The cryptocurrency market grew from a $1.5 billion market capitalization in early 2013 to over $795 billion in January 2018. Bitcoin, an exemplar cryptocurrency, gained value from $0.08 before 2010 to over $17,000 per bitcoin in December 2017. While cryptocurrencies have campaigned for revolutionizing financial transactions, the crypto-market is plagued by nefarious minds, fleecing investors in frauds and Ponzi schemes. This crypto-mania therefore presents numerous legal and regulatory challenges that demand prompt and efficient responses. Nevertheless, the decentralized, anonymous nature of cryptocurrencies magnifies these challenges and has constantly outpaced the law’s ability to respond. To understand the effects of different regulatory strategies, this Note compares regulatory landscapes on cryptocurrency between the U.S. and China. In a nutshell, while China explicitly banned any exchange or financing activities between fiat money and “coin substitution” in 2017, the U.S. has placed cryptocurrencies within its existing legal labyrinth. What explains the difference and what is its result? Rather than reducing the regulatory variances simply to differences in political ideologies, this Note attempts to explain the reasons behind the two countries’ drastically different regulatory approaches by understanding the regulators’ institutional capacities and objectives. This Note also identifies the interesting impacts of the two countries’ regulatory approach. Namely, China has attempted to substitute the crypto-market with state-led projects and even potential crypto-fiats, while the U.S. regulatory framework has maintained its consistency, but left some areas lawless while others potentially over- regulated. Part I of this Note introduces the background of cryptocurrency and its technological strengths and weaknesses. Part II surveys the existing regulatory landscapes of the U.S. and China. Part III explains the reasons why the two countries take drastically different approaches in regulating cryptocurrency. Part IV lists comparative strengths and weaknesses between the two regulatory frameworks. Part V concludes and cautiously makes policy recommendations.
David Allessie, Maciej Sobolewski, Lorenzino Vaccari
In less than ten years from its advent in 2008, the concept of distributed ledgers has entered into mainstream research and policy agendas. Enthusiastic reception, fuelled by the success of Bitcoin and the explosion of potential use cases created high, if not hyped, expectations with respect to the transformative role of blockchain for the industry and the public sector. Growing experimentation with distributed ledgers and the emergence of the first operational implementations provide an opportunity to go beyond hype and speculation based on theoretical use cases. This report looks at the ongoing exploration of blockchain technology by governments. The analysis of a group of pioneering developments of public services shows that blockchain technology can reduce bureaucracy, increase the efficiency of administrative processes and increase the level of trust in public recordkeeping. Based on the state-of-art developments, blockchain has not yet demonstrated to be either transformative or even disruptive an innovation for governments as it is sometimes portrayed. Ongoing projects bring incremental rather than fundamental changes to the operational capacities of governments. Nevertheless some of them offer clear value for citizens. Technological and ecosystem maturity of distributed ledgers have to increase in order to unlock the transformative power of blockchain. Policy agenda should focus on non-technological barriers, such as incompatibility between blockchain-based solutions and existing legal and organizational frameworks. This principal policy goal cannot be achieved by adapting technology to legacy systems. It requires using the transformative power of blockchain to be used to create new processes, organizations, structures and standards. Hence, policy support should stimulate more experimentation with both the technology and new administrative processes that can be re-engineered for blockchain.
Current research has led to a rejection of the hypothesis of a normal distribution of financial assets returns. Under these conditions, portfolio variance cannot serve as a good risk measure. In this paper analyzed the daily returns of the most common cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, XRP, Ethereum, NEM. It is shown that the asset returns are not normally distributed, but with good precision follow the Cauchy distribution. The analytical expressions for risk measure were obtained using the Cauchy distribution function and the VaR technique. The efficient frontiers of cryptocurrencies portfolios were constructed using modified Markowitz model. The purpose of the article is to assess the risks of major cryptocurrencies and to diversify the risk of cryptocurrency investing by applying a portfolio model
Abstract This paper examines whether there exists a momentum effect after one-day abnormal returns in the cryptocurrency market. For this purpose, a number of hypotheses of interest are tested for the Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin exchange rates vis-à-vis the US dollar over the period 01.01.2015–01.09.2019, specifically whether or not: (H1) the intraday behavior of hourly returns is different on abnormal days compared to normal days; (H2) there is a momentum effect on days with abnormal returns, and (H3) after one-day abnormal returns. The methods used for the analysis include various statistical methods as well as a trading simulation approach. The results suggest that hourly returns during the day of positive/negative abnormal returns are significantly higher/lower than those during the average positive/negative day. The presence of abnormal returns can usually be detected before the day ends by estimating specific timing parameters. Prices tend to move in the direction of the abnormal returns till the end of the day when it occurs, which implies the existence of a momentum effect on that day giving rise to exploitable profit opportunities. This effect (together with profit opportunities) is also observed on the following day. In two cases (BTCUSD positive abnormal returns and ETHUSD negative abnormal returns), a contrarian effect is detected instead.
The purpose of this paper is to examine if there is cointegration between the daily closing price of the cryptocurrency Bitcoin and five other cryptocurrencies; Ethereum, Ripple, Bitcoin Cash, EOS and Litecoin in five different time periods, all ending April 9, 2019. To test if there is a long-run relationship between Bitcoin and these mentioned cryptocurrencies, two different tests for cointegration are applied; the Engle-Granger two step approach and Johansen’s cointegration test as well as a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results from both cointegration tests suggest that Bitcoin is cointegrated with Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple. The Johansen test and the Engle-Granger method for cointegration demonstrate that Bitcoin and EOS do not have any cointegrating relationship. Another finding is that, based on the results from the VECM estimation, the price of Bitcoin has a statistically significant long-run impact on the prices of Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple.
The electronic transition has been gaining a large groundin recent decades due to the use of crypto currencies. One of the most popular is Bitcoin. It is open source, the transactions and the issuance of bitcoins occur collectively through the network.The analysis of the behavior of Bitcoin becomes a relevance to the prediction Price and achieve successful investments in it.This review is conducted for the analysis and comparison of the of the different prediction methods focused on the bitcoin price. Anemphasis is placed on those who have a structure as the basis of the ARIMA model, then adding to the hybrid methods, which use neural networks to complete the method.
This article has developed a structural equation model, aimed at evaluating the impact factors on people’s holding intention of Bitcoin, a cryptocurrency created by the Blockchain technology. Specifically, this study directs its attention on the Bitcoin holder's perceived value and risk, the moderating effects of gender, income, age, and the experience of digital token provided by the respondents. The conclusions are: (1) The majority of individuals do not have any understanding of the values or risks of Bitcoin; (2) The more transaction and speculative risks of Bitcoin people perceive, the less government intervention they are expected to have. Nevertheless, even if government intervention is necessary, it would not impact their holding intention; (3) The higher value of Bitcoin people perceive, the more government intervention people would prefer. Despite this preference, people's holding intention remains intact. However, its degree of influence is definitely less conspicuous than the above effect of the second conclusion; and (4) The government advocacy about the values and risks of Bitcoin should be differentiated by the more nuanced factors such as gender, income, the experience of digital token usage, and age of users, in order to obtain an effective regulation of Bitcoin.
Blockchain is a distributed ledger, which is protected against malicious modifications by means of cryptographic tools, e.g. digital signatures and hash functions. One of the most prominent applications of blockchains is cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin. In this work, we consider a particular attack on wallets for collecting assets in a cryptocurrency network based on brute-force search attacks. Using Bitcoin as an example, we demonstrate that if the attack is implemented successfully, a legitimate user is able to prove that fact of this attack with a high probability. We also consider two options for modification of existing cryptocurrency protocols for dealing with this type of attacks. First, we discuss a modification that requires introducing changes in the Bitcoin protocol and allows diminishing the motivation to attack wallets. Second, an alternative option is the construction of special smart-contracts, which reward the users for providing evidence of the brute-force attack. The execution of this smart-contract can work as an automatic alarm that the employed cryptographic mechanisms, and (particularly) hash functions, have an evident vulnerability.
This paper studies the forecasting ability of cryptocurrency time series. This study is about the four most capitalized cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple. Different Bayesian models are compared, including models with constant and time-varying volatility, such as stochastic volatility and GARCH. Moreover, some crypto-predictors are included in the analysis, such as S\&P 500 and Nikkei 225. In this paper the results show that stochastic volatility is significantly outperforming the benchmark of VAR in both point and density forecasting. Using a different type of distribution, for the errors of the stochastic volatility the student-t distribution came out to be outperforming the standard normal approach.
Anthony Ngunyi, Simon Mundia, Cyprian Ondieki Omari
Cryptocurrencies have become increasingly popular in recent years attracting the attention of the media, academia, investors, speculators, regulators, and governments worldwide. This paper focuses on modelling the volatility dynamics of eight most popular cryptocurrencies in terms of their market capitalization for the period starting from 7th August 2015 to 1st August 2018. In particular, we consider the following cryptocurrencies; Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple, Moreno, Dash, Stellar and NEM. The GARCH-type models assuming different distributions for the innovations term are fitted to cryptocurrencies data and their adequacy is evaluated using diagnostic tests. The selected optimal GARCH-type models are then used to simulate out-of-sample volatility forecasts which are in turn utilized to estimate the one-day-ahead VaR forecasts. The empirical results demonstrate that the optimal in-sample GARCH-type specifications vary from the selected out-of-sample VaR forecasts models for all cryptocurrencies. Whilst the empirical results do not guarantee a straightforward preference among GARCH-type models, the asymmetric GARCH models with long memory property and heavy-tailed innovations distributions overall perform better for all cryptocurrencies.
This study applies threshold regression model in a bivariate framework to explore the nonlinear and long-term relationship among daily Bitcoin and gold prices over the period April 2010 to December 2018. Our empirical results are threefold: first, we show that gold is a significant predictor of Bitcoin prices. Second, we find evidence of a non-linear relationship between Bitcoin and gold prices characterized rather by a two-regime relationship with a structural break occurring in October 2017. Third, we explain the existence at before the break, there is statistically significant, negative but weak causality indicating that Bitcoin is a speculative asset. However, after the break, the relationship becomes positive and strong revealing the diversifier and hedge properties of Bitcoin.
Abstract The use of blockchain technology has increased tremendously over the last decade. Blockchain continues to evolve and new features and capabilities are developed continuously. Although the use of the technology started in cryptocurrency (specifically, Bitcoin), it has expanded to other areas that can benefit from a shared, secure, ledger. This article investigates the potential impact of blockchain technology on the accounting profession. This article analyzes data security and privacy considerations, technology, adoption, and implementation considerations, and some considerations that relate specifically to accounting and auditing. We find that the unique needs of an accounting information system may not be a good match for blockchain as it currently exists. While we explain that blockchain may deliver many benefits, particularly in the areas of data reliability and the financial statement audit, we identify several factors, which raise significant questions about whether blockchain will ever be significantly integrated in the accounting function. Chief among those concerns is the scalability of the technology at an acceptable cost. While significant investment has and will be made for further development of blockchain business applications, it is our assessment that proponents of blockchain integration in accounting have not yet made the economic case for it. We also have significant concerns about whether blockchain technology can adequately address risks associated with data security and privacy. Addressing all these issues will be a minimum requirement for gaining widespread acceptance by firms and their accountants.
Stephan Zöllner, Kim‐Kwang Raymond Choo, Nhien‐An Le‐Khac
Bitcoin is popular not only with consumers, but also with cybercriminals (e.g., in ransomware and online extortion, and commercial online child exploitation). Given the potential of Bitcoin to be involved in a criminal investigation, the need to have an up-to-date and in-depth understanding on the forensic acquisition and analysis of Bitcoins is crucial. However, there has been limited forensic research of Bitcoin in the literature. The general focus of existing research is on postmortem analysis of specific locations (e.g. wallets on mobile devices), rather than a forensic approach that combines live data forensics and postmortem analysis to facilitate the identification, acquisition, and analysis of forensic traces relating to the use of Bitcoins on a system. Hence, the latter is the focus of this paper where we present an open source tool for live forensic and postmortem analysing automatically. Using this open source tool, we describe a list of target artifacts that can be obtained from a forensic investigation of popular Bitcoin clients and Web Wallets on different web browsers installed on Windows 7 and Windows 10 platforms.
Blockchain, the distributed ledger technology underlying cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, is poised to revolutionize industries and processes across disciplines. In particular, government agencies and companies are looking for ways to leverage blockchain’s efficiencies to facilitate safe record-keeping. Municipalities are employing blockchain-issued deeds to accurately record property ownership. Progressive legal professionals are employing blockchainissued “smart-contracts” to more accurately record contract terms. Intellectual property attorneys and related government agencies are researching blockchain-issued copyrights and patents. This Note examines how utilizing blockchain technology in securities trading to maintain accurate stockholder ledgers will allow for current market forces to be reflected in stockholder voting. Further, this Note seeks to address how blockchain-issued shares of stock could affect stockholder approved mergers and the exercise of appraisal rights. This Note posits that accurate stockholder ledgers will lead to an increase in stockholder approved mergers, but will not have an effect on the exercise of appraisal rights.
It has been ten years since Satoshi Nakamoto created bitcoin and introduced the concept of a blockchain. The original goal was to propose a solution to the double-spending problem using a peer-to-peer network. Now, Blockchain proves to have the capacity to deliver a new kind of trust to a wide range of services. Applications are being explored in healthcare (patient records), government (land registries) and electronics (Internet of Things). The supply chain is one of the fields that Blockchain is expected to be applied. The paper aims to combine blockchain with distributed storage and propose blockchain for the supply chain. Blockchain is not fit to record a lot of information. It requires both on-chain storage of the core ledger data and off-chain storage of data required by smart contracts for verification and documentation. The Inter Planetary File System (IPFS) is a concrete solution. IPFS is a peer-to-peer distributed file system that seeks to connect all computing devices with the same system of files. Participants can address large amounts of data with IPFS and place the immutable, permanent IPFS links into a blockchain transaction. This timestamps and secures their content, without having to put the data itself on the chain. By combining blockchain with distributed storage, the supply chain system is fit to the industry of the next generation. The characteristics of Industry 4.0 meets the blockchain-based system and the model can aid these changes.