In the modern financial system, the ability to create money is in the hands of a few central institutions. Blockchain networks, and by extension cryptocurrencies, were created with the promise of giving that power to users. The most well-known example of a blockchain technology achieving such decentralization is Bitcoin, but its popularity has arguably been matched by an alternative-currency named Dogecoin. Unlike other cryptocurrencies, which have marketed themselves on differentiating technical features, Dogecoin’s allure likely stems from its cultural roots as a meme. Where cryptocurrency is typically regarded as a difficult topic to grasp, the introduction of Doge’s (2013) most popular meme, into the crypto-space increased crypto’s accessibility to new participants. Consequently, Dogecoin exists in two economies: the financial economy and the cultural meme economy, with the latter having unprecedented tangible impacts on the former. Dogecoin’s unique cultural significance provides an example of how blockchain can succeed in promoting alternative money systems. At its peak in 2021, Dogecoin achieved a market capitalization of $88 billion. Where analysis of the Dogecoin phenomenon is lacking in the current literature, we will fill that gap with a case study of Dogecoin. By studying Dogecoin as a combination of money and meme, we can further our understanding of how to better promote social finance initiatives through the virality of memes.
Jan 1, 2022·Proceedings of the International Conference on Information Economy, Data Modeling and Cloud Computing, ICIDC 2022, 17-19 June 2022, Qingdao, China
Bitcoin movement prediction has been a research topic, especially with the Bitcoin bubble period during the COVID-10 pandemic era. It has been discussed that sentiment factors are influential in the prediction process. In this study, to validate the helpfulness of these emotion-related features, thr
Pavlo Seroyizhko, Zhanel Zhexenova, Muhammad Zohaib Shafiq, Fabio Merizzi, Andrea Galassi, Federico Ruggeri. Proceedings of the Fourth Workshop on Financial Technology and Natural Language Processing (FinNLP). 2022.
Aspiring to achieve an accurate Bitcoin price prediction based on people's opinions on Twitter usually requires millions of tweets, using different text mining techniques (preprocessing, tokenization, stemming, stop word removal), and developing a machine learning model to perform the prediction. These attempts lead to the employment of a significant amount of computer power, central processing unit (CPU) utilization, random-access memory (RAM) usage, and time. To address this issue, in this paper, we consider a classification of tweet attributes that effects on price changes and computer resource usage levels while obtaining an accurate price prediction. To classify tweet attributes having a high effect on price movement, we collect all Bitcoin-related tweets posted in a certain period and divide them into four categories based on the following tweet attributes: $(i)$ the number of followers of the tweet poster, $(ii)$ the number of comments on the tweet, $(iii)$ the number of likes, and $(iv)$ the number of retweets. We separately train and test by using the Q-learning model with the above four categorized sets of tweets and find the best accurate prediction among them. Especially, we design several reward functions to improve the prediction accuracy of the Q-leaning. We compare our approach with a classic approach where all Bitcoin-related tweets are used as input data for the model, by analyzing the CPU workloads, RAM usage, memory, time, and prediction accuracy. The results show that tweets posted by users with the most followers have the most influence on a future price, and their utilization leads to spending 80\% less time, 88.8\% less CPU consumption, and 12.5\% more accurate predictions compared with the classic approach.
In recent years, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been increasingly considered an investment option for emerging markets. However, its erratic behavior has discouraged some potential investors. To get insights into its behavior and price fluctuation, past studies have discovered the correlation between Twitter sentiments and Bitcoin behavior. Most of them have focused exclusively on their relationships, instead of the Twitter sentiment analysis itself. Finding the most suitable classification algorithms for sentiment analysis for this kind of data is challenging. For enormous data of Twitter, unlabeled data can be time-consuming and expensive for the supervised sentiment analysis approach, which has been studied to be superior to unsupervised ones. As such, we propose HyVADRF: Hybrid VADER – Random Forest and Grey Wolf Optimizer Model. Semantic and rule-based VADER was used to calculate polarity scores and classify sentiments, which overcame the weakness of manual labeling, while Random Forest was utilized as its supervised classifier. Furthermore, considering Twitter’s massive size, we collected over 3.6 million tweets and analyzed various dataset sizes as these are related to the model’s learning process. Lastly, Grey Wolf Optimizer parameter tuning was conducted to optimize the classifier’s performance. The results show that 1) HyVADRF Model returned an accuracy of 75.29 %, precision of 70.22%, recall of 87.70%, and F1-score of 78%. 2) The most ideal percentage of dataset size is 90% of the total collected tweets (n=1,249,060). 3) With standard deviations of 0.0008 for accuracy and F1-score and 0.0011 for precision and recall. Hence, HyVADRF Model consistently delivers stable results.
Naila Aslam, Furqan Rustam, Ernesto Lee, Patrick Bernard Washington · 5 authors
The cryptocurrency market has been developed at an unprecedented speed over the past few years. Cryptocurrency works similar to standard currency, however, virtual payments are made for goods and services without the intervention of any central authority. Although cryptocurrency ensures legitimate and unique transactions by utilizing cryptographic methods, this industry is still in its inception and serious concerns have been raised about its use. Analysis of the sentiments about cryptocurrency is highly desirable to provide a holistic view of peoples’ perceptions. In this regard, this study performs both sentiment analysis and emotion detection using the tweets related to the cryptocurrency which are widely used for predicting the market prices of cryptocurrency. For increasing the efficacy of the analysis, a deep learning ensemble model LSTM-GRU is proposed that combines two recurrent neural networks applications including long short term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU). LSTM and GRU are stacked where the GRU is trained on the features extracted by LSTM. Utilizing term frequency-inverse document frequency, word2vec, and bag of words (BoW) features, several machine learning and deep learning approaches and a proposed ensemble model are investigated. Furthermore, TextBlob and Text2Emotion are studied for emotion analysis with the selected models. Comparatively, a larger number of people feel happy with the use of cryptocurrency, followed by fear and surprise emotions. Results suggest that the performance of machine learning models is comparatively better when BoW features are used. The proposed LSTM-GRU ensemble shows an accuracy of 0.99 for sentiment analysis, and 0.92 for emotion prediction and outperforms both machine learning and state-of-the-art models.
E-commerce has developed greatly in recent years, as such, its regulations have become one of the most important research areas in order to implement a sustainable market. The analysis of a large amount of reviews data generated in the shopping process can be used to facilitate regulation: since the review data is short text and it is easy to extract the features through deep learning methods. Through these features, the sentiment analysis of the review data can be carried out to obtain the users’ emotional tendency for a specific product. Regulators can formulate reasonable regulation strategies based on the analysis results. However, the data has many issues such as poor reliability and easy tampering at present, which greatly affects the outcome and can lead regulators to make some unreasonable regulatory decisions according to these results. Blockchain provides the possibility of solving these problems due to its trustfulness, transparency and unmodifiable features. Based on these, the blockchain can be applied for data storage, and the Long short-term memory (LSTM) network can be employed to mine reviews data for emotional tendencies analysis. In order to improve the accuracy of the results, we designed a method to make LSTM better understand text data such as reviews containing idioms. In order to prove the effectiveness of the proposed method, different experiments were used for verification, with all results showing that the proposed method can achieve a good outcome in the sentiment analysis leading to regulators making better decisions.
Kripto para birimleri 2009 yılında ilk Bitcoin'in ortaya çıkışından bu yana finansal sistemin önemli bir parçası haline gelmiştir. Özellikle de son zamanlarda finansal sistem içerisinde potansiyel değişiklikler meydana getirerek, toplumsal karşılığı ve gelecekteki beklentileri hakkında daha çok gündemi meşgul etmeye başlamıştır. Bu gündem sosyal medya sitelerinde daha çok görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada da Twitter’da #Bitcoin olarak atılan Tweetlerin duygu analizi incelenmiştir. Bunun için Orange Data Mining programı kullanılmıştır. Sonuç olarak; Bitcoin konusunda baskın bir sevinç duygusunun olduğu ve yatırımcıların Bitcoin aldıklarında kendilerini mutlu hissettikleri görülmüştür.
Bütün sektörler dahilinde finans sektöründe de müşterilere ait fikir ve düşüncelerinin belirlenmesi, firma ve kurumların ileriki dönemler için sunacağı hizmetleri etkilemektedir. Kripto para birimlerinin (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple vb.) ekonomik ve sosyal etkileri hızla artmaya devam ettikçe, ilgili haber makalelerinin ve sosyal medya yayınlarının, özellikle de tweetlerin yaygınlığı da artmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Twitter kullanıcılarının finans sektörü konularından biri olan Bitcoin ile ilgili yorumları derlenerek bir duygu analizi çalışması yapılmıştır. Kullanıcı yorumları, Twitter’ın sunmuş olduğu API hizmeti vasıtasıyla Python Programlama Dili kullanılarak alınmış; yorumlar olumlu, nötr ve olumsuz etiketler ile ayrıştırılmış, etiket bulutunda toplanmıştır. Naïve Bayes ve Lojistik Regresyon algoritmaları kullanılarak oluşturulan modellerde başarı oranları karşılaştırılmıştır. Naïve Bayes uygulamasının tweetlerin duygularını tahmin etmedeki başarı oranı %72,19 olurken, Lojistik Regresyon uygulamasında bu oran %75,53 olmuştur. Çalışmanın ikinci aşamasında ise, duygu analizinden sonra “Bitcoin” anahtar kelimesi içeren günlük pozitif tweet oranı ile Bitcoin günlük açılış değeri beraber kullanılarak Bitcoin kapanış değeri tahminlemesi yapılmıştır. Finans verileri Yahoo Finance web sitesi üzerinden alınmış; Doğrusal Regresyon ve Rastgele Orman Regresyon yöntemleri ile modeller oluşturulmuştur. Doğrusal Regresyon için r² değeri %88,97 çıkarken, Rastgele Orman Regresyonu için ise %94,16 olmuştur.Anahtar Kelimeler: Duygu analizi, Twitter, Bitcoin, Makine öğrenmesi, Veri madenciliği, Finans
Modern day businesses are largely dependent on digital technologies. People prefer viewing the reviews before making any decisions. It applies to all consumables like buying Electronic items, Clothing, Travel, Guest-House, Restaurant, Rental, Housing, Automobile, Cosmetics, Jewellery, Movies, etc. Online services like Mantra, Yelp, Amazon, Facebook, Google My Business, Trip Advisor offer great services to the customer. However, drawbacks of these systems are fake reviews, negative reviews and sometimes even tampering of the reviews given by the customers, which has a huge impact on the business leading to huge financial losses. Sometimes a competitor in the business might also influence the ratings being provided. The centralized storage of these reviews also leads to problems like tampering or manipulation of the data being stored. In this paper we propose an application in the restaurant industry that solves all these drawbacks by making use of the Ethereum blockchain. The food reviews given by the customers are stored as smart contracts in the blockchain, which can't be altered, thus guaranteeing the authenticity of the reviews. Validity of the reviews is ensured because it is difficult for the restaurants to delete or create new accounts to wipe away the bad reviews given. Blockchain is immutable so we ensure that the reviews are genuine and the system is trustable.
Besides all uncommon events of 2020, Bitcoin finally passed 20,000 USD in this year, and grabbed more attention about what is going on cryptocurrency and what will happen next? So far, several researchers used social media data in their works and the role of public opinion especially in the specialized forums on Bitcoin price was proved.
With 56 million people actively trading and investing in cryptocurrency online and globally in 2020, there is an increasing need for automatic social media analysis tools to help understand trading discourse and behavior. In this work, we present a dual natural language modeling pipeline which leverages language and social network behaviors for the prediction of cryptocurrency day trading actions and their associated framing patterns. This pipeline first predicts if tweets can be used to guide day trading behavior, specifically if a cryptocurrency investor should buy, sell, or hold their cryptocurrencies in order to make a profit. Next, tweets are input to an unsupervised deep clustering approach to automatically detect trading framing patterns. Our contributions include the modeling pipeline for this novel task, a new Cryptocurrency Tweets Dataset compiled from influential accounts, and a Historical Price Dataset. Our experiments show that our approach achieves an 88.78% accuracy for day trading behavior prediction and reveals framing fluctuations prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic that could be used to guide investment actions. 1 Introduction Beginning with the 2008 introduction of Bitcoin (BTC) (Nakamoto, 2008), a cryptocurrency for a Peer-to-Peer cash system, the use of cryptocurrencies and their corresponding blockchains have increasingly gained in popularity. In 2019, the number of Americans owning cryptocurrency doubled from 7% in 2018 to 14%, representing about 35 million people trading and investing with cryptocurrency (Partz, 2019). This increase is largely due to the capability of cryptocurrency to improve various applications ranging from increased security of smart contracts to facilitating less expensive, faster cross-border international payments. Another contributing factor to this growth is that digital coins fulfill the prop-042 erty of storing value similar to other fiat currencies, 043 which are government-issued currencies not backed 044 by physical commodities, e.g., the American dollar 045 or euro. Finally, cryptocurrency popularity can be 046 associated with its high day trading volume. As of 047 January 2021, the combined worth of all cryptocur-048 rencies was $1 trillion 1 , with Bitcoin accounting 049 for $650 billion of this amount. To put this in per-050 spective, the average trading volume of Amazon 051 Inc. is $13 billion per day -less than one-fifth of 052 the BTC daily volume of $70 billion. 2 053 Cryptocurrencies were born on the internet, 054 gained their visibility through online and social 055 media coverage, and many investors follow the 056 advice of well-known cryptocurrency experts on 057 Twitter to guide their personal investment strate-058 gies (Mone, 2019). Because cryptocurrency prices 059 can fluctuate quickly, resulting in real-life financial 060 gains or losses, models that can rapidly analyze 061 trending discourse on Twitter can be harnessed to 062 guide and benefit investors. 063 Additionally, work in computational linguistics 064 and the social sciences have shown the benefit of 065 studying framing, which is how someone discusses 066 a topic in order to influence or alter the opinion of 067 the public, for understanding microblog discourse 068
Recent studies in big data analytics and natural language processing develop automatic techniques in analyzing sentiment in the social media information. In addition, the growing user base of social media and the high volume of posts also provide valuable sentiment information to predict the price fluctuation of the cryptocurrency. This research is directed to predicting the volatile price movement of cryptocurrency by analyzing the sentiment in social media and finding the correlation between them. While previous work has been developed to analyze sentiment in English social media posts, we propose a method to identify the sentiment of the Chinese social media posts from the most popular Chinese social media platform Sina-Weibo. We develop the pipeline to capture Weibo posts, describe the creation of the crypto-specific sentiment dictionary, and propose a long short-term memory (LSTM) based recurrent neural network along with the historical cryptocurrency price movement to predict the price trend for future time frames. The conducted experiments demonstrate the proposed approach outperforms the state of the art auto regressive based model by 18.5% in precision and 15.4% in recall.
Blockchain technology and, in particular, blockchain-based transaction offers us information that has never been seen before in the financial world. In contrast to fiat currencies, transactions through virtual currencies like Bitcoin are completely public. And these transactions of cryptocurrencies are permanently recorded on Blockchain and are available at any time. Therefore, this allows us to build transaction networks (TN) to analyze illegal phenomenons such as phishing scams in blockchain from a network perspective. In this paper, we propose a Transaction SubGraph Network (TSGN) based classification model to identify phishing accounts in Ethereum. Firstly we extract transaction subgraphs for each address and then expand these subgraphs into corresponding TSGNs based on the different mapping mechanisms. We find that TSGNs can provide more potential information to benefit the identification of phishing accounts. Moreover, Directed-TSGNs, by introducing direction attributes, can retain the transaction flow information that captures the significant topological pattern of phishing scams. By comparing with the TSGN, Directed-TSGN indeed has much lower time complexity, benefiting the graph representation learning. Experimental results demonstrate that, combined with network representation algorithms, the TSGN model can capture more features to enhance the classification algorithm and improve phishing nodes' identification accuracy in the Ethereum networks.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, many research studies have been conducted to examine the impact of the outbreak on the financial sector, especially on cryptocurrencies. Social media, such as Twitter, plays a significant role as a meaningful indicator in forecasting the Bitcoin (BTC) prices. However, there is a research gap in determining the optimal preprocessing strategy in BTC tweets to develop an accurate machine learning prediction model for bitcoin prices. This paper develops different text preprocessing strategies for correlating the sentiment scores of Twitter text with Bitcoin prices during the COVID-19 pandemic. We explore the effect of different preprocessing functions, features, and time lengths of data on the correlation results. Out of 13 strategies, we discover that splitting sentences, removing Twitter-specific tags, or their combination generally improve the correlation of sentiment scores and volume polarity scores with Bitcoin prices. The prices only correlate well with sentiment scores over shorter timespans. Selecting the optimum preprocessing strategy would prompt machine learning prediction models to achieve better accuracy as compared to the actual prices.
Introduced in 2009, Bitcoin has demonstrated a huge potential as the world’s first digital currency and has been widely used as a financial investment. Our research aims to uncover the relationship between Bitcoin prices and people’s sentiments about Bitcoin on social media. Among various social media platforms, micro-blogging is one of the most popular. Millions of people use micro-blogging platforms to exchange ideas, broadcast views, and to provide opinions on different topics related to politics, culture, science, and technology. This makes them a potentially rich source of data for sentiment analysis. Therefore we chose one of the busiest micro-blogging platforms, Twitter, to perform sentiment analysis on Bitcoin. We used ELMo embedding model to convert Bitcoin-related tweets into a vector form and SVM classifier to divide the tweets into three sentiment categories - positive, negative, and neutral. We then used the sentiment data to find its relation with Bitcoin price fluctuation using the linear mixed model.
Kristina Kapanova, Barbara Guidi, Andrea Michienzi, Kevin Koidl
Online Social Networking platforms (OSNs) are part of the people's everyday life answering the deep-rooted need for communication among humans. During recent years, a new generation of social media based on blockchain became very popular, bringing the power of the technology to the service of social networks. Steemit is one such and employs the blockchain to implement a rewarding mechanism, adding a new, economic, layer to the social media service. The reward mechanism grants virtual tokens to the users capable of engaging other users on the platform, which can be either vested in the platform for increased influence or exchanged for fiat currency. The introduction of an economic layer on a social networking platform can seriously influence how people socialize. In this work, we tackle the problem of understanding how this new business model conditions the way people create contents. We performed term frequency and topic modelling analyses over the written contents published on the platforms between 2017 and 2019. This analysis lets us understand the most common topics of the contents that appear in the platform. While personal mundane information still appears, along with contents related to arts, food, travels, and sport, we also see emerging a very strong presence of contents about blockchain, cryptocurrency and, more specifically, on Steemit itself and its users.
Son yıllarda, bloglar, tweet’ler, forumlar, e-postalar gibi Web 2.0 hizmetleri iletişim kanalı olarak yaygın bir şekilde kullanılmaktadır. Ayrıca sosyal medya; gerek bilgi paylaşımı gerekse istek, şikayet ve dilekler gibi görüşleri belirtmenin en kolay ve en güncel yolu olarak düşünülmektedir. Sosyal medyanın, birçok alana olduğu gibi Bitcoin fiyatlarına olan etkisi de son yıllarda tartışılmaktadır. Bitcoin yıllardır üzerinde durulan ve popülerliği her geçen gün artan bir yatırım aracıdır. Merkezi olmayan bir elektronik para birimi sistemi olan Bitcoin, çok sayıda kullanıcının ilgisini çeken, finansal sistemlerdeki köklü bir değişikliği ifade etmektedir. Bu çalışmada sosyal medyanın, özellikle Twitter kanalından elde edilen tweet’ler bazında, Bitcoin fiyatı ile etkileşimi ortaya konulmuştur. Bunun için 06.10.2018-19.05.2019 tarihleri arasında Twitter kullanıcıları tarafından atılan toplam 2.819.784 tweet üzerinden makine öğrenmesi yöntemlerinden sınıflandırma algoritmaları kullanılarak çeşitli analizler gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bulgular değerlendirildiğinde metin sınıflandırmada %90 ile en yüksek doğruluk oranına sahip olan Yapay Sinir Ağları kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca Bitcoin fiyatları ve sınıflandırılmış olumlu/olumsuz tweet oranları ile ikili korelasyon yapılmıştır. Elde edilen 0,681 korelasyon katsayısı ile pozitif yönde orta üstü kuvvetli ilişki tespit edilmiştir.
We report on the use of sentiment analysis on news and social media to analyze and predict the price of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the leading cryptocurrency and has the highest market capitalization among digital currencies. Predicting Bitcoin values may help understand and predict potential market movement and future growth of the technology. Unlike (mostly) repeating phenomena like weather, cryptocurrency values do not follow a repeating pattern and mere past value of Bitcoin does not reveal any secret of future Bitcoin value. Humans follow general sentiments and technical analysis to invest in the market. Hence considering people's sentiment can give a good degree of prediction. We focus on using social sentiment as a feature to predict future Bitcoin value, and in particular, consider Google News and Reddit posts. We find that social sentiment gives a good estimate of how future Bitcoin values may move. We achieve the lowest test RMSE of 434.87 using an LSTM that takes as inputs the historical price of various cryptocurrencies, the sentiment of news articles and the sentiment of Reddit posts.
Abstract The paper proposes the exploration, identification and development of a Java solution for extracting the sentiment related to the cryptocurrencies phenomenon, from the content of the posts of certain popular social networks. Detecting the positive, neutral or negative character of the sentiment is adopted as a relevant method of establishing the nature of the human perception on the topical issue defined by cryptocurrencies.
We develop a new Data-Driven Phasic Word Identification (DDPWI) methodology to determine which words matter as the bitcoin pricing dynamic changes from one phase to another. With Google search volumes as a baseline, we find that Reddit submissions are both correlated with Google and have a comparable relationship with a variety of bitcoin metrics, using Spearman's rho. Reddit provides complete access to the text of submissions. Rather than associating sentiment with market activity, we describe the DDPWI method for finding specific 'price dynamic' words associated with changes in the bitcoin pricing pattern through 2017 and 2018. We assess the significance of these changes using Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Tests with Bonferroni corrections. These price dynamic words are used to pull out associated words in the submissions thereby providing the context to their use. For example, the price dynamic word 'ban', which became significantly higher in frequency as prices fell, occurred in the context of both government regulation and internet companies banning cryptocurrency adverts. This approach could be used more generally to look at social media and discussion forums at a granular level identifying specific words that impact the metric under investigation rather than overall sentiment.
The Bitcoin protocol and its underlying cryptocurrency have started to shape the way we view digital currency, and opened up a large list of new and interesting challenges. Amongst them, we focus on the question of how is the price of digital currencies affected, which is a natural question especially when considering the price rollercoaster we witnessed for bitcoin in 2017-2018. We work under the hypothesis that price is affected by the web footprint of influential people, we refer to them as crypto-influencers.