Subrat Kumar Jena, Gayatri Palai, Asst. Prof. Rumana Hasinullah Shaikh
Abstract-The rapid expansion of the global gig economy has fundamentally changed the structure of personal finance management. Unlike salaried professionals who operate within predictable monthly income cycles, freelancers and independent contractors face highly volatile cashflow patterns characterized by delayed client payments, irregular project pipelines, seasonal fluctuations, and unstable liquidity reserves. Traditional Personal Financial Management (PFM) systems primarily focus on historical transaction tracking and static budgeting, making them ineffective for proactive financial survival planning in modern freelance ecosystems. This project introduces Prophet AI v1.1, an AI-driven financial intelligence platform engineered specifically to simulate, forecast, and analyze unstable freelance cashflow environments using distributed cloud infrastructure, cryptographic verification, and real-time neural intelligence. The proposed system functions as a Financial Flight Simulator that allows freelancers to model financial risk before it becomes catastrophic in real life. The platform combines machine learning-based forecasting, stochastic risk simulation, cryptographic integrity validation, asynchronous AI orchestration, and multilingual neural voice synthesis within a single integrated ecosystem. The system architecture follows a distributed deployment model consisting of a Next.js 14 frontend hosted on Vercel, a FastAPI Intelligence Gateway hosted on Render, and a Supabase PostgreSQL secure transaction vault. This decoupled architecture ensures scalability, modularity, low frontend latency, and reliable handling of long-running AI inference tasks. The financial forecasting engine utilizes a hybrid intelligence pipeline combining statistical forecasting principles and ensemble-based analytical logic. The platform generates 30-day rolling liquidity forecasts, safe spending corridors, and stress-based runway simulations that help users evaluate financial survival scenarios under varying burn conditions. Unlike conventional financial dashboards, Prophet AI introduces dynamic What-If simulation controls, allowing users to manipulate variables such as liquidity lag, expense escalation, and delayed client payments in real time. To establish institutional-grade trust and forensic-grade auditability, the system implements an Integrity Shield powered by the SHA-256 cryptographic hashing algorithm. Every transaction entered into the system generates a unique digital fingerprint using transaction attributes including amount, date, category, and user identification. This verification mechanism ensures that tampered or manipulated financial records cannot enter the intelligence pipeline, thereby maintaining a Verified Ledger architecture. The project additionally documents real-world deployment challenges involving decimal precision mismatches between JavaScript and Python environments and explains the implementation of strategic normalization bypass mechanisms for stable production deployment. The intelligence layer of Prophet AI is powered using Llama 3.3-70B via Groq infrastructure, enabling high-speed financial reasoning and structured JSON-based strategy generation. The platform utilizes a carefully engineered Ruthless Financial Strategist system prompt designed to deliver direct, survival-oriented financial recommendations rather than emotionally comforting advice. This design philosophy reflects the real-world operational needs of freelancers who require accurate liquidity warnings and actionable strategic insights during financial instability. The generated intelligence is converted into multilingual audio briefings using the edge-tts neural voice synthesis engine, supporting both English and Hindi voice outputs. To avoid cloud timeout failures and synchronous processing bottlenecks, the platform implements an asynchronous polling architecture using UUID-based job orchestration. The frontend submits a /briefing request and continuously polls a /briefing-status/{job_id} endpoint until the AI-generated strategy and MP3 briefing become available. This architecture enables the system to safely execute computationally expensive large language model inference and neural voice generation workflows even on limited-resource cloud infrastructure. The completed system demonstrates the practical integration of distributed AI infrastructure, cryptographic verification, asynchronous backend engineering, financial forecasting, and multimodal intelligence synthesis within a real-world production environment. Prophet AI v1.1 represents a transition from passive financial recordkeeping to proactive survival-oriented financial intelligence. The project establishes a scalable blueprint for next-generation AI-powered fintech systems capable of delivering real-time strategic decision support for the rapidly growing global freelance economy.Keywords-Freelance finance; cashflow forecasting; stochastic simulation
Abstract : This article investigates the efficacy of implementing an AI-powered automated trading system on the blockchain using advanced machine learning algorithms and smart contract technology. The work addresses the challenges of cryptocurrency market volatility, the need for real-time decision making and the limitations of traditional trading approaches that often result in suboptimal returns and exposure to increased risk. This work develops a comprehensive trading platform that combines Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, Q-Learning reinforcement learning algorithms and blockchain-based smart contracts to create an autonomous, intelligent trading system. The methodology follows a multi-layered approach that integrates real-time market data collection from CoinGecko and Snowtrace APIs, advanced AI model training using TensorFlow.js, and smart contract deployment on the Avalanche C-Chain using Hardhat and OpenZeppelin libraries. LSTM model is used for price prediction and Q-Learning agent is used for trading strategy optimization, while comprehensive risk management is implemented using Value at Risk (VaR) calculations, portfolio rebalancing algorithms and automated stop-loss mechanisms. The trading execution is facilitated through direct integration with Pangolin DEX smart contracts to ensure decentralized and trustless trade execution. The performance of the system is evaluated using a sophisticated backtesting engine with Monte Carlo simulations, comparing the AI-driven strategy against traditional buy-and-hold approaches. The performance metrics used were Sharpe ratio, maximum drawdown, win rate, and total return. The AI-powered token prediction system demonstrates a superior performance due to its ability to process complex, non-linear market patterns and adapt to changing market conditions through reinforcement learning, and execute trades with minimal latency through blockchain integration. The findings are expected to provide cryptocurrency traders and institutional investors with a robust and automated trading solution that leverages the benefits of both artificial intelligence and blockchain technology for improved investment outcomes and risk management.
Maximal Extractable Value (MEV) in decentralized finance (DeFi) enables searchers to profit from transaction ordering and arbitrage opportunities across Automated Market Makers (AMMs). Among MEV strategies, atomic triangular arbitrage is widely deployed due to its deterministic execution within a single transaction. However, executing profitable arbitrage under realistic constraints, such as limited wallet balance, pool liquidity, gas costs, and blockchain latency, remains a challenging optimization problem. In this work, we formulate atomic triangular arbitrage as a constrained optimization problem that jointly selects an ordered three-pool path and trade amount to maximize net profit. To solve this non-convex problem, we propose a Deep Reinforcement Learning approach based on Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO). Experimental results show that while exhaustive grid search attains the highest returns, it requires a significantly high amount of inference time, making it infeasible for on-chain execution. In contrast, the proposed PPO agent achieves millisecond-level inference latency while generating consistent positive profit. These findings highlight a fundamental speedâprofit trade-off in MEV extraction and demonstrate that PPO provides an effective and practical solution for atomic triangular arbitrage in DeFi.
This study investigates the predictive performance of decomposition-based deep learning models through a focused case study on Ethereum price forecasting. Using hourly Ethereum price data from 5 September 2020 to 13 July 2025, we develop hybrid forecasting frameworks that integrate three signal decomposition techniquesâWavelet Decomposition (WD), Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD)âwith a Long Short-Term Memory network enhanced by an attention mechanism (LSTMâAttention). The decomposition methods are first applied to extract multiple frequency components from the original time series, allowing the forecasting model to capture both short-term fluctuations and long-term dynamics inherent in this specific digital asset. Each decomposed component is then modeled using the LSTMâAttention architecture, and the forecasts are aggregated to produce the final prediction. The predictive performance of the proposed models is evaluated using MAE, MSE, RMSE, and MAPE, and the results are compared with benchmark models including ARIMA-GARCH and standard LSTMâAttention. Forecast accuracy is assessed through out-of-sample one-step-ahead predictions, and robustness is ensured by averaging results across 10 independent runs. The empirical results demonstrate that incorporating decomposition techniques substantially improves forecasting accuracy. Among the tested models, the EMDâLSTMâAttention framework achieves the best performance, producing the lowest forecasting errors. While focused on the Ethereum market, these findings highlight the effectiveness of combining signal decomposition and attention-based deep learning architectures to enhance predictive performance in high-volatility cryptocurrency environments.
This Present Study Topic is âThe Influence of Data Structures on Optimal Algorithm Design and Performance in Fintechâ The efficient data structures play a critical role in improving algorithm design, computational speed, scalability, and memory optimisation within fintech systems. Recent fintech studies emphasise that modern financial platforms process massive real-time transactional data, requiring optimised algorithms supported by advanced data structures such as trees, graphs, hash tables, heaps, and distributed ledgers. Financial Technology applications, including digital banking, fraud detection, blockchain, algorithmic trading, and risk management, rely heavily on these computational techniques to maintain performance and security. Artificial Intelligence and reinforcement learning demonstrated that optimal algorithm design supports decision-making, portfolio optimisation, fraud detection, and automated trading systems. Researchers concluded that the integration of suitable data structures with intelligent algorithms improves prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, and operational scalability in fintech applications. These technologies are becoming increasingly important in modern digital financial ecosystems driven by big data and real-time analytics.
Daniel GonzĂĄlez CortĂŠs, Monomita Nandy, Suman Lodh
Abstract This research analyzes the performance and interconnectedness of major global stock market indices and decentralized finance assets, specifically cryptocurrencies, over the period from 2015 to 2025. The study includes indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite from the United States, the FTSE 100, DAX, and CAC 40 from Europe, and the Nikkei 225 from Japan, and two more indices from China and India representing different economic regions. Additionally, Bitcoin and Ethereum are included to assess the impact of decentralized finance on traditional financial indices and asset allocation strategies. By employing Artificial Intelligence algorithms like ConvLSTM, the research measures the dynamic asset allocation and volatility management through an interconnected spillover matrix. The findings reveal that integrating ConvLSTM enhances the understanding of the interconnectedness between cryptocurrencies and traditional assets, offering improved diversification opportunities due to their low correlation, decentralization, and inflation-hedge characteristics. The studyâs results suggest that investors can make more informed decisions regarding dynamic asset allocation in high-volatility portfolios, providing indicators of rising systemic risk and market stress.
Sovereign AI-Native Multi-Asset Trading, Execution, and Financial nfrastructure Charter Sovereign AIâNative Financial Execution Infrastructure PARRALAXâAIHFTFUND is a multiâasset, AIânative financial organism engineered to operate across traditional and blockchainâbased markets. It provides a unified execution layer where autonomous agents can observe markets, interpret structure, execute trades, manage risk, govern portfolios, issue digital assets, coordinate token economies, and maintain verifiable proofâofâcomputation. This repository contains the core infrastructure, protocol stack, and governance architecture for building sovereign, agentâdriven financial systems. Mission To build a sovereign AIânative financial infrastructure capable of coordinating autonomous trading agents, multiâasset execution, fund governance, risk control, digitalâasset creation, and market intelligence across both traditional and blockchainânative markets. The system exists to move beyond bots, dashboards, and scripts. Its purpose is to become a real execution organism for financial markets. Vision PARRALAXâAIHFTFUND aims to create a longâhorizon financial intelligence layer where AI agents can: Observe and interpret global market structure Execute trades across heterogeneous venues Manage risk and exposure Govern portfolios and internal policy Issue and manage digital assets Coordinate internal token economies Maintain proofâofâcomputation and decision lineage Operate across crypto, fiat, equities, FX, derivatives, AI tokens, NFTs, and future asset classes Build market memory over time The system is designed to evolve as markets evolve. Foundational Premise Modern markets are: Machineâdriven Fragmented Multiâasset Tokenized Agentâmediated A serious financial infrastructure must therefore operate across: Traditional finance (equities, FX, derivatives, funds) Decentralized finance (DEXs, AMMs, onâchain liquidity) Tokenized and synthetic assets AIânative markets Autonomous agent economies Highâspeed execution environments Governanceâcontrolled fund structures Programmable financial instruments PARRALAXâAIHFTFUND is built to bridge oldâworld and newâworld markets. What PARRALAXâAIHFTFUND Is A sovereign trading infrastructure framework An AIânative market execution system A multiâasset financial operating layer A protocol stack for autonomous trading agents A fund governance and charter framework A digitalâasset issuance and management environment A blockchainâcompatible coordination layer A riskâaware execution engine A computeâreceipt and proofâtrace system A foundation for future AIâmanaged financial organisms It is built for real execution, not passive analysis. What PARRALAXâAIHFTFUND Is Not Not a research repo Not a toy trading bot Not a simulation Not a dashboard Not a signal script collection Not a crypto hype project Not a singleâasset system Not a predictionâonly model Research supports the system. Research does not define the system. Status Active development. Core modules stabilizing. Execution layer expanding. Governance and digitalâasset subsystems in progress. PARRALAXâAIHFTFUND is an AIânative financial execution framework designed to coordinate autonomous agents across traditional and blockchainâbased markets. The system provides a unified operating layer for multiâasset execution, risk management, fund governance, digitalâasset issuance, and verifiable computeâtraceability. System Mission To construct a sovereign financial intelligence layer capable of continuous operation across heterogeneous markets, enabling agents to observe market conditions, interpret structure, execute trades, manage exposure, and maintain internal governance. Operational Scope The system is engineered to function across: Traditional finance (equities, FX, derivatives, funds) Decentralized finance (DEXs, AMMs, onâchain liquidity) Tokenized and synthetic assets AIânative markets and agent economies Governanceâcontrolled fund structures Highâspeed execution environments Programmable financial instruments System Definition PARRALAXâAIHFTFUND comprises: A sovereign trading and execution infrastructure A multiâasset financial operating layer A protocol stack for autonomous trading agents A governance and charter framework A digitalâasset issuance and management environment A blockchainâcompatible coordination layer A riskâaware execution engine with compute receipts NonâScope The system is not a researchâonly repository, simulation toy, dashboard, signal script collection, or predictionâonly model. It is infrastructureâfirst and executionâoriented.
Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) integrated with decentralized finance (DeFi) represent a transformative development in digital financial systems. However, there is a lack of systematic frameworks for prioritizing the determinants of effectiveness and sustainability in DeFi-integrated CBDC platform investments. This study develops an integrated multicriteria decision-making framework to identify critical evaluation criteria and rank alternative platform architectures under uncertainty. The proposed model combines objective expert weighting, interaction-sensitive criteria evaluation, and fuzzy-based alternative ranking within a unified analytical structure. The results indicate that technological infrastructure (0.168) and liquidity (0.167) are the most influential criteria, while hybrid and privacy-focused platforms emerge as the most suitable investment alternatives. These findings highlight the importance of balancing technological robustness, liquidity depth, and privacy considerations in CBDC design. The study contributes by offering a structured and uncertainty-sensitive decision framework to support strategic platform selection and policy formulation in evolving digital currency ecosystems.
Modern company activities depend greatly on inventory management, which covers demand forecasting and inventory optimization to guarantee operational effectiveness and customer happiness. This paper presents a new method fusing blockchain technology with cutting-edge deep learning to overcome these restrictions for better inventory management. Initially, the data are preprocessed using Zminâmax normalization (ZMM), and then feature extraction follows. To extract the spatiotemporal features and capture long-term temporal dependencies in demand data, a hybrid deep learning architecture is presented, built on a Deep Convolutional Koopman Network (CKN) integrated with a Coordinate Attention-Based Gated Recurrent Unit (CKN-CGRU).Genetic Secretary Bird Optimization (GSBO) is used to further tune the model automatically. While the CKN captures complex spatial temporal correlations, the GRU effectively models sequential dependencies. Blockchain architecture with smart contracts and improved Proof-of-Stake consensus is integrated to guarantee data integrity and transparency in stock transactions. This makes it possible to securely, automatically, and in a tamper-proof way record inventory projections, orders, and stock updates. The suggested system improves the stakeholder trust in decentralized inventory management by ensuring complete traceability and real-time auditability throughout the process. Experimental outcomes show the efficiency of the proposed model strategy, with an accuracy of 99.94% and precision of 99.93%.
This paper develops a deep reinforcement learning framework for cryptocurrency portfolio management in which transaction costs are derived from the Riemannian geometry of the underlying volatility model rather than assumed constant. A Proximal Policy Optimisation agent is trained on a reward function grounded in non-equilibrium thermodynamics: we use the free-energy Bellman equation, in which transaction costs are the geodesic slippage on the Fisher information manifold of a maximum-entropy Markov-switching GARCH model, and regime-transition costs are the Wasserstein-2 distance between the calm and turbulent return distributions. A thermodynamic Carnot bound on portfolio efficiency is established and empirically validated. Five hypotheses are tested across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash over January 2017 to March 2026. The geometric-cost agent achieves statistically superior Sharpe ratios relative to flat-fee baselines on four of five assets; portfolio turnover is reduced by 56 to 83 percent relative to signal-following; the thermodynamic friction point at which the agent prefers no-trade is asset-specific and ordered by turbulent half-life; a joint topological and geometric circuit breaker reduces Maximum Drawdown by 28 to 38 percent; and ablation confirms that every component of the observation vector contributes a statistically significant performance gain. The framework requires liquid cryptocurrency markets with validated parametric volatility models; transferability to other asset classes requires upstream recalibration.
Piotr Fiszeder, Witold Orzeszko, RadosĹaw Pietrzyk
Abstract This study investigates the use of ChatGPT as an automated tool for extracting and labeling Bitcoin-related news sentiment and examines how the resulting sentiment indicators affect Bitcoin returns and volatility. A large dataset of news headlines is processed via an API-based workflow, and the ChatGPT-derived sentiment indicators are subsequently incorporated as explanatory variables into selected statistical and machine learning models, including autoregressive (AR), heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR), Bayesian model averaging (BMA), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and support vector regression (SVR). We find that while the sentiment indicators significantly improve in-sample estimation accuracy for returns and volatility, they do not lead to statistically significant gains in out-of-sample forecasting performance. This result suggests that ChatGPT-based sentiment measures primarily capture contemporaneous market-relevant information rather than persistent predictive signals, consistent with semi-strong market efficiency.
Predictive analysis has become an essential component in modern financial research and practice, driven by the rapid advancement of data analytics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence. This study aims to systematically map the intellectual structure, research trends, and key contributions in the field of predictive analysis in finance through a bibliometric approach. Data were collected from the Scopus database covering publications from 2000 to 2026 and analyzed using VOSviewer to examine co-authorship networks, citation patterns, and keyword co-occurrence. The results reveal a significant growth in research output, particularly in recent years, reflecting the increasing importance of data-driven decision-making in finance. Co-authorship analysis indicates the presence of collaborative research clusters, although the field remains partially fragmented. Citation analysis highlights that the most influential studies are those integrating advanced computational methods with practical financial applications, such as credit scoring, bankruptcy prediction, and stock market forecasting. Furthermore, keyword analysis demonstrates a clear shift from traditional statistical techniques toward machine learning, artificial intelligence, and emerging technologies such as blockchain and decentralized finance. This study contributes by providing a comprehensive overview of the evolution and current state of predictive analysis in finance, identifying key research themes and gaps. The findings suggest that future research should focus on enhancing model interpretability, integrating sustainability considerations, and expanding applications in real-time financial decision-making. Overall, this study serves as a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners seeking to understand the trajectory and future direction of predictive analytics in the financial domain.
The distributional specification in Markov-switching GARCH models has historically been driven by empirical convention rather than statistical theory. This paper derives the two-regime MS-GARCH specification from the Maximum Entropy Principle, providing an information-theoretic motivation for Student-t regime-conditional innovations in cryptocurrency volatility modelling. The framework is applied to five major cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash, over the period January 2017 to March 2026, comprising 15,834 daily observations spanning six complete market cycles. Three principal findings emerge. First, a Calm-Phase Fragility pattern is identified: four of five assets exhibit calm-regime half-lives below one trading day (0.48 to 1.16 days), with turbulence the dominant long-run state (stationary turbulent probability in [0.451, 0.771] across all assets), establishing turbulence rather than calm as the structural baseline of the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Second, the Maximum Entropy derivation yields endogenous Student-t degrees of freedom, with heavy-tailed turbulent innovations (degrees of freedom approximately 4.5) confirmed across all assets, validating the MaxEnt constraint framework empirically. Third, near-unity turbulent GARCH persistence drives MS-GARCH point forecasts toward the persistence ceiling, consistent with an information-theoretic bound on predictability when the calm half-life collapses below one trading day; HAR-RV achieves the lowest QLIKE loss for three of five assets under these near-critical conditions. Cross-asset consistency is confirmed across seven statistical indicators including Hill tail exponents in [2.31, 3.26], Hurst exponents in [0.543, 0.577], and Wald tests rejecting parameter homogeneity at p < 0.001 for all assets. The framework is formalised as a deployable expert system for real-time regime monitoring and risk management.
This study rigorously formulates the complex fund-scheduling problem as a Markov decision process (MDP). It constructs a state space that integrates real-time and forecast information, an atomic action space that conforms to business logic, and a reward function that balances long-term returns against immediate risk. To address the curse of dimensionality and the credit-assignment problem in coordinated scheduling among multiple fund units, a multi-agent deep deterministic policy gradient (MADDPG) algorithm is adopted. Under a centralized-training and decentralized-execution framework, the algorithm reconciles global optimization with decentralized decision-making. In addition, a difference-reward mechanism and Kalman filtering are used to accurately measure each agent’s individual contribution and reduce the impact of environmental noise on reward signals. The results show that, compared with a static rule engine and a conventional linear programming method, the proposed deep reinforcement learning strategy reduces average daily funding costs by 50.4%, lowers the payment failure rate to 0.002%, and maintains a high liquidity buffer adequacy ratio. The strategy also demonstrates clear advantages in decision timeliness, collaborative handling of complex instructions, and self-adaptation potential, thereby providing an innovative pathway for finance-company fund scheduling to progress from intelligentization to automation.
Automated Market Makers (AMMs), as a core infrastructure of decentralized finance (DeFi), uniquely drive on-chain asset pricing through a deterministic reserve ratio mechanism. Unlike traditional markets, AMM price dynamics is triggered largely by on-chain events (e.g., swap) that change the reserve ratio, rather than by continuous responses to off-chain information. This makes event-level analysis crucial for understanding price formation mechanisms in AMMs. However, existing research generally neglects the micro-structural dynamics at the AMMs level, lacking both a comprehensive dataset covering multiple protocols with fine-grained event classification and an effective framework for event-aware modeling. To fill this gap, we construct a dataset containing 8.9 million on-chain event records from four representative AMMs protocols: Pendle, Uniswap v3, Aave and Morpho, with precise annotations of transaction type and block height timestamps. Furthermore, we propose an Uncertainty Weighted Mean Squared Error (UWM) loss function, which incorporates the block interval regression term into the traditional Temporal Point Process (TPP) objective function by weighting the uncertainty with homoscedasticity. Extensive experiments on eight advanced TPP architectures across four representative DeFi protocols demonstrate that this loss function reduces the time prediction error by an average of 31.17% while maintaining the accuracy of event (transaction) type prediction, establishing a robust benchmark for event-aware prediction in the AMMs ecosystem. This work provides the necessary data foundation and methodological framework for modeling the discreteness and event-driven characteristics of on-chain price discovery. All datasets and source code are publicly available. https://github.com/finbrain-lab-hkustgz/Deep-AMM-Events
This study examines dynamic interdependencies and risk transmission among major cryptocurrencies and traditional financial assets, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, U.S. equities, and gold, over the period 2017â2024. Particular attention is given to the structural shift associated with the 2024 U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval, which marked a significant milestone in the institutionalization of cryptocurrency markets. Using daily data, the analysis distinguishes volatility-driven co-movement from structural spillover effects across markets. Dependence structures are modeled using tail-sensitive Student-t copulas applied to GARCH-filtered returns to capture nonlinear and extreme co-movements, while a vector autoregressive framework combined with generalized impulse response functions and DieboldâYilmaz connectedness measures is employed to evaluate order-invariant shock transmission dynamics across pre- and post-ETF regimes. The results reveal three main findings. First, cryptocurrencies display strong internal dependence and short-horizon contagion, with Bitcoin consistently acting as the dominant transmitter of shocks to Ethereum over an approximately three-day transmission window. Second, linkages between cryptocurrencies and equity markets remain moderate and largely regime-dependent rather than indicative of persistent structural spillovers. Third, gold remains weakly connected throughout the sample, maintaining its role as a diversification asset. Portfolio analysis further indicates that including Bitcoin can reduce portfolio variance by 4â7% and Value-at-Risk by up to 5%, although economic gains are sensitive to transaction costs. Overall, the findings suggest that cryptocurrencies function as a partially segmented asset class, offering conditional diversification benefits despite increasing institutional adoption.
The rapid convergence of artificial intelligence and blockchain technologies has increased the demand for efficient and accurate methods to detect fraudulent behavior in smart contractâdriven systems. Smart contracts automate digital transactions in decentralized environments, yet they remain vulnerable to fraud while operating under strict computational and scalability constraints. In this study, we propose an evolutionary-guided CNN compression framework tailored for Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) aimed at improving fraud detection in smart contract analysis while significantly reducing model complexity. The proposed approach uses evolutionary optimization to guide structured model compression, enabling the removal of redundant parameters without compromising predictive performance. Experimental evaluations demonstrate up to a 50% reduction in model parameters while maintaining 97.8â97.9% classification accuracy, making the resulting models suitable for deployment in resource-constrained environments. By combining evolutionary optimization with CNN-based fraud detection, this work provides an efficient and interpretable solution for smart contract analysis, supporting scalable and practical deployment in blockchain-related security applications.
This research paper demonstrates how to manage Caputo fractional neutral integro-differential equations which include both integral and nonlinear elements through a unified framework that models dynamic systems with memory-based dynamics. The research establishes sufficient conditions for controllability through fixed point theory in a Banach space framework which requires particular assumptions while the study focuses on the K1<1 condition which leads to the existence of a controllable solution. The proposed criteria are demonstrated through a numerical example which tests the theoretical results. The real-world case study uses artificial neural network (ANN) technology to predict Litecoin prices through the application of the fractional controllability model which analyzes historical financial data. The hybrid framework enables precise forecasting of nonlinear time series because it combines fractional calculus mathematical principles with ANN learning abilities. The proposed method demonstrates its predictive efficiency. The method shows robust performance through experimental results using cross-validation and performance metrics. The proposed model demonstrates competitive performance while providing additional advantages such as incorporation of memory effects and theoretical controllability. The research establishes a novel connection between fractional dynamical systems and machine learning which serves as an essential tool for studying complicated systems in theoretical research and practical applications.
Type of the article: Research ArticleAbstractCryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, making price prediction a complex yet essential task for investors, financial engineers, and institutions. The purpose of this study is to evaluate whether Bayesian optimization of technical indicator parameters significantly improves the forecasting performance of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models compared to baseline configurations. The study used daily Bitcoin and Ethereum price data from January 2016 to September 2025. Six technical indicators representing trend, momentum, volatility, and volume-based technical indicators are constructed and dynamically optimized through Bayesian optimization. The optimized indicators are then used as inputs to an LSTM forecasting framework. The study found that the baseline LSTM model achieved moderate predictive accuracy, where Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin. After optimization, both models exhibited improved performance, reducing the forecasting error for Bitcoin by 36.4% and for Ethereum by 12.2%. LSTM model with Bayesian optimized indicators showed a higher forecasting accuracy as compared to the baseline model, with 32% and 18.6% improvements for Bitcoin and Ethereum, respectively. These findings suggest that combining optimized technical indicators with LSTM models enhances predictive power in cryptocurrency markets. The approach offers a robust forecasting framework for traders, analysts, and algorithmic systems in high-volatility environments.AcknowledgmentâThis work was funded by the Deanship of Scientific Research, Vice Presidency for Graduate Studies and Scientific Research, King Faisal University, Saudi Arabia [Project No. KFU261690].â
Bobba Pavan Santosh, Bommeneni Pavan Madhav, Dr. J. R. Jayavelu, Dr. P. Dhivya
Cryptocurrencies have found their way into contemporary financial systems as a significant component of modern-day financial systems because of their decentralized nature, their ease of adoption and uptake. Ether is considered to be one of the most actively traded currencies and its value tends to be highly volatile. It is not easy to forecast the market price trend of Ethereum due to the influence that technical trends, investor behavior, and external factors have over the market. In this project, the researcher will use machine learning to assess the future price direction of Ethereum the following day through the use of Python. The past trends of prices are analyzed and augmented with various technical indicators in order to reflect the market trends and momentum. The best potential machine learning model was selected after training and evaluating many models using Logistic Regression. The results demonstrate that machine learning may be used to provide rational insights into the price movement of Ethereum and to aid in decision-making using these insights.
Stock markets in emerging economies are shaped by a combination of global integration and domestic financial drivers. In recent years, modern variables such as cryptocurrencies have drawn attention as potential new determinants of equity performance. This study evaluates the comparative influence of traditional variables-Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) flows, USD/INR exchange rate, and NIFVIX-and a modern variable, Bitcoin returns, on the Nifty50 index. Monthly data spanning January 2015 to January 2025 were collected from Investing.com and Moneycontrol. Nifty50, Bitcoin, and USD/INR series were converted into log returns, while FII flows and NIFVIX were used in their original form. Correlation analysis and simple linear regression were done by using Microsoft Excel to measure associations and explanatory power. The results indicate a clear hierarchy of explanatory strength. USD/INR log returns emerged as the most influential determinant, explaining 26% of Nifty50 return variation with a strong negative relationship. NIFVIX explained 14% of the variation, also with a negative and highly significant effect. Bitcoin returns exhibited a modest but statistically significant positive effect, explaining around 8% of the variance. In contrast, both FII equity and total flows were statistically insignificant. The findings suggest that traditional variables-particularly exchange rates and volatility indices-remain dominant drivers of Indian equity returns, while modern variables such as Bitcoin are new but not yet central. The study contributes by showing one of the first systematic comparisons between traditional and modern variables in the Indian equity market context. Keywords: Nifty50, Bitcoin Returns, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII), USD/INR Exchange Rate, NIFVIX, Traditional vs. Modern Variables, Indian Stock Market
Drissia Ennagoura, Kamal El Kehal, Abdelhamid Berdai, Safae Merzouk ¡ 8 authors
Cryptocurrency price prediction is challenging due to strong nonlinearity and high volatility. This paper comparatively evaluates three forecasting models for Ethereum (ETH): SARIMAX with exogenous technical indicators, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and Facebook Prophet. Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) are incorporated to enhance signal quality. Empirical results reveal clear trade-offs between predictive accuracy, profitability, and risk. SARIMAX achieves the highest directional accuracy (75.00%) with limited profitability, while LSTM yields the highest cumulative profit (23.84%) at the cost of higher drawdown. Prophet provides a balanced compromise between accuracy and risk. The study contributes by jointly evaluating statistical forecasting accuracy and trading-oriented performance metrics, offering practical insights into model suitability for different investor risk profiles.
Traditional consensus mechanisms, such as Proof of Stake (PoS), increasingly reveal an excessive dependency on large liquidity providers. Although the Proof of Liquidity (PoL) mechanism serves as a critical paradigm for incentivizing sustained liquidity provision and ensuring market stability, its transition from asset staking to active liquidity management significantly increases the complexity of underlying smart contract economic models and interaction logic. This renders hidden liquidity logic flaws difficult to detect via traditional methods, seriously threatening the system stability and user asset security of mainstream DeFi and emerging PoL ecosystems. To address this, we propose the LiquiLM framework, which integrates Large Language Models (LLMs) with a Dynamic Co-Attention Network (DCN). By establishing a dynamic interaction between liquidity-critical contracts and flaw descriptions, the framework effectively bridges the semantic gap between underlying code implementations and high-level liquidity intents. We evaluate the performance of LiquiLM on 1,490 validation contracts (covering precision, recall, specificity, and F1-score). The results show that it achieves significant effectiveness in auditing and explaining liquidity flaws: in experiments using Gemini 3 Pro and GPT-4o as backbone models, respectively, the F1-scores both exceed 90%. Furthermore, through an in-depth audit of 1,380 real-world PoL and Ethereum economic contracts, LiquiLM successfully identifies 238 high-risk contracts and assists in discovering 10 vulnerabilities that have received CVE certification.
Cryptocurrency prices often move with narratives and investor sentiment. This paper builds a multilingual crypto sentiment index, ML-CryptoSI, using daily news text in six languages and Binance market data for BTC and ETH. We first aggregate language-level daily sentiment and then use PCA to extract the common component across languages. Next, we test whether ML-CryptoSI predicts next-day returns and volatility proxies after controlling for lagged market conditions, liquidity, and day-of-week fixed effects. The results show that ML-CryptoSI has incremental information for returns, especially for ETH, and the effect is stronger on high news-intensity days. In contrast, the evidence for volatility prediction is weak in this short sample. Overall, the findings suggest that the common factor in multilingual news sentiment matters for short-run crypto pricing and is state dependent.