.
Antonio Briola, David Vidal-Tomás, Yuanrong Wang, Tomaso Aste
We quantitatively describe the main events that led to the Terra project's failure in May 2022. We first review, in a systematic way, news from heterogeneous social media sources; we discuss the fragility of the Terra project and its vicious dependence on the Anchor protocol. We hence identify the crash's trigger events, analysing hourly and transaction data for Bitcoin, Luna, and TerraUSD. Finally, using state-of-the-art techniques from network science, we study the evolution of dependency structures for 61 highly capitalised cryptocurrencies during the down-market and we also highlight the absence of herding behaviour analysing cross-sectional absolute deviation of returns.
Giordano De Marzo, Francesco Pandolfelli, Vito D. P. Servedio
Blockchains are among the most relevant emerging technologies of recent times and, according to many, they will have a central role in shaping the future of our society. Since the introduction of Bitcoin in 2009, the first notorious blockchain system bound to a cryptocurrency, the blockchain ecosystem has experienced a huge growth, driven by innovations both in conceptual and algorithmic terms, and in the creation of a large number of new cryptocoins. New blockchains and their associated cryptocoins, emerge mostly as the result of forking already existing projects. Here, we show that the appearance of new cryptocoins can be well described by a sub-linear power-law (Heaps' law) of the total crypto-market capitalization. At the same time, we propose a model that well reproduces the evolution of the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Our model suggests that each cryptocurrency triggers, on average, the creation of ca. 1.58 novel cryptocoins, a result confirmed by the analysis of the Bitcoin historical forking tree. Moreover, we deduce that the largest cryptocurrency, nowadays Bitcoin, will comprise around the 50% of the whole crypto-market and that this fraction is going to stabilize in the near future, provided that the present fundamental macro-economic conditions do not change radically.
Digital currencies such as Ethereum and XRP allow for all transactions to be carried out online. To emphasize the decentralized nature of fiat currency, we can refer, for example, to the fact that all virtual currency users may access services without third-party involvement. Cryptocurrency price swings are non-stationary and highly erratic, similarly to the price changes of conventional stocks. Owing to the appeal of cryptocurrencies, both investors and researchers have paid more attention to cryptocurrency price forecasts. With the rise of deep learning, cryptocurrency forecasting has gained great importance. In this study, we present a long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm that can be used to forecast the values of four types of cryptocurrencies: AMP, Ethereum, Electro-Optical System, and XRP. Mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), and normalize root mean square error (NRMSE) analyses were used to evaluate the LSTM model. The findings obtained from these models showed that the LSTM algorithm had superior performance in predicting all forms of cryptocurrencies. Thus, it can be regarded as the most effective algorithm. The LSTM model provided promising and accurate forecasts for all cryptocurrencies. The model was applied to forecast the future closing prices of cryptocurrencies over a period of 180 days. The Pearson correlation metric was applied to assess the correlation between the prediction and target values in the training and testing processes. The LSTM algorithm achieved the highest correlation values in training (R = 96.73%) and in testing (96.09%) in predicting XRP currency prices. Cryptocurrency prices could be accurately predicted using the established LSTM model, which displayed highly efficient performance. The relevance of applying these models is that they may have huge repercussions for the economy by assisting investors and traders in identifying trends in the sales and purchases of different types of cryptocurrencies. The results of the LSTM model were compared with those of existing systems. The results of this study demonstrate that the proposed model showed superior accuracy based on the low prediction errors of the proposed system.
Alfonso Guarino, Luca Grilli, Domenico Santoro, Francesco Messina · 5 authors
Abstract Financial bubbles represent a severe problem for investors. In particular, the cryptocurrency market has witnessed the bursting of different bubbles in the last decade, which in turn have had spillovers on all the markets and real economies of countries. These kinds of markets and their unique characteristics are of great interest to researchers. Generally, investors and financial operators study market trends to understand when bubbles might occur using technical analysis tools. Such tools, which have been historically used, resulted in being precious allies at the basis of more advanced systems. In this regard, different autonomous, adaptive and automated trading agents have been introduced in the literature to study several kinds of markets. Among these, we can distinguish between agents with Zero/Minimal Intelligence (ZI/MI) and Computational Intelligence (CI) -based agents. The first ones typically trade on the market without resorting to complex learning strategies; the second ones usually use (deep) reinforcement learning mechanisms. However, these trading agents have never been tested on the cryptocurrencies market and related financial bubbles, which are still mostly overlooked in the literature. It is unclear how these agents can make profits/losses before, during, and after a bubble to adjust their strategy and avoid critical situations. This paper compares a broad set of trading agents (between ZI/MI and CI ones) and evaluates them with well-known financial indicators (e.g., volatility, returns Sharpe ratio , drawdown, Sortino and Omega ratio ). Among the experiment’s outcomes, ZI/MI agents were more explainable than CI ones. Based on the results obtained above, we introduce GGSMZ , a trading agent relying on a neuro-fuzzy mechanism. The neuro-fuzzy system is able to learn from the trades performed by the agents adopted in the previous stage. GGSMZ ’s performances overcome those of other tested agents. We argue that GGSMZ could be used by investors as a decision support tool.