Blockchain Papers

Follow blockchain research across journals, conferences, and preprint repositories.

2,964 papersLast indexed Aug 31, 2026
Search papers

Paper index

2,964 results · page 25 of 124

Clear filters
May 7, 2024·Economics Letters
2 cites
Intricacy of cryptocurrency returns

Maximilian Nagl

This paper quantifies the intricacy, i.e., non-linearity and interactions of predictor variables, in explaining cryptocurrency returns. Using data from several thousand cryptocurrencies spanning 2014 to 2022, we observe a notably high level of intricacy. This provides a quantitative measure why linear models are often outperformed by machine learning algorithms in predicting cryptocurrency returns. Furthermore, we document that the intricacy in these predictions is considerably larger compared to stocks. Our analysis reveals that interactions are gaining importance over time, while individual non-linearity of the drivers is diminishing. This adds to the emerging literature on spillover effects between cryptocurrencies, traditional finance and the economy. This finding is important for investors as well as regulators as the high intricacy proposes challenges to both actors in the market.

Open access
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Original source
May 2, 2024·Mathematics
22 cites
Enhancing Bitcoin Price Volatility Estimator Predictions: A Four-Step Methodological Approach Utilizing Elastic Net Regression

Γεωργία Ζουρνατζίδου, Ioannis Mallidis, Dimitrios Farazakis, Christos Floros

This paper provides a computationally efficient and novel four-step methodological approach for predicting volatility estimators derived from bitcoin prices. In the first step, open, high, low, and close bitcoin prices are transformed into volatility estimators using Brownian motion assumptions and logarithmic transformations. The second step determines the optimal number of time-series lags required for converting the series into an autoregressive model. This selection process utilizes random forest regression, evaluating the importance of each lag using the Mean Decrease in Impurity (MDI) criterion and optimizing the number of lags considering an 85% cumulative importance threshold. The third step of the developed methodological approach fits the Elastic Net Regression (ENR) to the volatility estimator’s dataset, while the final fourth step assesses the predictive accuracy of ENR, compared to decision tree (DTR), random forest (RFR), and support vector regression (SVR). The results reveal that the ENR prevails in its predictive accuracy for open and close prices, as these prices may be linear and less susceptible to sudden, non-linear shifts typically seen during trading hours. On the other hand, SVR prevails for high and low prices as these prices often experience spikes and drops driven by transient news and intra-day market sentiments, forming complex patterns that do not align well with linear modelling.

Open access
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Original source
May 1, 2024·Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice
3 cites
Structural Breaks and Co-Movements of Bitcoin and Ethereum: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic Period

Bilgehan Teki̇n

Abstract This study examined the structural breakdowns and co-movements of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) cryptocurrencies from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Bai-Perron test was used to determine the change in the mean and variance of the two principal actors regarding market capitalization in the cryptocurrency market. Wavelet coherence analysis was also used to detect the co-movements between BTC and ETH. As a result of the study, several similar breaks were seen in each BTC and ETH series. Only one break could be directly associated with the pandemic process. This means that the pandemic is internalized and normalized in the process. The wavelet coherence results indicate a strong positive dependency (dark warm colours) between BTC and ETH and in phase (in the same direction) in the short and long bandgaps.

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Original source
Apr 30, 2024·Heliyon
20 cites
Comparative investment analysis between crypto and conventional financial assets amid heightened geopolitical risk

Mirzat Ullah, Kazi Sohag, Hossam Haddad

This empirical research study aims to investigate the asymmetric spillovers among crypto and key financial assets such as gold, equity, bonds, and the dollar-to-ruble exchange rate volatility, focusing on new developments during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. Utilizing time- and frequency-domain methodologies, this study conducts an in-depth analysis employing daily frequency data from January 01, 2018, to May 30, 2023. The study employs value at risk and conditional value at risk estimations to assess potential losses in the portfolio during the crisis. The findings reveal that Bitcoin exhibits hedging ability, enabling investors to diversify risk among the underlying financial assets. The study observes a significant increase in Bitcoin investments during the crisis, leading to heightened volatility and uncertainty. Negative news has a stronger impact compared to positive news, underscoring the importance of prudent asset allocation for risk mitigation. The implications of our findings are particularly significant for financial policymakers and trade partners of Russia. The study urges them to differentiate their short- and long-term strategies and procurement contracts. In the long run, policymakers should be cognizant of the influence of the riskiness of crypto assets during economic crises, guiding the formulation of prudent policies and investment decision-making initiatives.

Open access
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Energy, Environment, Economic Growth
Original source
Apr 30, 2024·International Journal of Social Science & Entrepreneurship
1 cites
Examining Cryptocurrency Dynamics with Asian Equity Indices and Commodities: A Wavelet Coherence Analysis

Muqaddas Noureen, Ammar Ahmed Siddiqui, Abdul Musawwer

A wide range of interest has been shown in this field by investors and decision-makers due to the correlation between cryptocurrencies, Asian stock indexes, and commodities in the global financial market through partitioning the data and applying the wavelet analysis approach to analyze the described movement of various variables. Moreover, this study seeks to provide information to fintech financiers and policymakers as well about the examined variables. Time-series data was obtained from 01st January 2019 to 31st December 2023 and analyzed from multiple internet sources about commodities, Asian Stock indices, and cryptocurrency prices. To find specific patterns and trends in a certain area, research used the wavelet approach to analyze the data and separate each series into a separate frequency band. The findings showed that there is a highly significant relationship among commodities, Asian stock indexes, and cryptocurrency in different frequency bands. On the other hand, a negative correlation was found in low frequency bands between the prices of commodities and cryptocurrency, whilst a positive correlation was found in high frequency bands between cryptocurrency and Asian Stock indices.

Open access
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Original source
Apr 30, 2024·Journal of risk and financial management
10 cites
Decrypting Cryptocurrencies: An Exploration of the Impact on Financial Stability

Mohamed Saleem, Yianni Doumenis, Epameinondas Katsikas, Javad Izadi · 5 authors

This study aims to empirically examine the relationship between cryptocurrency and various facets of the financial system. It seeks to provide a comprehensive understanding of how cryptocurrencies interact with, and influence, the stock market, the U.S. dollar’s strength, inflation rates, and traditional banking operations. This is carried out using linear regression models, Granger causality tests, case studies, including the collapse of the Futures Exchange (FTX), and the successful integration of Binance. The study unveiled a strong positive correlation between cryptocurrency market capitalization and key financial indicators like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Consumer Price Index, and traditional banking operations. This indicates the growing significance of cryptocurrencies within the global financial landscape. However, a mild association was found with the U.S. dollar, suggesting a limited influence of cryptocurrencies on traditional fiat currencies currently. Despite certain limitations such as reliance on secondary data, methodological choices, and geographic focus, this research provides valuable insights for policymakers, financial industry stakeholders, and academic researchers, underlining the necessity for continued study into the complex interplay between cryptocurrencies and financial stability.

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Market Dynamics and Volatility
FinTech, Crowdfunding, Digital Finance
Original source
Apr 30, 2024·arXiv (Cornell University)
16 cites
Rolling in the Shadows: Analyzing the Extraction of MEV Across Layer-2 Rollups

Christof Ferreira Torres, Albin Mamuti, Ben Weintraub, Cristina Nita-Rotaru · 5 authors

The emergence of decentralized finance has transformed asset trading on the blockchain, making traditional financial instruments more accessible while also introducing a series of exploitative economic practices known as Maximal Extractable Value (MEV). Concurrently, decentralized finance has embraced rollup-based Layer-2 solutions to facilitate asset trading at reduced transaction costs compared to Layer-1 solutions such as Ethereum. However, rollups lack a public mempool like Ethereum, making the extraction of MEV more challenging. In this paper, we investigate the prevalence and impact of MEV on Ethereum and prominent rollups such as Arbitrum, Optimism, and zkSync over a nearly three-year period. Our analysis encompasses various metrics including volume, profits, costs, competition, and response time to MEV opportunities. We discover that MEV is widespread on rollups, with trading volume comparable to Ethereum. We also find that, although MEV costs are lower on rollups, profits are also significantly lower compared to Ethereum. Additionally, we examine the prevalence of sandwich attacks on rollups. While our findings did not detect any sandwiching activity on popular rollups, we did identify the potential for cross-layer sandwich attacks facilitated by transactions that are sent across rollups and Ethereum. Consequently, we propose and evaluate the feasibility of three novel attacks that exploit cross-layer transactions, revealing that attackers could have already earned approximately 2 million USD through cross-layer sandwich attacks.

Open access
3 source records
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Original source
Apr 26, 2024·Cogent Business & Management
4 cites
Tail-spillover effects between African currencies, bitcoin, gold and oil during two recent black swan events

Thobekile Qabhobho, Cwayita Mpuku, Izunna Anyikwa, Andrew Phiri

since the onset of the cOViD-19 pandemic, african currencies, cryptocurrencies, and commodity markets have undergone significant fluctuations, displaying fat-tail properties that lies at the outer ends of the normal probability curve.the recent Russia-Ukraine war has further disrupted these markets, generating considerable interest among academics and practitioners.Our study delves into tail-end returns and volatility connectedness between Bitcoin, crude oil, gold, and four african currencies amidst the cOViD-19 and Russia-Ukraine war.employing a quantile vector autoregressive (QVaR) approach, we analyze tail-end spillover effects between markets from 4 november 2019, to 7 september 2022.Our findings reveal heightened connectedness at the quantile ends of co-movements, with left-tail spillovers being more pronounced for returns, while right-tail spillovers dominate for volatility.Bitcoin, and to a lesser extent gold and oil, emerge as effective tail-ended hedges for the egyptian Pound and nigerian naira but not for other african currencies like the algerian Dinar and south african Rand.consequently, users of egyptian and nigerian currencies in international financial markets can seek hedging opportunities in traditional cryptocurrencies and commodities during recent Black swan events, unlike those using south african and algerian currencies.additionally, our results suggest limited diversification benefits associated with (i) currencies linked to oil-exporting or oil-importing countries, (ii) currencies linked to shariah-compliant financial systems, but do indicate diversification benefits in high-inflation environments.these findings hold relevance for investors seeking improved hedging strategies against african currency risk and for african policymakers aiming to enhance intra-continental trade, foreign direct investment, and cross-border business expansions.

Open access
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
Energy, Environment, Economic Growth
Original source
Apr 26, 2024·Borsa Istanbul Review
4 cites
Analysis of the relationship of gold prices with inflation and bitcoin in the post-tapering period

Özgür Ergül, Tuba Karakaş

We analyze the hedging feature of gold against inflation by analyzing the factors affecting gold prices for the post-2013 period, including the tapering process in the United States. Our results show that especially demand for gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and US 10-year bond rates are effective on gold prices in this period. Inflation has no statistically significant effect on gold prices over the sample period; however, in the subperiod, excluding 2014–2019, inflation has a statistically significant positive impact on gold prices. We conclude that gold does provide a partial hedge against inflation as an investment tool, at least for the recent period. Furthermore, our analysis of Bitcoin’s effect on gold prices starting in the second half of 2016 shows no statistically significant relationship.

Open access
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
Original source
Apr 22, 2024·Sakarya University Journal of Science
2 cites
Bitcoin Price Prediction with Fuzzy Logic

Gülcihan Özdemir

Due to cryptocurrencies' rising prices, like bitcoin, more and more people are becoming interested in them. Success in this business depends on a good price prediction. Several methods, including heuristic and machine-learning-based ones, can currently estimate the price with varied degrees of success. This study will use the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS) model to predict the price's general direction over the next 10 days. Along with popular traders' indicators, the previous day's price will be used. The findings demonstrated that, despite errors, price direction predictions—an increase, a drop, or a stable price—are typically accurate.

Open access
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Original source
Apr 22, 2024·Computers
48 cites
Blockchain Integration and Its Impact on Renewable Energy

Hamed Taherdoost

This paper investigates the evolving landscape of blockchain technology in renewable energy. The study, based on a Scopus database search on 21 February 2024, reveals a growing trend in scholarly output, predominantly in engineering, energy, and computer science. The diverse range of source types and global contributions, led by China, reflects the interdisciplinary nature of this field. This comprehensive review delves into 33 research papers, examining the integration of blockchain in renewable energy systems, encompassing decentralized power dispatching, certificate trading, alternative energy selection, and management in applications like intelligent transportation systems and microgrids. The papers employ theoretical concepts such as decentralized power dispatching models and permissioned blockchains, utilizing methodologies involving advanced algorithms, consensus mechanisms, and smart contracts to enhance efficiency, security, and transparency. The findings suggest that blockchain integration can reduce costs, increase renewable source utilization, and optimize energy management. Despite these advantages, challenges including uncertainties, privacy concerns, scalability issues, and energy consumption are identified, alongside legal and regulatory compliance and market acceptance hurdles. Overcoming resistance to change and building trust in blockchain-based systems are crucial for successful adoption, emphasizing the need for collaborative efforts among industry stakeholders, regulators, and technology developers to unlock the full potential of blockchains in renewable energy integration.

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Original source
Apr 19, 2024·Journal of risk and financial management
12 cites
An Empirical Examination of Bitcoin’s Halving Effects: Assessing Cryptocurrency Sustainability within the Landscape of Financial Technologies

Juraj Fabuš, Iveta Kremeňová, Natália Stalmašeková, Terézia Kvasnicová-Galovičová

This article explores the significance of Bitcoin halving events within the cryptocurrency ecosystem and their impact on market dynamics. While the existing literature addresses the periods before and after Bitcoin halving, as well as financial bubbles, there is an absence of forecasting regarding Bitcoin price in the time after halving. To address this gap and provide predictions of Bitcoin price development, we conducted a rigorous analysis of past halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020, focusing on Bitcoin price behaviour before and after each occurrence. What interests us is not only the change in the price level of Bitcoins (top and bottom), but also when this turn occurs. Through synthesizing data and trends from previous events, this article aims to uncover patterns and insights that illuminate the impact of Bitcoin halving on market dynamics and sustainability, movement of the price level, the peaks reached, and price troughs. Our approach involved employing methods such as RSI, MACD, and regression analysis. We looked for the relationship between the price of Bitcoin (top and bottom) and the number of days after the halving. We have uncovered a mathematical model, according to which the next peak will be reached 19 months (in November 2025) and the trough 31 months after Bitcoin halving 2024 (in November 2026). Looking towards the future, this study estimates predictions and expectations for the upcoming Bitcoin halving. These discoveries significantly enhance our understanding of Bitcoin’s trajectory and its implications for the finance cryptocurrency market. By offering novel insights into cryptocurrency market dynamics, this study contributes to advancing knowledge in the field and provides valuable information for cryptocurrency markets, investors, and stakeholders.

Open access
2 source records
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Market Dynamics and Volatility
FinTech, Crowdfunding, Digital Finance
Original source
Apr 17, 2024·Corporate and Business Strategy Review
2 cites
Volatility spillovers across Bitcoin, stock, and exchange rates markets

David Umoru, Malachy Ashywel Ugbaka, Francis Abul Uyang, Anake Fidelis Atseye · 13 authors

Globalization of the world economy has ensured flexible exchange rate mechanisms are executed thereby creating interdependence between and within the stock, digital currency and foreign exchange markets. Unfortunately, in emerging African countries, few studies conducted on volatility spillovers failed to adequately establish the significance and pattern of volatility spillover effects between returns on Bitcoin, stock markets and exchange rates. Hence, the need for this study using the diagonal-BEKK approach. While Botswana had an inverse pattern of spillovers, Tunisia had a positive pattern. Bitcoin and stock prices both had volatility spillover effects between each other in South Africa. South Africa and Namibia were the only countries with significant volatility spillovers between stock prices and exchange rates. In countries like Kenya that had significant cross-volatility from the stock market to the exchange rate, news about the stock market stimulated reactions from investors that impacted volatility within the market. This volatility creates a multiplier effect on other economic circles of influence, depending on whether reactions are favourable to the market or unfavourable. When volatility in the Kenyan stock market rises, exchange rates in the next period experience less volatility, against the common theory that investors’ actions that cause volatility in the stock market cause withdrawal of investments.

Open access
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Original source
Apr 16, 2024·Revista de Gestão Social e Ambiental
3 cites
Understanding the Efficiency Levels among Cryptocurrencies: Islamic, Green and Traditional

Rui Dias, Rosa Galvão, Mohammad Iran, Paulo Alexandre · 5 authors

Background: Islamic cryptocurrencies are different from conventional ones in that they are backed by physical assets and are based on religious principles. After the COVID-19 pandemic, cryptocurrencies showed different behavior. However, there are not many studies on the efficiency, in its weak form, of these three typical families of cryptocurrencies (Islamic, green, and traditional). Purpose: This study compares the efficiency levels of Islamic cryptocurrencies (HelloGold), green cryptocurrencies (Cardano, NANO, Stellar, IOTA), and traditional cryptocurrencies (BTC and ETH) in the preceding period and during the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2022. Methods: This research will use Lo and Mackinlay's (1988) variance ratio methodology, and the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) model will be used. Results: The results indicate that the Islamic currency HGT and the green currency XNO display significant information asymmetries, rejecting the random walk hypothesis for various time intervals. Similarly, other green currencies such as XLM, ADA, and MIOTA, as well as ETH and BTC, reject the hypothesis to varying degrees and time intervals. Furthermore, the Islamic cryptocurrency (HelloGold) was anti-persistent before and during the conflict. The digital currencies ADA and BTC are persistent in both periods. ETH is in equilibrium in the pre-conflict period and becomes persistent during the conflict (0.50 - 0.56), while MIOTA and XLM are persistent during the pre-conflict period and shift to equilibrium during the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Finally, the XNO eco-currency shows the same anti-persistence characteristics during the two sub-periods. Conclusion: These results highlight the complexity and dynamics of cryptocurrency markets, indicating that different digital currencies can exhibit different temporal behaviors regarding information efficiency and persistence or anti-persistence patterns.

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Original source
Apr 15, 2024·Investment Analysts Journal
4 cites
A multiscale analysis of returns and volatility spillovers in cryptocurrency markets: A post-COVID perspective

Andrew Phiri, Izunna Anyikwa

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leading cryptocurrencies have undergone significant price fluctuations, prompting widespread interest in the interdependence and spillover effects among cryptocurrency markets, as well as in identifying the key cryptocurrencies that drive market movements. This study contributes to the existing literature by utilising innovative vector wavelet coherence (VWC) and wavelet local multiple correlation (WLMC) frameworks to investigate the time-frequency co-movements among four cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, and Binance). By exploring the co-movements across multiple time scales over a period from 01/01/2020 to 10/04/2023 through continuous and discrete wavelet coherency analysis, we identify four key empirical findings. Firstly, the returns connectedness is stronger than the volatility connectedness. Secondly, high-frequency co-movements are more erratic and correspond to positive and negative unexpected news, while low-frequency co-movements vary with changes in US monetary policy. Thirdly, Tether and Binance exhibit the weakest returns and volatility connectedness with other cryptocurrencies. Lastly, Ethereum and Tether (not Bitcoin) are the primary cryptocurrencies that account for returns and volatility movements in the market. We discuss the implications of these findings for various stakeholders in cryptocurrency markets.

Open access
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Energy, Environment, Economic Growth
Original source
Apr 15, 2024·Risks
3 cites
Risk Management in the Area of Bitcoin Market Development: Example from the USA

Laeeq Razzak Janjua, Iza Gigauri, Agnieszka Wójcik-Czerniawska, Elżbieta Pohulak-Żołędowska

This paper explores the relationship between Bitcoin returns, the consumer price index, and economic policy uncertainty. Employing the QARDL method, this study examines both short- and long-term dynamics between macroeconomic factors and Bitcoin returns. Our analysis of monthly time series data from January 2011 to November 2023 reveals that volatile US economic policy indicators, such as high economic policy uncertainty, volatile inflation, and rising interest rates, have recently exerted a negative impact on Bitcoin returns. This study shows that these results are true not only for traditional money but also for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, despite their cardinal features. Its decentralized nature, indicating that it has no physical representation, is not tied to any authority or national economy and relies on a complex algorithm to track transactions. Further, it yields volatile returns that depend on macroeconomic indicators.

Open access
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Original source
Apr 15, 2024·International Review of Financial Analysis
20 cites
To hedge or not to hedge? Cryptocurrencies, gold and oil against stock market risk

Krzysztof Echaust, Małgorzata Just, Agata Kliber

The article aims to determine whether any hedging strategy against stock market risk, performed using instruments popular in the literature (gold, cryptocurrencies and oil), can beat index futures . As a hedging strategy, we understand a pair-wise portfolio consisting of a long position in stocks and a short position in a hedging instrument put together to minimise the portfolio variance. As a benchmark, we analyse optimal and naive hedging strategies with futures contracts. We demonstrate that, regardless of the stock market, the best hedging strategy focused on variance minimisation requires using index futures. Both strategies: the optimisation-based one and the naive one, beat the dynamic strategies utilising the remaining hedging assets. Therefore, from a risk-minimisation point of view, investors have no motivation to implement cryptocurrencies, gold or oil in hedging strategy against stock market risk. The results are robust with respect to hedging against tail risk.

Open access
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Original source
Apr 13, 2024·World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews
0 cites
A survey on cryptocurrency price prediction

S. Venkatesh, B Rashmitha, S Manjunadha, Md Junaid

A type of digital currency known as a cryptocurrency allows all transactions to be completed online. There is no hard cash version of this soft currency. We highlight that a decentralized currency differs from a centralized currency in the any user of a virtual currency can purchase services without the need for third parties to get involved. Due to its extreme price volatility, using these cryptocurrencies has an impact on trade and international relations. Moreover, the constantly fluctuating oscillations indicate the urgent need for a more precise method of predicting this price. Deep learning techniques that use effective learning models for training data, including the LSTM, GRU, and Feedback Neural Network, can be used to do this. Benchmark datasets are used to test the suggested strategy. That brings us to the neural network, one of the clever data mining technologies that researchers in many domains have been using for the past ten years. In the current economy, stock market data is essential. There are two types of forecasting methodologies: nonlinear models (ARCH, GARCH, Neural Network) and linear models (AR, MA, ARIMA, ARMA). To forecast a company's stock price based on past prices, we employed the Box Jenkins Model also known as ARIMA, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Feedback Neural Network also known as RNN.

Open access
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Original source
Apr 12, 2024·Economic Change and Restructuring
21 cites
Dynamic volatility among fossil energy, clean energy and major assets: evidence from the novel DCC-GARCH

Oktay Özkan, Salah Abosedra, Arshian Sharif, Andrew Adewale Alola

Abstract The objective of this paper is to assess the dynamic volatility connectedness between fossil energy, clean energy, and major assets i.e., Bonds, Bitcoin, Dollar index, Gold, and Standard and Poor's 500 from September 17, 2014 to October 11, 2022. The main motivation of the study relates to examining the dynamic volatility connectedness mentioned during periods of important events such as the recent coronavirus pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict which has shown the vulnerability of economic and financial assets, energy commodities, and clean energy. The novel Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH) approach is employed for the investigation of the sample period mentioned. Empirical analysis reveals that both the total and net volatility connectedness between assets is time-varying. The highest connectedness among the assets is observed with the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, and it increases with some important international events, such as the Russia–Ukraine conflict, the referendum of Brexit, China–US trade war, and Brexit day. On average, the result shows that 32.8% of the volatility in one asset spills over to all other assets. The DCC-GARCH results also indicate that crude oil, bonds, and Bitcoin act as almost pure volatility transmitters, whereas the Dollar index, gold, and S&P500 act as volatility receivers. On the other hand, clean energy is found neutral to external shocks until the first quarter of 2020 and after that time, it starts to behave as a volatility transmitter. Based on the obtained results, we offer some specific policy implications that are beneficial to the US economy and other countries. Graphical Abstract Dynamic volatility connectedness between fossil energy, clean energy, and major assets (Bonds, Bitcoin, Dollar index, Gold, and Standard and Poor's 500)

Open access
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Energy, Environment, Economic Growth
Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
Original source
Apr 12, 2024·Financial Innovation
4 cites
Heterogeneity in the volatility spillover of cryptocurrencies and exchanges

Meiyu Wu, Li Wang, Haijun Yang

Abstract This study examines the volatility spillovers in four representative exchanges and for six liquid cryptocurrencies. Using the high-frequency trading data of exchanges, the heterogeneity of exchanges in terms of volatility spillover can be examined dynamically in the time and frequency domains. We find that Ripple is a net receiver on Coinbase but acts as a net contributor on other exchanges. Bitfinex and Binance have different net spillover effects on the six cryptocurrency markets. Finally, we identify the determinants of total connectedness in two types of volatility spillover, which can explain cryptocurrency or exchange interlinkage.

Open access
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
Original source
Apr 12, 2024·Digital Business
28 cites
Can gold-backed cryptocurrencies have dynamic hedging and safe-haven abilities against DeFi and NFT assets?

Rihab Belguith, Yasmine Snene Manzli, Azza Béjaoui, Ahmed Jeribi

Given that the interconnections of NFT and DeFi digital assets with other stablecoins still not sufficiently studied, this paper is two-fold. We first examine the dynamic conditional correlation between gold-backed cryptocurrencies and NFTs and DeFi assets during the period 02/11/2021-05/01/2023. We thereafter assess the diversification potential of gold-backed cryptocurrencies against NFTand DeFi. To this end, we use the time-varying Student's copula to investigate the cross-markets linkages among different assets in dynamic fashion. We afterwards compute the optimal hedging ratios and effectiveness index to better explore the effectiveness of portfolio risk management. Our findings clearly show that the degree of dependence between gold-backed cryptocurrencies and NFT and DeFi tokens tends to vary over time. Our results also display that gold-backed cryptocurrencies act as suitable hedging (or diversifying) assets during normal times. Nevertheless, such assets can be considered as robust safe havens during the 2022 bear market for the most of NFT and DeFi assets. More specifically, PAXG and PMGT are found to be the best safe haven instruments for both NFT and DeFi tokens. DGX also serves as safe-haven assets for some NFT and DeFi assets, but with a lower risk-mitigation capacity compared to PAXG and PMGT. In most cases, DGX tends to act as a strong diversifier. Its hedging feature is only recorded for the NFT Protocol (xNFT) and the DeFi token Chainlink (LINK). Our results are of particular interest to investors and portfolio managers who search for safe havens to mitigate the risk of their NFT and DeFi portfolios.

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
Original source
Apr 11, 2024·Investment Management and Financial Innovations
2 cites
Testing bitcoin’s safe-haven property and the correlation between Bitcoin, gold, oil, stock markets, and Google trends

Lien Thi Huong Nguyen, Hanh Hong Vu, Anh Phuong Le

Since its public introduction in 2009, Bitcoin has grown to be the most well-known cryptocurrency worldwide. There is still debate as to whether Bitcoin may be used as a hedge against other assets. The purpose of this study is to investigate the correlation between Bitcoin and conventional commodity markets such as gold, crude oil, stock markets, and investor interest (quantified via Google Trends). In addition, the paper also tests Bitcoin’s safe haven role compared to other commodity markets. The Vector Autoregression model using daily database collected during the period 2013–2021 is employed to investigate the relationship between Bitcoin and traditional commodity markets. The impulse response function is used to analyze Bitcoin price movements against economic shocks from gold, oil prices, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. In addition, the value-at-risk (VaR) model is used to test Bitcoin’s safe-haven property compared to other conventional commodity markets. The research results show that Bitcoin has negative impacts on gold, crude oil prices, and the stock market. Besides, Bitcoin responds negatively to a sharp decline in investor interest. Furthermore, the results of the VaR model show that Bitcoin is the second most volatile and risky asset, only after the crude oil market, and much riskier than gold. This result proves that Bitcoin cannot yet be considered a safe-haven instrument. These findings have several implications for investors and policymakers to minimize the risks associated with this cryptocurrency. AcknowledgmentThe authors would like to send their sincere thanks to the Reviewers and Editorial Board of the Journal. Their valuable comments and helpful support helped improve the paper’s quality. No funding was granted for this study.

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Crime, Illicit Activities, and Governance
Original source
Apr 10, 2024·Highlights in Science Engineering and Technology
0 cites
Forecasting Bitcoin Trends Based on the ARIMA Model

Jiahuan Han

This research paper aims to conduct a time series forecasting of the bitcoin mean weighted price using the data from Kaggle. The data has a one-minute resolution and includes the following variables: timestamp, open, high, low, close, volume (BTC), volume (currency), and weighted price. Data analysis was achieved using R, a statistical computing and graphics programming language. The main findings of this research paper were that the bitcoin mean weighted price had a strong upward trend and exhibited high volatility over time. The time series also had weak seasonal and significant random components, indicating periodic fluctuations and noise in the data. Four years of data were used to estimate the mean change for the following month. The results indicate that while the expected value may rise somewhat, it will do so with significant variability and unpredictability. The main implications of this research paper were that there was a potential for profit or loss depending on the timing and strategy of buying or selling bitcoins.

Open access
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Original source
Apr 10, 2024·Finance Reenvisioned: The AI Impact on Cryptocurrencies, FinTech, and Economic Futures
2 cites
AI and the Future of Finance: Transforming Cryptocurrency, FinTech, and Economic Outlooks

Murali Krishna Pasupuleti

Abstract: This chapter explores the profound impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on the future of finance, focusing on its transformative effects across cryptocurrency, financial technology (FinTech), and broader economic outlooks. It delves into the integration of AI with blockchain to revolutionize cryptocurrency markets, enhance security, and innovative trading strategies. In the realm of FinTech, the chapter examines how AI-driven services such as robo-advisors and personalized banking are reshaping customer experiences and expanding financial inclusion. Additionally, it addresses AI's role in regulatory compliance, streamlining processes through RegTech, and ensuring adherence to financial regulations. The discussion extends to economic forecasting, where AI's predictive capabilities offer nuanced insights into market trends, inflation rates, and labor dynamics, contributing to informed policy-making and strategic investment planning. Challenges such as data privacy, security, and ethical considerations in AI deployment are critically analyzed to highlight the need for robust frameworks that ensure responsible use. The chapter concludes by emphasizing the collaborative effort required among technologists, financial experts, and policymakers to harness AI's potential responsibly, advocating for adaptive strategies that balance innovation with ethical considerations, thereby shaping a future where finance is more efficient, secure, and inclusive. Keywords: Artificial Intelligence (AI),Future of Finance,Cryptocurrency Innovations,Financial Technology (FinTech),Economic Forecasting,Blockchain Technology,Robo-Advisors,Regulatory Technology (RegTech),Data Privacy in Finance,Algorithmic Trading,Financial Inclusion,Economic Trends Prediction,Ethical AI Use,Financial Security Measures and Investment Strategy.

Open access
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
FinTech, Crowdfunding, Digital Finance
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Original source