Marek Zatwarnicki, Krzysztof Zatwarnicki, Piotr Stolarski
In 2020 and 2021, the cryptocurrency market attracted millions of new traders and investors. Lack of regulation, high liquidity, and modern exchanges significantly lowered the entry threshold for new market participants. In 2021, over 5 million Americans were regularly involved in cryptocurrency trading. At that time, the interest in market indicators and trading strategies remained low, leading to the conclusion that most investors did not use decision-support indicators. The correct and backtested use of technical analysis signals can give the trader a significant advantage over most market participants. This work introduces an algorithmic approach to examining the effectiveness of the signals generated by one of the most popular market indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI). A model corresponding to an actual cryptocurrency exchange was used to backtest the strategies. The results show that the RSI as a momentum indicator in the cryptocurrency market involves high risk. Using alternative RSI applications can allow traders to gain an advantage in the cryptocurrency market. Comparing the results with the traditional buy and hold strategy shows the credible potential of the indicated method and the usage of signals generated by the technical analysis indicators.
By now, cryptocurrencies have almost become a part of the modern financial asset space, but the cryptocurrency market itself is not homogeneous, and individual cryptocurrencies can differ significantly in their properties and functions. For example, the cryptocurrency Ether is second in capitalization after Bitcoin, but the Ethereum and Bitcoin blockchains differ significantly in their properties and functions. In particular, Ethereum is the most popular digital platform for creating decentralized applications (dApps). The purpose of this work is to try to answer the question "Does the market take into account the features of the Ethereum blockchain in the price dynamics of the Ether cryptocurrency?" This question is also directly related to the search for potential fundamental factors that can explain the price dynamics of Ether. The main econometric method used in the study is generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. Having evaluated about 15 thousand different specifications of GARCH models, where various Ethereum blockchain usage metrics were used as explanatory variables, we obtained the results that Ethereum network usage metrics do not significantly correlate with Ether cryptocurrency returns. Moreover, these metrics are also unable to explain the relative strengthening/weakening of Ether relative to Bitcoin. Thus, we conclude that despite the presence of a number of special functional properties of the Ethereum blockchain, the price dynamics of the Ether cryptocurrency does not reflect them.
Yang Wan, Yuncheng Song, Xinqian Zhang, Zhichao Yin
We explore the dynamics and determinants of volatility connectedness between cryptocurrencies and energy. We employed a block dynamic equicorrelation model and a group volatility connectedness measurement to measure the cross-equicorrelation and volatility connectedness between cryptocurrencies and energy. We also adopted dynamic model averaging to identify the time-varying drivers. The results suggest that changes in cross-equicorrelation between the two groups were affected by influential global events and increased after the COVID-19 pandemic. Volatilities were transmitted in both directions between cryptocurrencies and energy, but the transmission from energy to cryptocurrencies is by far the strongest. The driver identification implies that the factors related to cryptocurrencies and global financial markets had important roles in explaining the volatility connectedness from cryptocurrencies to energy in some periods after the COVID-19 pandemic, but the effects were marginal. In contrast, factors such as electricity consumption, cryptocurrency turnovers, and VIX were important in affecting the volatility connectedness from energy to cryptocurrencies, and the effects depended on factors and changed over time.
This paper introduces a unique perspective towards Bitcoin safe haven and hedge properties through the Bitcoin halving cycle. The Bitcoin halving cycle suggests that Bitcoin price movement follows specific sequences, and Bitcoin price movement is independent of other assets. This has significant implications for Bitcoin properties, encompassing its risk profile, volatility dynamics, safe haven properties, and hedge properties. Bitcoinâs institutional and industrial adoption gained traction in 2021, while recent studies suggest that gold lost its safe haven properties against the S&P500 in 2021 amid signs of funds flowing out of gold into Bitcoin. Amid multiple forces at play (COVID-19, halving cycle, institutional adoption), the potential existence of regime changes should be considered when examining volatility dynamics. Therefore, the objective of this study is twofold. The first objective is to examine gold and Bitcoin safe haven and hedge properties against three US stock indices before and after the stock market selloff in March 2020. The second objective is to examine the potential regime changes and the symmetric properties of the Bitcoin volatility profile during the halving cycle. The Markov Switching GARCH model was used in this study to elucidate regime changes in the GARCH volatility dynamics of Bitcoin and its halving cycle. Results show that gold did not exhibit safe haven and hedge properties against three US stock indices after the COVID-19 outbreak, while Bitcoin did not exhibit safe haven or hedge properties against the US stock market indices before or after the COVID-19 pandemic market crash. Furthermore, this study also found that the regime changes are associated with low and high volatility periods rather than specific stages of a Bitcoin halving cycle and are asymmetric. Bitcoin may yet exhibit safe haven and hedge properties as, at the time of writing, these properties may manifest through sustained adoption growth.
Juan Piñeiro Chousa, Aleksandar Ć eviÄ, Isaac GonzĂĄlez-LĂłpez
In our study, we have evaluated the impact of tweets, social indicators, uncertainty, and attention indices on the selected variables calculated from a pool of 51 decentralised finance entities. In so doing, we have identified some evidence that returns are impacted by tweets, but not by social indicators that appear to be more relevant for volatility. We have further confirmed that the S&P500 Index negatively influences cryptocurrency returns, which means that these two asset classes are substitutes. Uncertainty and attention indices are relevant in determining returns and the alternative measurement of volatility. However, they remain insignificant for illiquidity and our initial volatility choice.
We investigate the multifractal properties of daily price returns and trading volume variations in 35 cryptocurrencies by using the method of wavelet leaders prior and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The obtained results from the analysis of scaling exponent functions and multifractal spectrums show that, in general, price returns and trading volume variations exhibit multifractal properties prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and that they tend to exhibit monofractal behavior during the pandemic. As a result, the level of multifractality diminished during the COVID-19 for both price returns and trading volume variations. Since complexity in price returns and trading volume variations decreased during the pandemic, cryptocurrencies may offer an interesting investment during times of serious world economic downturns.
This study estimates the effects of the dual long memory property and structural breaks on the persistence level of six major cryptocurrency markets. We apply the Bai and Perron structural break test, InclĂĄn and Tiaoâs iterated cumulative sum of squares (ICSS) algorithm, and the fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (FIGARCH) model, with different distributions. The results show that long memory and structural breaks characterize the conditional volatility of cryptocurrency markets, confirming our hypothesis that ignoring structural breaks leads to an underestimation of the persistence of volatility modeling. The ARFIMA-FIGARCH model, with structural breaks and a skewed Student-t distribution, fits the cryptocurrency marketâs price dynamics well.
In this paper we develop a linear expectile hidden Markov model for the analysis of cryptocurrency time series in a risk management framework. The methodology proposed allows to focus on extreme returns and describe their temporal evolution by introducing in the model time-dependent coefficients evolving according to a latent discrete homogeneous Markov chain. As it is often used in the expectile literature, estimation of the model parameters is based on the asymmetric normal distribution. Maximum likelihood estimates are obtained via an Expectation-Maximization algorithm using efficient M-step update formulas for all parameters. We evaluate the introduced method with both artificial data under several experimental settings and real data investigating the relationship between daily Bitcoin returns and major world market indices.
Pavlos I. Zitis, Shinji Kakinaka, Ken Umeno, M. P. Hanias · 6 authors
This article investigates the dynamical complexity and fractal characteristics changes of the Bitcoin/US dollar (BTC/USD) and Euro/US dollar (EUR/USD) returns in the period before and after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. More specifically, we applied the asymmetric multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (A-MF-DFA) method to investigate the temporal evolution of the asymmetric multifractal spectrum parameters. In addition, we examined the temporal evolution of Fuzzy entropy, non-extensive Tsallis entropy, Shannon entropy, and Fisher information. Our research was motivated to contribute to the comprehension of the pandemic's impact and the possible changes it caused in two currencies that play a key role in the modern financial system. Our results revealed that for the overall trend both before and after the outbreak of the pandemic, the BTC/USD returns exhibited persistent behavior while the EUR/USD returns exhibited anti-persistent behavior. Additionally, after the outbreak of COVID-19, there was an increase in the degree of multifractality, a dominance of large fluctuations, as well as a sharp decrease of the complexity (i.e., increase of the order and information content and decrease of randomness) of both BTC/USD and EUR/USD returns. The World Health Organization (WHO) announcement, in which COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic, appears to have had a significant impact on the sudden change in complexity. Our findings can help both investors and risk managers, as well as policymakers, to formulate a comprehensive response to the occurrence of such external events.
Rapidly increasing cryptocurrency prices have encouraged cryptocurrency miners to participate in cryptocurrency production, increasing network hashrates and electricity consumption. Growth in network hashrates has further crowded out small cryptocurrency investors owing to the heightened costs of mining hardware and electricity. These changes prompt cryptocurrency miners to become new investors, leading to cryptocurrency price increases. The potential bidirectional relationship between cryptocurrency price and electricity consumption remains unidentified. Hence, this research thus utilizes July 31 2015-July 12 2019 data from 13 cryptocurrencies to investigate the short- and long-run causal effects between cryptocurrency transaction and electricity consumption. Particularly, we consider structural breaks induced by external shocks through stationary analysis and comovement relationships. Over the examined time period, we found that the series of cryptocurrency transaction and electricity consumption gradually returns to mean convergence after undergoing daily shocks, with prices trending together with hashrates. Transaction fluctuations exert both a temporary effect and permanent influence on electricity consumption. Therefore, owing to the computational power deployed to wherever high profit is found, transactions are vital determinants of electricity consumption.
Ashikur Rahaman, Abu Kowshir Bitto, Khalid Been Md. Badruzzaman Biplob, Md. Hasan Imam Bijoy · 6 authors
As opposed to other fiat currencies, bitcoin has no relationship with banks. Its price fluctuation is largely influenced by fresh blocks, news, mining information, support or resistance levels, and public opinion. Therefore, a machine-learning model will be fantastic if it learns from data and tells or indicates if we need to purchase or sell for a little period. In this study, we attempted to create a tool or indicator that can gather tweets in real-time using tweepy and the Twitter application programming interface (API) and report the sentiment at the time. Using the renowned Python module "FBProphet," we developed a model in the second phase that can gather historical price data for the bitcoin to US dollar (BTCUSD) pair and project the price of bitcoin. In order to provide guidance for an intelligent forex trader, we finally merged all of the models into one form. We traded with various models for a very little number of days to validate our bitcoin trading indicator (BTI), and we discovered that the combined version of this tool is more profitable. With the combined version of the instrument, we quickly and with little error root mean square error (RMSE: 1,480.58) generated a profit of $1,000.71 USD.
Adel Benhamed, Ahlem Selma Messai, Ghassen El Montasser
Since Bitcoin has frequently witnessed price fluctuations and high volatility, the factors influencing its returns and volatility is an important research subject. To accomplish this goal, we applied the Gets reduction method which has a good reputation compared to other competing approaches in terms of the statistical apparatus available for a repeated search to determine the final set of determinants and the consideration of location shifts. We found that the reduced set of explanatory variables that affects Bitcoin returns is composed of Twitter-based economic uncertainty, gold return, the return of the Euro/USD exchange rate, the return of the US Nasdaq stock exchange index, market capitalization, and Bitcoin mining difficulty. In contrast, the volatility of Bitcoin is affected by only lagged terms of the ARCH effect and the volume of this cryptocurrency.
In this paper, we investigate the co-dependence and portfolio value-at-risk of cryptocurrencies, with the Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple price series from January 2016 to December 2021, covering the crypto crash and pandemic period, using the generalized autoregressive score (GAS) model. We find evidence of strong dependence among the virtual currencies with a dynamic structure. The empirical analysis shows that the GAS model smoothly handles volatility and correlation changes, especially during more volatile periods in the markets. We perform a comprehensive comparison of out-of-sample probabilistic forecasts for a range of financial assets and backtests and the GAS model outperforms the classic DCC (dynamic conditional correlation) GARCH model and provides new insights into multivariate risk measures.
Abstract This study investigates the connectedness between Bitcoin and fiat currencies in two groups of countries: the developed G7 and the emerging BRICS. The methodology adopts the regular (R)-vine copula and compares it with two benchmark models: the multivariate t copula and the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) GARCH model. Moreover, this study examines whether the Bitcoin meltdown of 2013, selloff of 2018, COVID-19 pandemic, 2021 crash, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict impact the linkage with conventional currencies. The results indicate that for both currency baskets, R-vine beats the benchmark models. Hence, the dependence is better modeled by providing sufficient information on the shock transmission path. Furthermore, the cross-market linkage slightly increases during the Bitcoin crashes, and reaches significant levels during the 2021 and 2022 crises, which may indicate the end of market isolation of the virtual currency.
Abstract Mean-variance portfolio optimization models are sensitive to uncertainty in risk-return estimates, which may result in poor out-of-sample performance. In particular, the estimates may suffer when the number of assets considered is high and the length of the return time series is not sufficiently long. This is precisely the case in the cryptocurrency market, where there are hundreds of crypto assets that have been traded for a few years. We propose enhancing the mean-variance (MV) model with a pre-selection stage that uses a prototype-based clustering algorithm to reduce the number of crypto assets considered at each investment period. In the pre-selection stage, we run a prototype-based clustering algorithm where the assets are described by variables representing the profit-risk duality. The prototypes of the clustering partition are automatically examined and the one that best suits our risk-aversion preference is selected. We then run the MV portfolio optimization with the crypto assets of the selected cluster. The proposed approach is tested for a period of 17 months in the whole cryptocurrency market and two selections of the cryptocurrencies with the higher market capitalization (175 and 250 cryptos). We compare the results against three methods applied to the whole market: classic MV, risk parity, and hierarchical risk parity methods. We also compare our results with those from investing in the market index . The simulation results generally favor our proposal in terms of profit and risk-profit financial indicators. This result reaffirms the convenience of using machine learning methods to guide financial investments in complex and highly-volatile environments such as the cryptocurrency market.
Shiv Sondhi, Sherif Saad, Kevin Shi, Mohammad Abdullah Al Mamun · 5 authors
Blockchain and distributed ledger technologies rely on distributed consensus algorithms. In recent years many consensus algorithms and protocols have been proposed; most of them are for permissioned blockchain networks. However, the performance of these algorithms is not well understood. This paper introduces an approach to evaluating consensus algorithms and blockchain platforms in a hostile network environment with the presence of byzantine and other network failures. The approach starts by using stochastic modeling to model the behaviors of consensus algorithms under different typical and faulty operational scenarios. Next, we implemented a blockchain application using different consensus protocols and tested their performance using chaos engineering techniques. To demonstrate our generic evaluation approach, we analyze the performance of four permissioned blockchain platforms and their consensus protocols. Our results showed that stochastic modeling is an inexpensive and efficient technique for analyzing consensus protocols. But they do not represent the actual performance of the consensus protocols in a production environment. Moreover, an experiment with chaos engineering indicates that if two different blockchain platforms use the same blockchain algorithm or protocol, we should not assume they will have similar performance. Therefore, It is also essential to consider the role of platform architecture and how the protocols are engineered in a given platform.
Although cryptocurrencies are catching the fancy of investors for various benefits such as decentralization, low transaction costs, and inflation hedging, their extreme volatility is sometimes keeping many away. Consequently, modeling and forecasting cryptocurrency market volatility are essential to investorsâ investment decisions and risk management. However, most previous studies have been limited to Bitcoin volatility, disregarding cryptocurrency market performance as a whole. This study estimates realized volatility of cryptocurrency market with a variety of algorithms employing a portfolio-style technique. After comparison, LSTM networks surpass the conventional GARCH-type models; meanwhile, the hybrid GARCH neural network models perform the worst. This study provides an impetus for a significant number of academics interested in the extreme volatility of cryptocurrencies. Additionally, it illustrates that more sophisticated models may not always lead to better predictive performance.
Minhyuk Lee, Younghwan Cho, Seung Eun Ock, Jae Wook Song
This research analyzes asymmetric volatility and multifractality in four representative cryptocurrencies using index-based asymmetric multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. We suggest investigating an idiosyncratic risk premium, which can be obtained by removing the market influence in the cryptocurrency return series. We call the process a capital asset pricing model filter. The analyses on the original return series showed no significant sign of asymmetric volatility. However, the filter revealed a distinct asymmetric volatility, distinguishing the uptrend and downtrend fluctuations. Furthermore, the analyses on the idiosyncratic risk premium detected some cases of asymmetry in the degree and source of multifractality, whereas that on the original return series failed to detect the asymmetry. In conclusion, in a highly volatile market, the capital asset pricing model filter can improve an investigation of the asymmetric multifractality in cryptocurrencies.
This article examines the asymmetric volatility spillover effects between Bitcoin and alternative coin markets at the disaggregate level. We apply a frequency connectedness approach to the daily data of 11 major cryptocurrencies for the period from 1 September 2017 to 2 March 2022. We try to uncover the existence of the âfear of missing outâ psychological effect and âpump-and-dump schemesâ in the crypto markets. To do that, we estimate the volatility spillovers from Bitcoin to altcoin and the cryptosâ own risk spillovers during bull and bear markets. The spillover results from Bitcoin to altcoin provide mixed results regarding the presence of this theory for major cryptocurrencies. However, the empirical findings carried out by the cryptosâ own spillover effects fully confirm the existence of a fear-of-missing-out effect and pump-and-dump schemes in all cryptocurrencies except for USDT.
Orlando Telles Souza, JoĂŁo VinĂcius de França Carvalho
Purpose This study aims to analyze the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) of cryptocurrencies on multiple platforms by observing whether there is a discrepancy in the levels of efficiency between different exchanges. Additionally, EMH is tested in a multivariate way: whether the prices of the same cryptocurrencies traded on different exchanges are temporally related to each other. ADF and KPSS tests, whereas the vector autoregression model of order p â VAR(p) â for multivariate system. Findings Both Bitcoin and Ethereum show efficiency in the weak form on the main platforms in each market alone. However, when estimating a VAR(p) between prices among exchanges, there was evidence of Granger causality between cryptocurrencies in all exchanges, suggesting that EMH is not adequate due to cross information. Practical implications It is essential to assess the cryptocurrency market in a multivariate way, not only to favor its maturation process, but also to promote a broad understanding of its inherent risks. Thus, it will be possible to develop financial products that are actively managed in a more sophisticated cryptocurrency market. Social implications There is a possibility of performing arbitrage on different exchanges and market assets through cross-exchanges. Thus, emphasizing the need for regulation of exchanges in the digital asset market, as an eventual price manipulation on a single platform can impact others, which generates various distortions. Originality/value This study is the first to find evidence of cross-information for the same (and other) cryptocurrencies among different exchanges.
The objective is to study how bitcoin should be used in dollarized economies and how bitcoin is distributed to people according to their life deeds. The bitcoin contradicts all the Keynesian Economic Theory whereas bitcoin increases, its prices increase too, and this is different from the normal theory. How and why bitcoin has been built and the new universal technological techniques behind bitcoin.
Luca Mungo, Silvia Bartolucci, Laura Alessandretti
Abstract Since the introduction of Bitcoin in 2009, the dramatic and unsteady evolution of the cryptocurrency market has also been driven by large investments by traditional and cryptocurrency-focused hedge funds. Notwithstanding their critical role, our understanding of the relationship between institutional investments and the evolution of the cryptocurrency market has remained limited, also due to the lack of comprehensive data describing investments over time. In this study, we present a quantitative study of cryptocurrency institutional investments based on a dataset collected for 1324 currencies in the period between 2014 and 2022 from Crunchbase, one of the largest platforms gathering business information. We show that the evolution of the cryptocurrency market capitalization is highly correlated with the size of institutional investments, thus confirming their important role. Further, we find that the market is dominated by the presence of a group of prominent investors who tend to specialise by focusing on particular technologies. Finally, studying the co-investment network of currencies that share common investors, we show that assets with shared investors tend to be characterized by similar market behaviour. Our work sheds light on the role played by institutional investors and provides a basis for further research on their influence in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
Dora Almeida, Andreia DionĂsio, Isabel Vieira, Paulo Ferreira
Cryptocurrencies are relatively new and innovative financial assets. They are a topic of interest to investors and academics due to their distinctive features. Whether financial or not, extraordinary events are one of the biggest challenges facing financial markets. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, considered by some authors a "black swan", is one of these events. In this study, we assess integration and contagion in the cryptocurrency market in the COVID-19 pandemic context, using two entropy-based measures: mutual information and transfer entropy. Both methodologies reveal that cryptocurrencies exhibit mixed levels of integration before and after the onset of the pandemic. Cryptocurrencies displaying higher integration before the event experienced a decline in such link after the world became aware of the first cases of pneumonia in Wuhan city. In what concerns contagion, mutual information provided evidence of its presence solely for the Huobi Token, and the transfer entropy analysis pointed out Tether and Huobi Token as its main source. As both analyses indicate no contagion from the pandemic turmoil to these financial assets, cryptocurrencies may be good investment options in case of real global shocks, such as the one provoked by the COVID-19 outbreak.