Abstract Cryptocurrencies have garnered significant attention recently due to widespread investments. Additionally, researchers have increasingly turned to social media, particularly in the context of financial markets, to harness its predictive capabilities. Investors rely on platforms like Twitter to analyze investments and detect trends, which can directly impact the future price movements of Bitcoin. Understanding and analyzing Twitter sentiments can potentially provide insights into future Bitcoin price movements and can shed light on how investor sentiment affects cryptocurrency markets. In this study, we explore the correlation between Twitter activity and Bitcoin prices by examining tweets related to Bitcoin price sentiments. Our proposed model consists of two distinct networks. The first network exclusively utilizes historical price data, which is further decomposed into various components using the Empirical Mode Decomposition method. This decomposition helps mitigate the impact of irregular fluctuations on Bitcoin price predictions. Each of these components is then separately processed by Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. The second network focuses on modeling user sentiments and emotions in conjunction with Bitcoin market data. User opinions are categorized into positive and negative classes and are integrated with historical data to predict the next-day price using LSTM networks. Finally, the outputs of each network are combined to form the ultimate prediction values. Experimental results demonstrate that Twitter sentiment can effectively helps us predict Bitcoin price trends. Furthermore, to validate our proposed model, we compared it with several state-of-the-art methods. The results indicate that our approach outperforms these existing models in terms of accuracy.
Despite their recent inception, cryptocurrencies have become globally recognized for their dispersal, diversity, and high market capitalization. This volatility developed into a challenge for investors looking to predict price movements. Thus, it has become an attractive investment opportunity. To increase prediction accuracy, researchers integrate machine learning algorithms with technical indicators. In this review, a systematic comparison has been employed to identify efficient algorithms, and researchers have employed statistical measures to make short- and long-term forecasts of decentralized money prices. Moreover, the paper highlights the results of researchers based on machine learning and deep learning methodologies on multiple types of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Monero, etc. Lastly, the work emphasizes the limitations, gaps, and challenges facing researchers to take advantage of existing literature for future works.
Manoel Fernando Alonso Gadi, MiguelâĂngel Sicilia
Abstract The objective of this paper is to describe Cryptocurrency Linguo (CryptoLin), a novel corpus containing 2683 cryptocurrency-related news articles covering more than a three-year period. CryptoLin was human-annotated with discrete values representing negative, neutral, and positive news respectively. Eighty-three people participated in the annotation process; each news title was randomly assigned and blindly annotated by three human annotators, one in each different cohort, followed by a consensus mechanism using simple voting. The selection of the annotators was intentionally made using three cohorts with students from a very diverse set of nationalities and educational backgrounds to minimize bias as much as possible. In case one of the annotators was in total disagreement with the other two (e.g., one negative vs two positive or one positive vs two negative), we considered this minority report and defaulted the labeling to neutral. Fleissâs Kappa, Krippendorffâs Alpha, and Gwetâs AC1 inter-rater reliability coefficients demonstrate CryptoLinâs acceptable quality of inter-annotator agreement. The dataset also includes a text span with the three manual label annotations for further auditing of the annotation mechanism. To further assess the quality of the labeling and the usefulness of CryptoLin dataset, it incorporates four pretrained Sentiment Analysis models: Vader, Textblob, Flair, and FinBERT. Vader and FinBERT demonstrate reasonable performance in the CryptoLin dataset, indicating that the data was not annotated randomly and is therefore useful for further research1. FinBERT (negative) presents the best performance, indicating an advantage of being trained with financial news. Both the CryptoLin dataset and the Jupyter Notebook with the analysis, for reproducibility, are available at the projectâs Github. Overall, CryptoLin aims to complement the current knowledge by providing a novel and publicly available Gadi and Ăngel Sicilia (Cryptolin dataset and python jupyter notebooks reproducibility codes, 2022) cryptocurrency sentiment corpus and fostering research on the topic of cryptocurrency sentiment analysis and potential applications in behavioral science. This can be useful for businesses and policymakers who want to understand how cryptocurrencies are being used and how they might be regulated. Finally, the rules for selecting and assigning annotators make CryptoLin unique and interesting for new research in annotator selection, assignment, and biases.
The current investigation delves into the valuation trends of prominent Non-Fungible Token (NFT) collections, entities at the forefront of the digital economy that are redefining concepts of asset ownership and artistic appreciation. The academic import of this study is anchored in the emergent nature of NFTs and their paradigmatic shift from traditional economic models. This research aims to decipher the market value fluctuations of top NFT collections through a comprehensive time-series analysis, the application of the ARIMA model. Methodologically, the study adheres to established time-series analytical procedures, with a focus on identifying and interpreting patterns and trends within the market data. The approach synthesizes a broad spectrum of economic and cultural variables that potentially exert influence over the NFT marketplace. Results gleaned from the analysis yield insights into the price movements of NFTs, offering a juxtaposition of predicted and actual market data to deepen the understanding of this unique market sector. The implications of this research extend beyond academic interest, offering a vital resource for stakeholders within the digital economy. The discerned patterns and dynamics of NFTs, as revealed through the study, contribute to a granular understanding of digital assets, providing a scaffold for future research endeavors and practical guidance for participants in the digital art and ownership space.
Nehal N. AlMadany, Omar Hujran, Ghazi AlâNaymat, Aktham Maghyereh
The emergence of cryptocurrencies has generated enthusiasm and concern in the modern global economy. However, their high volatility, erratic price fluctuations, and tendency to exhibit price bubbles have made investors cautious about investing in them. Consequently, it is essential to develop methods and models to forecast cryptocurrency returns to benefit investors, traders, and the scientific community. Despite the considerable volume of research on Bitcoin price forecasting, other cryptocurrencies have received little attention in academic literature. Additionally, the current body of literature on predicting cryptocurrency prices or returns emphasizes the use of in-sample methodologies. However, this method is susceptible to overfitting. To address these gaps in the literature, this study employs autoregressive moving average (ARMA), generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH), exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH), and long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning neural networks to forecast returns for the ten most actively traded digital currencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Chainlink, Litecoin, Cardano, Ethereum Classic, Bitcoin Cash, Tether, and Binance Coin. To assess the accuracy of the two models, this study utilizes an out-of-sample method with data gathered sequentially from November 9, 2017, to September 18, 2022. The results indicate that all models exhibit high accuracy, as evidenced by their low root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean squared error (MSE) values. Meanwhile, the hybrid EGARCH-LSTM or GARCH-LSTM models demonstrate slightly better accuracy compared with the other models. The findings are valuable for investors, traders, and researchers involved in cryptocurrency forecasting.
The system proposed in this paper aims to predict cryptocurrency prices using Bi-Directional Long Short- Term Memory (LSTM), leveraging historical data obtained from Yahoo Finance and CoinGecko APIs. The goal is to assess LSTM models effectiveness in forecasting cryptocurrency prices and offer an interactive interface for users to visualize historical and forecasted prices. Several research works have been conducted on the prediction of cryptocurrency prices through various Deep Learning (DL) based algorithms. This project comprises two main approaches : one involves data analysis, LSTM modeling, and change point detection using Yahoo Finance data, while the other focuses on LSTM model training and price prediction using CoinGecko API data. The paper suggests that the prediction models it presents are useful for traders, investors, [6] and finance academics and are close to accurate at predicting the values of cryptocurrencies. Future research will examine more advanced deep learning architectures, primarily Transformer-based models like the GPT series, to improve pattern detection in bitcoin data. Integrating other data sources, such as sentiment analysis or blockchain measurements, may increase the accuracy of forecasting. With further research into cutting-edge techniques, cryptocurrency forecasting will get better and provide stakeholders with more information to help them make informed decisions. Keywordsâ Cryptocurrency ; forecasting ; Bi-Directional LSTM Model ; Time-series forecasting ; Machine learning
Financial market prediction has profound impacts on trading, investing, and risk management strategies. However, accurate forecasting of asset prices like stocks, cryptocurrencies, forex, and commodities remains challenging due to the complexity, noise, and non-stationarity in financial time series data. This project leverages machine learning to develop data-driven predictive models that can capture intricate patterns and provide actionable insights. Three distinct algorithms are explored - Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for next-day price forecasting, linear regression for next-day forecasting, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks for predicting prices over a 1-week (7-day) horizon. Extensive historical data from major stock indices like S&P 500, NIFTY 50, top cryptocurrencies, forex currency pairs, and commodities are utilized for training and evaluation. The models incorporate both technical indicators derived from price/volume data as well as fundamental factors and news sentiment obtained from sources like Alpha Vantage API. A rigorous methodology involving data preprocessing, feature engineering, model training, hyperparameter optimization, and backtesting on unseen data is employed to ensure the models' robustness and generalization capabilities. Appropriate error metrics like mean squared error and directional accuracy are used for quantitative performance assessment. Additionally, interpretability techniques are applied to the LSTM models to uncover non-linear patterns and understand the key drivers influencing the forecasts. The overarching goal is to develop accurate predictive systems that financial institutions, quantitative funds, and individual investors can leverage for applications like algorithmic trading, portfolio optimization, and data-driven investment decision support across different asset classes and market conditions
Abstract Nowadays, the prediction of cryptocurrency side effects on the critical aspects of the exchange rates in intelligent business is one of the main challenges in the financial market. Cryptocurrency is defined as a set of digital information concerning internal financial protocols of digital marketing, such as blockchain, which operates according to a decentralized architecture. On the other hand, fraud activities in Ethereum transfer and management of cryptocurrency now increase and affect safe transactional processes. This article presents a new machineâlearning approach to Ethereum fraud Detection based on Bayesian Optimizable Ensemble Bagged Trees (BOEBT) algorithm. Moreover, the main goal of this study is to derive the accuracy of the cryptocurrency prediction model using different machineâlearning algorithms and compare their evaluation parameters together. The performance of the proposed prediction model using the machine learning algorithms was evaluated by the MATLAB tool. The experimental results show that the proposed BOEBT algorithm merits achieving 99.21% accuracy and 99.14% F1âScore to other machine learning algorithms for cryptocurrency fraud prediction.
As the non-fungible token (NFT) market flourishes, price prediction emerges as a pivotal direction for investors gaining valuable insight to maximize returns. However, existing works suffer from a lack of practical definitions and standardized evaluations, limiting their practical application. Moreover, the influence of users' multi-behaviour transactions that are publicly accessible on NFT price is still not explored and exhibits challenges. In this paper, we address these gaps by presenting a practical and hierarchical problem definition. This approach unifies both collection-level and token-level task and evaluation methods, which cater to varied practical requirements of investors. To further understand the impact of user behaviours on the variation of NFT price, we propose a general wallet profiling framework and develop a COmmunity enhanced Multi-bEhavior Transaction graph model, named COMET. COMET profiles wallets with a comprehensive view and considers the impact of diverse relations and interactions within the NFT ecosystem on NFT price variations, thereby improving prediction performance. Extensive experiments conducted in our deployed system demonstrate the superiority of COMET, underscoring its potential in the insight toolkit for NFT investors.
Kia Jahanbin, Mohammad Ali Zare Chahooki, Mahdi YazdianâDehkordi, Fatemeh Rahmanian
OBJECTIVES: Due to the limitations of Twitter, the expansion of Telegram channels, and the Telegram API's easy use, Telegram comments have become prevalent. Telegram is one of the most popular social networks, unlike Twitter, which has no restrictions on sending messages, and experts can share their opinions and media. Some of these channels, managed by influencers of large companies, are very influential in the behavior of the market on various stocks, including cryptocurrencies. In this research, the opinion collection of 10 famous Telegram channels regarding the analysis of cryptocurrencies has been extracted. The sentiments of these opinions have been analyzed using the HDRB model. HDRB is a hybrid model of RoBERTa deep neural network, BiGRU, and attention layer used for sentiment analysis (SA). Analyzing the sentiments of these opinions is very important for understanding the future behavior of the market and managing the stock portfolio. The opinions of this dataset, published by experts in the field of cryptocurrencies, are precious, unlike the opinions that are extracted only by using the hashtag of the names of cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, the dataset related to cryptocurrencies, which has the opinions of experts and the polarity of their feelings, is very rare. DATA DESCRIPTION: The dataset of this research is the sentiments of more than ten popular Telegram channels regarding a wide range of cryptocurrencies. These comments were collected through the Telegram API from December 2023 to March 2024. This data set contains an Excel file containing the text of the comments, the date of comment creation, the number of views, the compound score, the sentiment score, and the type of sentiment polarity. These opinions cover influencer analysis on a wide range of cryptocurrencies. Also, two Word files, one containing the description of the dataset columns and the other Python code for extracting comments from Telegram channels, are included in this dataset.
Joy Dip Das, Ruppa K. Thulasiram, Christopher J. Henry, A. Thavaneswaran
This work addresses the intricate task of predicting the prices of diverse financial assets, including stocks, indices, and cryptocurrencies, each exhibiting distinct characteristics and behaviors under varied market conditions. To tackle the challenge effectively, novel encoderâdecoder architectures, AE-LSTM and AE-GRU, integrating the encoderâdecoder principle with LSTM and GRU, are designed. The experimentation involves multiple activation functions and hyperparameter tuning. With extensive experimentation and enhancements applied to AE-LSTM, the proposed AE-GRU architecture still demonstrates significant superiority in forecasting the annual prices of volatile financial assets from the multiple sectors mentioned above. Thus, the novel AE-GRU architecture emerges as a superior choice for price prediction across diverse sectors and fluctuating volatile market scenarios by extracting important non-linear features of financial data and retaining the long-term context from past observations.
Raed Alsini, Qasem Abu AlâHaija, Abdulaziz A. Alsulami, Badraddin Alturki · 8 authors
Introduction: The cryptocurrency market is captivating the attention of both retail and institutional investors. While this highly volatile market offers investors substantial profit opportunities, it also entails risks due to its sensitivity to speculative news and the erratic behavior of major investors, both of which can provoke unexpected price fluctuations. Methods: In this study, we contend that extreme and sudden price changes and atypical patterns might compromise the performance of technical signals utilized as the basis for feature extraction in a machine learning-based trading system by either augmenting or diminishing the model's generalization capability. To address this issue, this research uses a bagged tree (BT) model to forecast the buy signal for the cryptocurrency market. To achieve this, traders must acquire knowledge about the cryptocurrency market and modify their strategies accordingly. Results and discussion: To make an informed decision, we depended on the most prevalently utilized oscillators, namely, the buy signal in the cryptocurrency market, comprising the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Bollinger Bands (BB), and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicator. Also, the research evaluates how accurately a model can predict the performance of different cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), and Binance Coin (BNB). Furthermore, the efficacy of the most popular machine learning model in precisely forecasting outcomes within the cryptocurrency market is examined. Notably, predicting buy signal values using a BT model provides promising results.
This study delves into the relationship between emotional trends from X platform data and the market dynamics of well-known cryptocurrencies Cardano, Binance, Fantom, Matic, and Ripple over the period from October 2022 to March 2023. Leveraging SenticNet, we identified emotions like Fear and Anxiety, Rage and Anger, Grief and Sadness, Delight and Pleasantness, Enthusiasm and Eagerness, and Delight and Joy. Following data extraction, we segmented each month into bi-weekly intervals, replicating this process for price data obtained from Finance-Yahoo. Consequently, a comparative analysis was conducted, establishing connections between emotional trends observed across bi-weekly intervals and cryptocurrency prices, uncovering significant correlations between emotional sentiments and coin valuations.
Cryptocurrency markets have emerged as a dynamic and intriguing domain, with Bitcoin at the forefront, captivating the attention of investors, researchers, and enthusiasts alike. The volatile nature of Bitcoin prices presents both opportunities and challenges for market participants seeking to understand and anticipate its movements. In this study, we delve into the realm of time series analysis to explore the feasibility of predicting The research journey begins with meticulous data preprocessing steps to ensure the quality and integrity of the input data. Leveraging Python libraries such as pandas and NumPy, we cleanse and format the historical Bitcoin price data, laying the foundation for subsequent analysis. Key preprocessing tasks include handling missing values, normalization, and addressing any anomalies or outliers that may distort the underlying patterns. With the data prepared, our attention turns to assessing the stationarity of the Bitcoin price time seriesâa fundamental prerequisite for applying classical time series models. Through visual inspection and statistical tests such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, we ascertain the presence of trends or seasonality that could influence the modelling process. To mitigate such effects, we employ techniques such as differencing and transformations, including the Box-Cox transformation, to stabilize the variance of the data. Armed with a stationary time series, we embark on the core of our analysis: modelling Bitcoin prices using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (SARIMAX) models. These models, renowned for their versatility and effectiveness in capturing temporal dependencies, offer a sophisticated framework for forecasting time series data. Guided by the principles of parsimony and model selection criteria such as the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), we systematically explore the parameter space to identify the optimal specifications for our models. The efficacy of the chosen models is rigorously evaluated through diagnostic checks, encompassing residual analysis, model fit statistics, and out-of-sample validation. Insights gleaned from these assessments inform our confidence in the models' predictive capabilities and guide our interpretation of the forecasted outcomes. Finally, armed with a validated model, we turn our gaze to the future, employing it to generate forecasts of Bitcoin prices for forthcoming periods. Visualizations juxtaposing predicted prices against observed values provide a compelling narrative of the model's performance and offer stakeholders valuable insights into potential market trends and dynamics. In summary, this research contributes to the burgeoning field of cryptocurrency analytics by showcasing the application of time-tested statistical methodologies to forecast Bitcoin prices. By leveraging the power of ARIMA and SARIMAX models, we illuminate the intricate patterns underlying Bitcoin's price dynamics, empowering market participants with actionable intelligence for informed decision-making in an ever-evolving landscape. Keywords Cryptocurrency Markets, Bitcoin Price Prediction, Time Series Analysis, Python Programming, Data Preprocessing, Pandas, NumPy, Stationarity Testing, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Test, Box-Cox Transformation, ARIMA Model, SARIMAX Model, Model Selection, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Diagnostic Checks, Residual Analysis, Out-of-Sample Validation, Forecasting, Visualization, Market Trends, Decision-Making, Cryptocurrency Analytics
ÎΔÏÏγία ÎÎżÏ ÏΜαÏÎ¶ÎŻÎŽÎżÏ , Ioannis Mallidis, Dimitrios Farazakis, Christos Floros
This paper provides a computationally efficient and novel four-step methodological approach for predicting volatility estimators derived from bitcoin prices. In the first step, open, high, low, and close bitcoin prices are transformed into volatility estimators using Brownian motion assumptions and logarithmic transformations. The second step determines the optimal number of time-series lags required for converting the series into an autoregressive model. This selection process utilizes random forest regression, evaluating the importance of each lag using the Mean Decrease in Impurity (MDI) criterion and optimizing the number of lags considering an 85% cumulative importance threshold. The third step of the developed methodological approach fits the Elastic Net Regression (ENR) to the volatility estimatorâs dataset, while the final fourth step assesses the predictive accuracy of ENR, compared to decision tree (DTR), random forest (RFR), and support vector regression (SVR). The results reveal that the ENR prevails in its predictive accuracy for open and close prices, as these prices may be linear and less susceptible to sudden, non-linear shifts typically seen during trading hours. On the other hand, SVR prevails for high and low prices as these prices often experience spikes and drops driven by transient news and intra-day market sentiments, forming complex patterns that do not align well with linear modelling.
Peter T. Yamak, Yujian Li, Ting Zhang, Pius Kwao Gadosey
In this paper, we introduce Wide-TSNet, a novel hybrid approach for predicting Bitcoin prices using time-series data transformed into images. The method involves converting time-series data into Markov transition fields (MTFs), enhancing them using histogram equalization, and classifying them using Wide ResNets, a type of convolutional neural network (CNN). We propose a tripartite classification system to accurately represent Bitcoin price trends. In addition, we demonstrate the effectiveness of Wide-TSNet through various experiments, in which it achieves an Accuracy of approximately 94% and an F1 score of 90%. It is also shown that lightweight CNN models, such as SqueezeNet and EfficientNet, can be as effective as complex models under certain conditions. Furthermore, we investigate the efficacy of other image transformation methods, such as Gramian angular fields, in capturing the trends and volatility of Bitcoin prices and revealing patterns that are not visible in the raw data. Moreover, we assess the effect of image resolution on model performance, emphasizing the importance of this factor in image-based time-series classification. Our findings explore the intersection between finance, image processing, and deep learning, providing a robust methodology for financial time-series classification.
Phumudzo Lloyd Seabe, Claude Rodrigue Bambe Moutsinga, Edson Pindza
This study explores cryptocurrency investment strategies by adapting the robust framework of factor investing, traditionally applied in equity markets, to the distinctive landscape of cryptocurrency assets. It conducts an in-depth examination of 31 prominent cryptocurrencies from December 2017 to December 2023, employing the FamaâMacBeth regression method and portfolio regressions to assess the predictive capabilities of market, size, value, and momentum factors, adjusted for the unique characteristics of the cryptocurrency market. These characteristics include high volatility and continuous trading, which differ markedly from those of traditional financial markets. To address the challenges posed by the perpetual operation of cryptocurrency trading, this study introduces an innovative rebalancing strategy that involves weekly adjustments to accommodate the marketâs constant fluctuations. Additionally, to mitigate issues like autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity in financial time series data, this research applies the NeweyâWest standard error approach, enhancing the robustness of regression analyses. The empirical results highlight the significant predictive power of momentum and value factors in forecasting cryptocurrency returns, underscoring the importance of tailoring conventional investment frameworks to the cryptocurrency context. This study not only investigates the applicability of factor investing in the rapidly evolving cryptocurrency market, but also enriches the financial literature by demonstrating the effectiveness of combining FamaâMacBeth cross-sectional analysis with portfolio regressions, supported by NeweyâWest standard errors, in mastering the complexities of digital asset investments.
Currently bitcoin is considered an investment tools, the value of bitcoin itself is unstable so it is difficult to predict which can cause losses for bitcoin traders. Some previous research shows that Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) which is a deep learning approach as an improvement of RNN has the best performance in predicting stocks and cryptocurrencies compared to Support Vector Machine (SVM), Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and Moving Average (MA), and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). LSTM has the disadvantage that it is difficult to understand in determining the best parameters and to obtain good results it needs strict hyperparameter adjustment. This study aims to find the best parameters in LSTM by selecting the amount of data, training data composition, batch size, epoch and the amount of prediction time and analyzing prediction performance. In this study, data collection was carried out in real time and was able to provide predictions for the next few days. The test results of the LSTM algorithm have a performance with an average accuracy of 93.69% with the parameters of the amount of bitcoin price data used is 3 years, with a percentage of train data of 85%, using 10 batch sizes, with a number of epochs 125, and the highest average accuracy rate for 7 days of prediction.
Bitcoin, the first cryptocurrency, has attracted much attention in the digital currency market, and its price volatility is affected by a variety of factors, posing a challenge to investors. For the sake of analytical feasibility, many studies have adopted simplified modeling assumptions. This may overlook certain key nonlinear features of the market, such as the complexity of investor behavior and the volatility of market sentiment. This study explores the application of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and their derivative models in predicting Bitcoin prices. Recognizing the complex nature of Bitcoinâs market dynamics, the research delves into the effectiveness of LSTM in capturing the nonlinear patterns of cryptocurrency prices. Furthermore, it extends the analysis to derivative models like MSM-LSTM and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) LSTM, evaluating their ability to enhance prediction accuracy by addressing the limitations of the standard LSTM. This study provides an in-depth analysis of the effectiveness of LSTM and its derived models in the practical application of Bitcoin price prediction, with a special focus on their ability to capture non-linear patterns in the market. In Bitcoin price prediction, LSTM models have limitations but also great potential in capturing nonlinear patterns in the market. Extended models based on their own can perform well in Bitcoin price prediction. This study contributes to the field by suggesting strategies to improve the accuracy of the model and by providing ideas for developing trading strategies based on the results of the analysis.
This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the existing body of work on predicting the price of Bitcoin using deep learning techniques. It discusses the fundamental concepts behind deep learning and Bitcoin, including recurrent neural networks, convolutional neural networks, and long short-term memory networks. The study also examines the data sources used in training these models, including historical Blockchain transaction data, social media sentiments, and Bitcoin prices. The report also highlights the importance of metrics like mean absolute error, mean squared error, and root mean squared error for evaluating the effectiveness of various models. It also discusses future research topics, such as incorporating external factors into prediction models. The article offers valuable insights for academics, practitioners, and policymakers interested in cryptocurrency prediction.
Since cryptocurrencies are among the most extensively traded financial instruments globally, predicting their price has become a crucial topic for investors. Our dataset, which includes fluctuations in Bitcoinâs hourly prices from 15 May 2018 to 19 January 2024, was gathered from Crypto Data Download. It is made up of over 50,000 hourly data points that provide a detailed view of the price behavior of Bitcoin over a five-year period. In this study, we used potent algorithms, including gradient descent, attention mechanisms, long short-term memory (LSTM), and artificial neural networks (ANNs). Furthermore, to estimate the price of Bitcoin, we first merged two deep learning algorithms, LSTM and attention mechanisms, and then combined LSTM-Attention with gradient-specific optimization to increase our modelâs performance. Then we integrated ANN-LSTM and included gradient-specific optimization for the same reason. Our results show that the hybrid model with gradient-specific optimization can be used to anticipate Bitcoin values with better accuracy. Indeed, the hybrid model combines the best features of both approaches, and gradient-specific optimization improves predictive performance through frequent analysis of pricing data changes.
Due to cryptocurrencies' rising prices, like bitcoin, more and more people are becoming interested in them. Success in this business depends on a good price prediction. Several methods, including heuristic and machine-learning-based ones, can currently estimate the price with varied degrees of success. This study will use the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS) model to predict the price's general direction over the next 10 days. Along with popular traders' indicators, the previous day's price will be used. The findings demonstrated that, despite errors, price direction predictionsâan increase, a drop, or a stable priceâare typically accurate.
Bitcoin has become a prominent financial instrument in recent years, attracting increasing attention as a digital currency. Accurately forecasting the valuation of a financial asset carries substantial significance for both retail and institutional investors. The aim of this study is to evaluate and compare the predictive capabilities of various models, namely Support Vector Regression (SVR), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), a hybrid model combining CNN and Bidirectional LSTM (CNN-BiLSTM), and XGBoost, in the context of forecasting Bitcoin price. The main aim of this study is to ascertain the algorithm that demonstrates the most efficacy in forecasting the price of Bitcoin. This study utilizes the S&P500 index, Gold/Dollar exchange rate, West Texas Spot Oil Price, and Dollar Index as exogenous factors in order to forecast the price of Bitcoin. The dataset encompasses a consecutive time span of 2191 days, commencing on January 1, 2015 and concluding on September 18, 2023. The models outlined in the study undergo a two-stage procedure, including of training and testing. The assessment of the models' performance was carried out by utilizing several statistical measures, such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and R-squared (R2). The results indicate that the XGBoost algorithm had greater performance in projecting the price of Bitcoin, as evidenced by its consistently higher performance metrics across all evaluated aspects. The XGBoost model was succeeded by the CNN-BiLSTM, CNN, and LSTM models, which are hybrid methodologies, resulting in the most advantageous results. The SVR model demonstrated the least favorable performance..