Price movement forecasting, aimed at predicting financial asset trends based on current market information, has achieved promising advancements through machine learning (ML) methods. Most existing ML methods, however, struggle with the extremely low signal-to-noise ratio and stochastic nature of financial data, often mistaking noises for real trading signals without careful selection of potentially profitable samples. To address this issue, we propose LARA, a novel price movement forecasting framework with two main components: Locality-Aware Attention (LA-Attention) and Iterative Refinement Labeling (RA-Labeling). (1) LA-Attention, enhanced by metric learning techniques, automatically extracts the potentially profitable samples through masked attention scheme and task-specific distance metrics. (2) RA-Labeling further iteratively refines the noisy labels of potentially profitable samples, and combines the learned predictors robust to the unseen and noisy samples. In a set of experiments on three real-world financial markets: stocks, cryptocurrencies, and ETFs, LARA significantly outperforms several machine learning based methods on the Qlib quantitative investment platform. Extensive ablation studies confirm LARA's superior ability in capturing more reliable trading opportunities.
Ali Raheman, Anton Kolonin, Ben Goertzel, Gergely Hegykozi · 5 authors
We present the cognitive architecture of an autonomous agent for active portfolio management in decentralized finance, involving activities such as asset selection, portfolio balancing, liquidity provision, and trading. Partial implementation of the architecture is provided and supplied with preliminary results and conclusions.
Blockchain is a decentralized ledger used to securely exchange digital currency, perform deals and transactions efficient manner, each user of the network has access to the least copy of the encrypted ledger so that they can validate a new transaction. The blockchain ledger is a collection of all Bitcoin transactions executed in the past. Basically, it's distributed database that maintains continuously growing tamper-proof data structure blocks that holds batches of individual transactions. The completed blocks are added in a linear and chronological order. Each block contains a timestamp and information link which points to a previous block. Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer permissionless network that allows every user to connect to the network and send new transactions to verify and create new blocks. Satoshi Nakamoto described the design of Bitcoin digital currency in his research paper posted to a cryptography listserv 2008. Nakamoto's suggestion has solved the long-pending problem of cryptography and laid the foundation stone for digital currency. This paper explains the concept of bitcoin, its characteristics, the need for Blockchain, and how Bitcoin works. It attempts to highlight the role of Blockchain in shaping the future of banking , financial services, and the adoption of the Internet of Thinks and future Technologies.
Decentralized autonomous organizations are a new form of smart contract based governance. Decentralized autonomous organization platforms, which support the creation of such organizations, are becoming increasingly popular, such as Aragon and Colony. Selecting the best fitting platform is challenging for organizations, as a significant number of decision criteria, such as popularity, developer availability, governance issues, and consistent documentation of such platforms, should be considered. Additionally, decision-makers at the organizations are not experts in every domain, so they must continuously acquire volatile knowledge regarding such platforms. Supporting decision-makers in selecting the right decentralized autonomous organizations by designing an effective decision model is the main objective of this study. We aim to provide more insight into their selection process and reduce time and effort significantly by designing a decision model. This study presents a decision model for the decentralized autonomous organization platform selection problem. The decision model captures knowledge regarding such platforms and concepts systematically. The decision model is based on an existing theoretical framework that assists software engineers with a set of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making problems in software production. We conducted three industry case studies in the context of three decentralized autonomous organizations to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of the decision model in assisting decision-makers. The case study participants declared that the decision model provides significantly more insight into their selection process and reduces time and effort. We observe in the empirical evidence from the case studies that decision-makers can make more rational, efficient, and effective decisions with the decision model. Furthermore, the reusable form of captured knowledge regarding Decentralized Autonomous Organization Platforms can be employed by other researchers in their future investigations.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) could be very useful in blockchain applications such as DeFi and NFT trading. However, training / running large-scale DNNs as part of a smart contract is infeasible on today's blockchain platforms, due to two fundamental design issues of these platforms. First, blockchains nowadays typically require that each node maintain the complete world state at any time, meaning that the node must execute all transactions in every block. This is prohibitively expensive for computationally intensive smart contracts involving DNNs. Second, existing blockchain platforms expect smart contract transactions to have deterministic, reproducible results and effects. In contrast, DNNs are usually trained / run lock-free on massively parallel computing devices such as GPUs, TPUs and / or computing clusters, which often do not yield deterministic results. This paper proposes novel platform designs, collectively called A New Hope (ANH), that address the above issues. The main ideas are (i) computing-intensive smart contract transactions are only executed by nodes who need their results, or by specialized serviced providers, and (ii) a non-deterministic smart contract transaction leads to uncertain results, which can still be validated, though at a relatively high cost; specifically for DNNs, the validation cost can often be reduced by verifying properties of the results instead of their exact values. In addition, we discuss various implications of ANH, including its effects on token fungibility, sharding, private transactions, and the fundamental meaning of a smart contract.
In recent years, phishing scams have become the crime type with the largest money involved on Ethereum, the second-largest blockchain platform. Meanwhile, graph neural network (GNN) has shown promising performance in various node classification tasks. However, for Ethereum transaction data, which could be naturally abstracted to a real-world complex graph, the scarcity of labels and the huge volume of transaction data make it difficult to take advantage of GNN methods. Here in this paper, to address the two challenges, we propose a Self-supervised Incremental deep Graph learning model (SIEGE), for the phishing scam detection problem on Ethereum. In our model, two pretext tasks designed from spatial and temporal perspectives help us effectively learn useful node embedding from the huge amount of unlabelled transaction data. And the incremental paradigm allows us to efficiently handle large-scale transaction data and help the model maintain good performance when the data distribution is drastically changing. We collect transaction records about half a year from Ethereum and our extensive experiments show that our model consistently outperforms strong baselines in both transductive and inductive settings.
Distributed multi-agent learning enables agents to cooperatively train a model without requiring to share their datasets. While this setting ensures some level of privacy, it has been shown that, even when data is not directly shared, the training process is vulnerable to privacy attacks including data reconstruction and model inversion attacks. Additionally, malicious agents that train on inverted labels or random data, may arbitrarily weaken the accuracy of the global model. This paper addresses these challenges and presents Privacy-preserving and trustable Distributed Learning (PT-DL), a fully decentralized framework that relies on Differential Privacy to guarantee strong privacy protections of the agents' data, and Ethereum smart contracts to ensure trustability. The paper shows that PT-DL is resilient up to a 50% collusion attack, with high probability, in a malicious trust model and the experimental evaluation illustrates the benefits of the proposed model as a privacy-preserving and trustable distributed multi-agent learning system on several classification tasks.
AI and data driven solutions have been applied to different fields and achieved outperforming and promising results. In this research work we apply k-Nearest Neighbours, eXtreme Gradient Boosting and Random Forest classifiers for detecting the trend problem of three cryptocurrency markets. We use these classifiers to design a strategy to trade in those markets. Our input data in the experiments include price data with and without technical indicators in separate tests to see the effect of using them. Our test results on unseen data are very promising and show a great potential for this approach in helping investors with an expert system to exploit the market and gain profit. Our highest profit factor for an unseen 66 day span is 1.60. We also discuss limitations of these approaches and their potential impact on Efficient Market Hypothesis.
The sixth generation (6G) systems are generally recognized to be established on ubiquitous Artificial Intelligence (AI) and distributed ledger such as blockchain. However, the AI training demands tremendous computing resource, which is limited in most 6G devices. Meanwhile, miners in Proof-of-Work (PoW) based blockchains devote massive computing power to block mining, and are widely criticized for the waste of computation. To address this dilemma, we propose an Evolved-Proof-of-Work (E-PoW) consensus that can integrate the matrix computations, which are widely existed in AI training, into the process of brute-force searches in the block mining. Consequently, E-PoW can connect AI learning and block mining via the multiply used common computing resource. Experimental results show that E-PoW can salvage by up to 80 percent computing power from pure block mining for parallel AI training in 6G systems.
Shuo Yuan, Bin Cao, Yao Sun, Zhiguo Wan · 5 authors
Introducing blockchain into Federated Learning (FL) to build a trusted edge computing environment for transmission and learning has attracted widespread attention as a new decentralized learning pattern. However, traditional consensus mechanisms and architectures of blockchain systems face significant challenges in handling large-scale FL tasks, especially on Internet of Things (IoT) devices, due to their substantial resource consumption, limited transaction throughput, and complex communication requirements. To address these challenges, this paper proposes ChainFL, a novel two-layer blockchain-driven FL system. It splits the IoT network into multiple shards within the subchain layer, effectively reducing the scale of information exchange, and employs a Direct Acyclic Graph (DAG)-based mainchain as the mainchain layer, enabling parallel and asynchronous cross-shard validation. Furthermore, the FL procedure is customized to integrate deeply with blockchain technology, and a modified DAG consensus mechanism is designed to mitigate distortion caused by abnormal models. To provide a proof-of-concept implementation and evaluation, multiple subchains based on Hyperledger Fabric and a self-developed DAG-based mainchain are deployed. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ChainFL significantly surpasses conventional FL systems, showing up to a 14% improvement in training efficiency and a threefold increase in robustness.
Due to the distributed characteristics of Federated Learning (FL), the vulnerability of global model and coordination of devices are the main obstacle. As a promising solution of decentralization, scalability and security, leveraging blockchain in FL has attracted much attention in recent years. However, the traditional consensus mechanisms designed for blockchain like Proof of Work (PoW) would cause extreme resource consumption, which reduces the efficiency of FL greatly, especially when the participating devices are wireless and resource-limited. In order to address device asynchrony and anomaly detection in FL while avoiding the extra resource consumption caused by blockchain, this paper introduces a framework for empowering FL using Direct Acyclic Graph (DAG)-based blockchain systematically (DAG-FL). Accordingly, DAG-FL is first introduced from a three-layer architecture in details, and then two algorithms DAG-FL Controlling and DAG-FL Updating are designed running on different nodes to elaborate the operation of DAG-FL consensus mechanism. After that, a Poisson process model is formulated to discuss that how to set deployment parameters to maintain DAG-FL stably in different federated learning tasks. The extensive simulations and experiments show that DAG-FL can achieve better performance in terms of training efficiency and model accuracy compared with the typical existing on-device federated learning systems as the benchmarks.
This work assesses the impact of blockchain and smart contract on the visibility of construction supply chain and in the context of payments (intersection of cash and product flows). It uses comparative empirical experiments (Charrette Test Method) to draw comparisons between the visibility of state-of-practice and blockchain-enabled payment systems in a commercial construction project. Comparisons were drawn across four levels of granularity. The findings are twofold: 1) blockchain improved information completeness and information accuracy respectively by an average 216% and 261% compared with the digital state-of-practice solution. The improvements were significantly more pronounced for inquiries that had higher product, trade, and temporal granularity; 2) blockchain-enabled solution was robust in the face of increased granularity, while the conventional solution experienced 50% and 66.7% decline respectively in completeness and accuracy of information. The paper concludes with a discussion of mechanisms contributing to visibility and technology adoption based on business objectives.
Le Xia, Yao Sun, Mohammad Rafiq Swash, Lina Mohjazi · 6 authors
Securing safe driving for connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) continues to be a widespread concern, despite various sophisticated functions delivered by artificial intelligence for in-vehicle devices. Diverse malicious network attacks are ubiquitous, along with the worldwide implementation of the Internet of Vehicles, which exposes a range of reliability and privacy threats for managing data in CAV networks. Combined with the fact that the capability of existing CAVs in handling intensive computation tasks is limited, this implies a need for designing an efficient assessment system to guarantee autonomous driving safety without compromising data security. In this article we propose a novel framework, namely Blockchain-enabled intElligent Safe-driving assessmenT (BEST), which offers a smart and reliable approach for conducting safe driving supervision while protecting vehicular information. Specifically, a promising solution that exploits a long short-term memory model is introduced to assess the safety level of the moving CAVs. Then we investigate how a distributed blockchain obtains adequate trustworthiness and robustness for CAV data by adopting a byzantine fault tolerance-based delegated proof-of-stake consensus mechanism. Simulation results demonstrate that our presented BEST gains better data credibility with a higher prediction accuracy for vehicular safety assessment when compared with existing schemes. Finally, we discuss several open challenges that need to be addressed in future CAV networks.
Airline disruption management traditionally seeks to address three problem dimensions: aircraft scheduling, crew scheduling, and passenger scheduling, in that order. However, current efforts have, at most, only addressed the first two problem dimensions concurrently and do not account for the propagative effects that uncertain scheduling outcomes in one dimension can have on another dimension. In addition, existing approaches for airline disruption management include human specialists who decide on necessary corrective actions for airline schedule disruptions on the day of operation. However, human specialists are limited in their ability to process copious amounts of information imperative for making robust decisions that simultaneously address all problem dimensions during disruption management. Therefore, there is a need to augment the decision-making capabilities of a human specialist with quantitative and qualitative tools that can rationalize complex interactions amongst all dimensions in airline disruption management, and provide objective insights to the specialists in the airline operations control center. To that effect, we provide a discussion and demonstration of an agnostic and systematic paradigm for enabling expeditious simultaneously-integrated recovery of all problem dimensions during airline disruption management, through an intelligent multi-agent system that employs principles from artificial intelligence and distributed ledger technology. Results indicate that our paradigm for simultaneously-integrated recovery executes in polynomial time and is effective when all the flights in the airline route network are disrupted.
Open access
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cs.AI
cs.NE
Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis
The increasing need for economic, safe, and sustainable smart manufacturing combined with novel technological enablers, has paved the way for Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Big Data in support of smart manufacturing. This implies a substantial integration of AI, Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT), Robotics, Big data, Blockchain, 5G communications, in support of smart manufacturing and the dynamical processes in modern industries. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of different aspects of AI and Big Data in Industry 4.0 with a particular focus on key applications, techniques, the concepts involved, key enabling technologies, challenges, and research perspective towards deployment of Industry 5.0. In detail, we highlight and analyze how the duo of AI and Big Data is helping in different applications of Industry 4.0. We also highlight key challenges in a successful deployment of AI and Big Data methods in smart industries with a particular emphasis on data-related issues, such as availability, bias, auditing, management, interpretability, communication, and different adversarial attacks and security issues. In a nutshell, we have explored the significance of AI and Big data towards Industry 4.0 applications through panoramic reviews and discussions. We believe, this work will provide a baseline for future research in the domain.
The rapid increase of the data scale in Internet of Vehicles (IoV) system paradigm, hews out new possibilities in boosting the service quality for the emerging applications through data sharing. Nevertheless, privacy concerns are major bottlenecks for data providers to share private data in traditional IoV networks. To this end, federated learning (FL) as an emerging learning paradigm, where data providers only send local model updates trained on their local raw data rather than upload any raw data, has been recently proposed to build a privacy-preserving data sharing models. Unfortunately, by analyzing on the differences of uploaded local model updates from data providers, private information can still be divulged, and performance of the system cannot be guaranteed when partial federated nodes executes malicious behavior. Additionally, traditional cloud-based FL poses challenges to the communication overhead with the rapid increase of terminal equipment in IoV system. All these issues inspire us to propose an autonomous blockchain empowered privacy-preserving FL framework in this paper, where the mobile edge computing (MEC) technology was naturally integrated in IoV system.
Given the increasing complexity of threats in smart cities, the changing environment, and the weakness of traditional security systems, which in most cases fail to detect serious threats such as zero-day attacks, the need for alternative more active and more effective security methods keeps increasing. Such approaches are the adoption of intelligent solutions to prevent, detect and deal with threats or anomalies under the conditions and the operating parameters of the infrastructure in question. This research paper introduces the development of an intelligent Threat Defense system, employing Blockchain Federated Learning, which seeks to fully upgrade the way passive intelligent systems operate, aiming at implementing an Advanced Adaptive Cooperative Learning (AACL) mechanism for smart cities networks. The AACL is based on the most advanced methods of computational intelligence while ensuring privacy and anonymity for participants and stakeholders. The proposed framework combines Federated Learning for the distributed and continuously validated learning of the tracing algorithms. Learning is achieved through encrypted smart contracts within the blockchain technology, for unambiguous validation and control of the process. The aim of the proposed Framework is to intelligently classify smart cities networks traffic derived from Industrial IoT (IIoT) by Deep Content Inspection (DCI) methods, in order to identify anomalies that are usually due to Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) attacks.
With advancements in technology, personal computing devices are better adapted for and further integrated into people's lives and homes. The integration of technology into society also results in an increasing desire to control who and what has access to sensitive information, especially for vulnerable people including children and the elderly. With blockchain coming in to the picture as a technology that can revolutionise the world, it is now possible to have an immutable audit trail of locational data over time. By controlling the process through inexpensive equipment in the home, it is possible to control whom has access to such personal data. This paper presents a blockchain based family security system for tracking the location of consenting family members' smart phones. The locations of the family members' smart phones are logged and stored in a private blockchain which can be accessed through a node installed in the family home on a computer. The data for the whereabouts of family members stays within the family unit and does not go to any third party. The system is implemented in a small scale (one miner and two other nodes) and the technical feasibility is discussed along with the limitations of the system. Further research will cover the integration of the system into a smart home environment, and ethical implementations of tracking, especially of vulnerable people, using the immutability of blockchain.
Ibrahim Yilmaz, Kavish Kapoor, Ambareen Siraj, Mahmoud Abouyoussef
Utilities around the world are reported to invest a total of around 30 billion over the next few years for installation of more than 300 million smart meters, replacing traditional analog meters [1]. By mid-decade, with full country wide deployment, there will be almost 1.3 billion smart meters in place [1]. Collection of fine grained energy usage data by these smart meters provides numerous advantages such as energy savings for customers with use of demand optimization, a billing system of higher accuracy with dynamic pricing programs, bidirectional information exchange ability between end-users for better consumer-operator interaction, and so on. However, all these perks associated with fine grained energy usage data collection threaten the privacy of users. With this technology, customers' personal data such as sleeping cycle, number of occupants, and even type and number of appliances stream into the hands of the utility companies and can be subject to misuse. This research paper addresses privacy violation of consumers' energy usage data collected from smart meters and provides a novel solution for the privacy protection while allowing benefits of energy data analytics. First, we demonstrate the successful application of occupancy detection attacks using a deep neural network method that yields high accuracy results. We then introduce Adversarial Machine Learning Occupancy Detection Avoidance with Blockchain (AMLODA-B) framework as a counter-attack by deploying an algorithm based on the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model into the standardized smart metering infrastructure to prevent leakage of consumers personal information. Our privacy-aware approach protects consumers' privacy without compromising the correctness of billing and preserves operational efficiency without use of authoritative intermediaries.
Hang Chen, Syed Ali Asif, Jihong Park, Chien-Chung Shen · 5 authors
Federated learning (FL) is a promising distributed learning solution that only exchanges model parameters without revealing raw data. However, the centralized architecture of FL is vulnerable to the single point of failure. In addition, FL does not examine the legitimacy of local models, so even a small fraction of malicious devices can disrupt global training. To resolve these robustness issues of FL, in this paper, we propose a blockchain-based decentralized FL framework, termed VBFL, by exploiting two mechanisms in a blockchained architecture. First, we introduced a novel decentralized validation mechanism such that the legitimacy of local model updates is examined by individual validators. Second, we designed a dedicated proof-of-stake consensus mechanism where stake is more frequently rewarded to honest devices, which protects the legitimate local model updates by increasing their chances of dictating the blocks appended to the blockchain. Together, these solutions promote more federation within legitimate devices, enabling robust FL. Our emulation results of the MNIST classification corroborate that with 15% of malicious devices, VBFL achieves 87% accuracy, which is 7.4x higher than Vanilla FL.
Parimala M, Swarna Priya R M, Quoc-Viet Pham, Kapal Dev · 7 authors
Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) lays a new paradigm for the concept of Industry 4.0 and paves an insight for new industrial era. Nowadays smart machines and smart factories use machine learning/deep learning based models for incurring intelligence. However, storing and communicating the data to the cloud and end device leads to issues in preserving privacy. In order to address this issue, federated learning (FL) technology is implemented in IIoT by the researchers nowadays to provide safe, accurate, robust and unbiased models. Integrating FL in IIoT ensures that no local sensitive data is exchanged, as the distribution of learning models over the edge devices has become more common with FL. Therefore, only the encrypted notifications and parameters are communicated to the central server. In this paper, we provide a thorough overview on integrating FL with IIoT in terms of privacy, resource and data management. The survey starts by articulating IIoT characteristics and fundamentals of distributive and FL. The motivation behind integrating IIoT and FL for achieving data privacy preservation and on-device learning are summarized. Then we discuss the potential of using machine learning, deep learning and blockchain techniques for FL in secure IIoT. Further we analyze and summarize the ways to handle the heterogeneous and huge data. Comprehensive background on data and resource management are then presented, followed by applications of IIoT with FL in healthcare and automobile industry. Finally, we shed light on challenges, some possible solutions and potential directions for future research.
Recent studies in big data analytics and natural language processing develop automatic techniques in analyzing sentiment in the social media information. In addition, the growing user base of social media and the high volume of posts also provide valuable sentiment information to predict the price fluctuation of the cryptocurrency. This research is directed to predicting the volatile price movement of cryptocurrency by analyzing the sentiment in social media and finding the correlation between them. While previous work has been developed to analyze sentiment in English social media posts, we propose a method to identify the sentiment of the Chinese social media posts from the most popular Chinese social media platform Sina-Weibo. We develop the pipeline to capture Weibo posts, describe the creation of the crypto-specific sentiment dictionary, and propose a long short-term memory (LSTM) based recurrent neural network along with the historical cryptocurrency price movement to predict the price trend for future time frames. The conducted experiments demonstrate the proposed approach outperforms the state of the art auto regressive based model by 18.5% in precision and 15.4% in recall.
Supply chain integration remains an elusive goal for the construction and engineering industry. The high degree of fragmentation and the reliance on third-party financial institutions has pushed the physical and financial supply chains apart. The paper demonstrates how blockchain-based crypto assets (crypto currencies and crypto tokens) can address this limitation when used for conditioning the flow of funds based on the flow of products. The paper contrasts the integration between cash and product flows in supply chains that rely on fiat currencies and crypto assets for their payment settlement. Two facets of crypto asset-enabled integration, atomicity and granularity, are further introduced. The thesis is validated in the context of construction progress payments. The as-built data captured by unmanned aerial and ground vehicles was passed to an autonomous smart contract-based method that utilizes crypto-currencies and crypto tokens for payment settlement; the resulting payment datasets, written to the Ethereum blockchain, were analyzed in terms of their integration of product and cash flow. The work is concluded with a discussion of findings and their implications for the industry.
In this contribution we extend an ontology for modelling agents and their interactions, called Ontology for Agents, Systems, and Integration of Services (in short, OASIS), with conditionals and ontological smart contracts (in short, OSCs). OSCs are ontological representations of smart contracts that allow to establish responsibilities and authorizations among agents and set agreements, whereas conditionals allow one to restrict and limit agent interactions, define activation mechanisms that trigger agent actions, and define constraints and contract terms on OSCs. Conditionals and OSCs, as defined in OASIS, are applied to extend with ontological capabilities digital public ledgers such as the blockchain and smart contracts implemented on it. We will also sketch the architecture of a framework based on the OASIS definition of OSCs that exploits the Ethereum platform and the Interplanetary File System.