We present an agent based stock flow consistent macroeconomic model with heterogeneous agents interacting through a decentralized matching process across multiple markets with multiple assets. The model is consistent across both the micro and macroeconomic levels, by providing a detailed, comprehensive, and rigorous accounting of real and financial flows and stocks. We implement the model using a brand new Java programming platform, explicitly designed for AB-SFC models.
We show that the cost of employee turnover in firms that rely on decentralized knowledge and personal relationships depends on the firms' planning horizons and the departing employees' incentives to transfer information. Using exogenous shocks to the relationship between borrowers and loan officers, we document that borrowers whose loan officers are on leave are less likely to receive new loans from the bank, are more likely to apply for credit from other banks, and are more likely to miss payments or go into default. These costs are smaller when turnover is expected, as in the case of maternity leave, or when loan officers have incentives to transfer information, as in the case of voluntary resignations. This paper was accepted by Wei Jiang, finance.
The financial crisis has led to a widespread loss of trust in financial intermediaries of all kinds, perhaps helping to open the way towards the general acceptance of alternative technologies. This paper briefly summarises the crypto-currency phenomenon, separating the âcurrencyâ issues from the potential technology benefits. With respect to crypto currencies, the paper argues that these canât undermine the ability of central banks to conduct monetary policy. They do, however, raise consumer protection and bank secrecy issues. The valuation of Bitcoins and price volatility issues are discussed, as well as electronic theft, contract failures, etc., all of which could result in large losses to users and hence ultimate costs to the taxpayer (e.g. the failure to provide adequate private pensions resulting in increased reliance on public pensions). The anonymity features of the crypto-currencies also facilitate tax evasion and money laundering, both of which are major public policy concerns. The technology associated with crypto-currencies, on the other hand, could ultimately shift the entire basis of trust involved in any financial transaction. It is an innovation that creates the ability to carry out transactions without the need for a trusted third party; i.e. a move towards trust-less transactions. This mechanism could work to eliminate the role of many intermediaries, thereby reducing transactions costs by introducing much needed competition to incumbent firms. The generic issues that policy makers need to examine are summarised.
Pavel Ciaian, Miroslava RajÄĂĄniovĂĄ, dâArtis Kancs
This is the first article that studies BitCoin price formation by considering both the traditional determinants of currency price, e.g., market forces of supply and demand, and digital currencies specific factors, e.g., BitCoin attractiveness for investors and users. The conceptual framework is based on the Barro (1979) model, from which we derive testable hypotheses. Using daily data for five years (2009â2015) and applying time-series analytical mechanisms, we find that market forces and BitCoin attractiveness for investors and users have a significant impact on BitCoin price but with variation over time. Our estimates do not support previous findings that macro-financial developments are driving BitCoin price in the long run.
Razsirjenost uporabe virtualnih denarnih valut se v zadnjem casu naglo povecuje, kar napeljuje na potrebo po podrobnejsi seznanitvi z njimi. Virtualne denarne valute, ki iz tehnicnega vidika ponujajo relativno dovrsen in delujoc sistem, obenem prinasajo stevilne negotovosti na podrocju njihovega umescanja v obstojece zakonodajne okvire. Zakonodajalci in pravni strokovnjaki po svetu so sele pred kratkim zaceli odkrivati ta fenomen. V diplomskem delu je iz pravne, ekonomske in tehnicne plati predstavljen sistem virtualnih denarnih valut s poudarkom na valuti bitcoin. Sirok vpogled v delovanje sistema je podlaga za razumevanje zakonodajnih procesov, ki bodo sooblikovali prihodnost virtualnih denarnih valut. Diplomsko delo povzema del zakonodajnih in regulacijskih procesov v razlicnih pravnih redih, ki na teoreticni in prakticni ravni skusajo vkljuciti virtualne denarne valute v urejene pravne okvire.
I explore a popular Bitcoin futures market and make empirical observations on the divergence between standard futures model and the observed futures prices by backing out what the implied risk-free rate of return would be if the standard assumptions held for this exchange. Intended as a blog post.
This paper uses a contract theory framework to analyze the mechanisms of eurozone financial governance, with a focus on centralization vs. decentralization and incentive problems. By constructing a Stackelberg game model with n Ministries of Finance as the first movers and the European Central Bank as the second mover, we show that each government can create growth in its own country (self-benefit) by increasing government spending, but that this will increase inflation, resulting in a decrease in the value of the euro. As these effects are shared equally by eurozone countries (cost sharing), an incentive to free-ride at the expense of other countries is present. We then analyze a penalty-based solution to the free-rider problem and derive a second-best solution where a commitment not to renegotiate penalties ex-post is impossible. The optimal solution shows that ¥°limited sovereignty, ¥± that is, substantially constrained fiscal sovereignty, should be imposed as a high marginal cost for the issuance of public debt. Finally, we close the paper by discussing the possibility of Fiscal Integration (Fiscal Union).
A private initiative that has created a virtual currency and a payment system based on cryptography and decentralized management, Bitcoin is considered not only an interesting, but also a disruptive technical innovation by many observers. A number of regulatory and supervisory bodies have issued assessments of the phenomenon, contributing to an emerging international discussion. Does Bitcoinâs claim to provide useful monetary and payment services hold up when checked against principles of monetary theory and the economics of payment systems? We find that while Bitcoin does not rival the established money and payment systems in their traditional domains, a complementary function is conceivable in niches. Using the Bitcoin network poses several risks to customers, however. Since this network and financial services related to bitcoins are not regulated, costumers must take appropriate technical measures to protect their bitcoin holdings. In case of error and fraud, payments are difficult to reverse. Furthermore, the significant exchange rate fluctuations could pose a grave risk to bitcoin ownersâ wealth and discourage widespread use for monetary purposes. In a nutshell, at present, bitcoins can be regarded as speculative assets, and the Bitcoin network might inspire further innovation in payment systems and other applications.
This paper discusses the potential and limitations of Bitcoin as a digital currency. Bitcoin as a digital asset has been extensively discussed from the viewpoints of engineering and security design. But there are few economic analyses of Bitcoin as a currency. Bitcoin was designed as a payments vehicle and as a store of value (or speculation). It has no use bar as money or currency. Despite recent enthusiasm for Bitcoin, it seems very unlikely that currencies provided by central banks are at risk of being replaced, primarily because of the market price instability of Bitcoin (i.e. the exchange rate against the major currencies). We diagnose the instability of market price of Bitcoin as being a symptom of the lack of flexibility in the Bitcoin supply schedule â a predetermined algorithm in which the proof of work is the major driving force. This paper explores the problem of instability from the viewpoint of economics and suggests a new monetary policy rule (i.e. monetary policy without a central bank) for stabilizing the values of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
We are calling for comparisons of banking and banking systems from a spatial perspective. Therefore, this paper develops a classification identifying decentralized and centralized banking according to two characteristics: geographical market orientation (regional vs. supraregional) â to determine whether banks facilitate regional savings-investment cycles â and place of decision-making (proximity vs. distance) â to identify whether the flow of soft information is supported in SME lending. The degree of banksâ centralization is also approximated by the spatial concentration of bank employees and shows remarkable explanatory power in Germany, as de-centralized banks increase lending at the expense of centralized banks.
Though Bitcoin currently enjoys a healthy niche, the aspirations of many in the project are grander: to supplant the existing regime of fiat currencies with cryptocurrencies, and to do so outside of normal political channels. Its primary practical obstacle is its purchasing power volatility, arising from a rigid money stock in the face of wide swings in demand. Nevertheless, the historical example of gold, another (much more successful) money commodity with a more or less rigid supply, illuminates the institutional prerequisites for purchasing power stability, economic efficiency, and sustained growth â namely a market of financial intermediaries whose liabilities denominated in the base money themselves circulate as media of exchange. This paper discusses potential benefits and hurdles to establishing financial intermediation in cryptocurrency, as well as the possibility of managing the money supply to create a stable purchasing power cryptocurrency without the need for intermediation at all. Such schemes ultimately require an existing market of intermediaries in order to provide any benefits, the emergence of which governments are for the moment well-positioned to prevent.
This paper provides the necessary technical background to understand basic Bitcoin operations and documents a set of empirical regularities related to Bitcoin usage. We present the micro-structure of the Bitcoin transaction process and highlight the use of cryptography for the purposes of transaction security and distributed maintenance of a ledger. Using publicly available transaction-level data, we examine patterns of general usage together with usage by Satoshi Dice, the largest online gambling service using Bitcoin as the method of payment. Our analysis suggests that less than 50 percent of all bitcoins in circulation are used in transactions. About half of these transactions involve less than U.S.$100 equivalent, and for the period for which we have data for Satoshi Dice, most of these small-value transactions were related to the online gambling service. Relatively less frequent large value transactions drive the average transaction value to levels above U.S.$40,00 0 equivalent value, and are not likely to involve payments for goods and services. Bitcoin exchange rates exhibit somewhat complicated dynamics. In the past 24 months, the USD-BTC exchange rate increased more than 50-fold. The daily variance of the USD-BTC exchange rate remained remarkably stable for this same period, once the variance calculations account for the changing exchange rate level. We also document that the exchange rates between bitcoin and other major currencies are not well aligned. We interpret this as lack of depth of the exchange markets and as costly exchange rather than as unexploited arbitrage opportunities. Finally, we examine the economic incentives for the participants in the distributed implementation of the Bitcoin scheme.
The next major wave of Bitcoin regulation will likely be aimed at financial instruments, including securities and derivatives, as well as prediction markets and even gambling. While there are many easily regulated intermediaries when it comes to traditional securities and derivatives, emerging bitcoin-denominated instruments rely much less on traditional intermediaries such as banks and securities exchanges. Additionally, the block chain technology that Bitcoin introduced for the first time makes completely decentralized markets and exchanges possible, thus eliminating the need for intermediaries in complex financial transactions. In this Article we survey the type of financial instruments and transactions that will most likely be of interest to regulators, including traditional securities and derivatives, new bitcoin-denominated instruments, and completely decentralized markets and exchanges. We find that Bitcoin derivatives would likely not be subject to the full scope of regulation under the Commodity Exchange Act to the extent that such derivatives involve physical delivery (as opposed to cash settlement) or are non-fungible and not independently traded. We also find that some laws, including those aimed at online gambling, do not contemplate a payment method like Bitcoin, thus placing many transactions in a legal gray area. Following the approach to virtual currencies taken by the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, we argue that other financial regulators should consider exempting or excluding certain financial transactions denominated in Bitcoin from the full scope of their regulations, much like private securities offerings and forward contracts are treated. We also suggest that to the extent that regulation and enforcement becomes more costly than its benefits, policymakers should consider and pursue strategies consistent with that new reality, such as efforts to encourage resilience and adaptation by existing institutions.
MeilÄ JasienÄ, Arvydas PaĆĄkeviÄius, Ieva AstrauskaitÄ
Searching for alternative source of bank financing, the view on capital market is taken. Recent research on capital market issues are arranged into four dimensions: theory and assumptions of efficient capital market, governmentâs role in it, other distortions and global interrelatedness. Main investigations are decentralized and visualized in âtheoretical eightâ model. Conclusions made on the diversity of interpretation of market efficiency, strongly expressed demand of information symmetry, soft actions of governments and the value of foreign performance in domestic markets. Furthermore, new approach to the classification of countries by their maturity in capital market is argued. The state of art of 2009-2012 of bond market and government debt is briefly described.
The virtual currency and payment project Bitcoin intends to challenge the current monetary and payment system that finds itself in a legitimacy crisis in the aftermath of the financial market turmoil of 2008. In examining the governance of the Bitcoin system, I try to assess its potential to create input and output legitimacy as a payment system and as a monetary system in comparison with current practice.
The title of this Symposium originally was âRethinking Financial and Securities Markets.â It is, of course, somewhat presumptuous for scholars to try to rethink financial markets per se. Markets, including financial markets, are driven primarily by supply and demand. But scholars can and should try to influence the future of financial markets by rethinking their fundamental aspects. This Symposium presents work from leading scholars in the fields of law, economics, finance, and accounting. I will try to frame the discussion from the perspectives of these four disciplines. First, however, we need to identify what it is about financial markets that is worth rethinking. I will focus on ways in which financial markets have been changing. They are increasingly decentralized and fragmented. They are increasingly direct sources of firm capitalâa process called disintermediation. They are increasingly global. They are increasingly creating funding mismatches, as short-term securities are used to finance long-term capital needs. And they (as well as financial market products) are increasingly complex and obscure to market participants, even with full disclosure. I will refer to these âfinancial market changesâ throughout my talk.
Technological development and the increased use of the internet have led to the proliferation of virtual communities. Some of these communities have created and circulated their own currency for exchanging goods and services. Bitcoin is currently the most popular among these virtual or digital currencies and has been in news recently because of the wild fluctuations in its âvalueâ and also significant venture capital investment in entities associated with it.1 Bitcoin is relevant in several areas of the financial system and is therefore of interest to central banks, consumers and investors. Digital currencies are part of a broader group of virtual currencies that include credit card points, air miles, loyalty points and coupons (Chart 1). With the advent of the Internet, mobile devices and detailed consumer information, companies are increasingly using digital currencies as a marketing tool. As a result, there has been a sharp increase in the use of digital currencies, particularly for app-based coins and tokens, mobile coupons, and personal data exchanged for digital content. As these trends evolve, digital currencies have the potential to become more popular and compete with traditional currencies. This paper aims to provide some clarity in particular on Bitcoin, its role and potential future use in the financial system and the risks associated with this form of digital currency.. It will begin by providing a short introduction to the Bitcoin network as well as describe the benefits of allowing the Bitcoin network to develop and innovate. It will highlight concerns for consumers, policymakers and financial regulators. Next it will analyze the role that Bitcoin could play in the financial system. The paper will conclude by providing recommendations to address policymakersâ concerns while allowing for further innovation within the Bitcoin network. An initial comprehensive overview of this kind is absent from the existing literature. This paper intends to fill that gap in the literature.
In an earlier article, I argued that shadow bankingâthe provision of financial services and products outside of the traditional banking system, and thus without the need for bank intermediation between capital markets and the users of fundsâis so radically transforming finance that regulatory scholars need to rethink their basic assumptions. This Article attempts to rethink the corporate governance assumption that owners of firms should always have their liability limited to the capital they have invested. In the relatively small and decentralized firms that dominate shadow banking, equity investors tend to be active managers. Limited liability gives these investor-managers strong incentives to take risks that could generate outsized personal profits, even if that greatly increases systemic risk. For shadow banking firms subject to this conflict, limited liability should be redesigned to better align investor and societal interests.
Applying the Monti-Klein framework, we examine the optimal financing strategy of a fi rm that requires funding for individual projects at an imperfect credit market. In particular, we study under which circumstances the firm should raise debt for projects separately (decentralized funding) or jointly (centralized funding) and how this organizational choice af fects the selection and resource allocation among projects. We fi nd that it is optimal to decentralize funding when competition at the credit market and the fi rm s level of equity are both either rather low or rather high. In this case, funding the strongest projects is optimal. For intermediate values of competition and equity, centralized funding is optimal. In this case, bundling strong projects with weak projects can be optimal (corporate socialism). All these funding strategies serve winner picking, i.e. the firm shifts disproportionately more funds to the pro table projects. In contrast to previous literature, winner picking and corporate socialism are not necessarily exclusive; rather, corporate socialism allows winner picking more aggressively.
What is the legal status of a âbitcoin,â a decentralized peer-to-peer digital currency? Is the use of bitcoins even legal? Should it be? The bitcoin cybercurrency thus poses a puzzle. Unlike centralized and publicly-created metallic or paper currencies, bitcoin is a privately-created, decentralized medium of exchange and thus is not backed by any national or transnational government or by any public or private bank. As such, the legal status of the bitcoin cybercurrency is murky and unclear at best. Despite this legal uncertainty, the demand for bitcoins on the Internet continues to grow. The authors will present a legal, normative, and game-theoretic analysis of the bitcoin cybercurrency. To provide a theoretical background to our legal and normative analysis, the first part of the paper will present an analytical model of the behavior of bitcoin users. In summary, the use of bitcoins can be modeled as a Prisonerâs Dilemma. That is, because of the limited supply of bitcoins and the rising demand of this cybercurrency, the temptation to defect by hoarding this currency -- rather than using bitcoins for the exchange of goods and services -- threatens the stability of the bitcoin cybercurrency as a whole. In the second part of the paper, the authors consider the legal status of bitcoins, discuss the policy and normative arguments for and against the legalization of bitcoins, and propose several possible legal frameworks for protecting the bitcoin cybercurrency and solving the bitcoin puzzle.