This study will investigate the predictability of a Chaotic time-series data using Reservoir computing (Echo State Network), Deep-Learning(LSTM) and Machine- Learning(Linear, Bayesian, ElasticNetCV , Random Forest, XGBoost Regression and a machine learning Neural Network) on the short (1-day out prediction), medium (5-day out prediction) and long-term (30-day out prediction) pricing of Bitcoin and Ethereum Using a range of machine learning tools, to perform feature selection by permutation importance to select technical indicators on the individual cryptocurrencies, to ensure the datasets are the best for predictions per cryptocurrency while reducing noise within the models. The predictability of these two chaotic time-series is then compared to evaluate the models to find the best fit model. The models are fine-tuned, with hyperparameters, design of the network within the LSTM and the reservoir size within the Echo State Network being adjusted to improve accuracy and speed. This research highlights the effect of the trends within the cryptocurrency and its effect on predictive models, these models will then be optimized with hyperparameter tuning, and be evaluated to compare the models across the two currencies. It is found that the datasets for each cryptocurrency are different, due to the different permutation importance, which does not affect the overall predictability of the models with the short and medium-term predictions having the same models being the top performers. This research confirms that the chaotic data although can have positive results for shortand medium-term prediction, for long-term prediction, technical analysis basedprediction is not sufficient.
In this chapter we discuss pseudorandom generators. Loosely speaking, these are efficient deterministic programs that expand short, randomly selected seeds into much longer “pseudorandom” bit sequences (see illustration in Figure 3.1). Pseudorandom sequences are defined as computationally indistinguishable from truly random sequences by efficient algorithms. Hence the notion of computational indistinguishability (i.e., indistinguishability by efficient procedures) plays a pivotal role in our discussion. Furthermore, the notion of computational indistinguishability plays a key role also in subsequent chapters, in particular in the discussions of secure encryption, zero-knowledge proofs, and cryptographic protocols. The theory of pseudorandomness is also applied to functions, resulting in the notion of pseudorandom functions, which is a useful tool for many cryptographic applications. In addition to definitions of pseudorandom distributions, pseudorandom generators, and pseudorandom functions, this chapter contains constructions of pseudorandom generators (and pseudorandom functions) based on various types of one-way functions. In particular, very simple and efficient pseudorandom generators are constructed based on the existence of one-way permutations. We highlight the hybrid technique , which plays a central role in many of the proofs. (For the first use and further discussion of this technique, see Section 3.2.3.) Organization . Basic discussions, definitions, and constructions of pseudorandom generators appear in Sections 3.1–3.4: We start with a motivating discussion (Section 3.1), proceed with a general definition of computational indistinguishability (Section 3.2) next present and discuss definitions of pseudorandom generators (Section 3.3), and finally present some simple constructions (Section 3.4). More general constructions are discussed in Section 3.5.