Blockchain Papers

Ye Liu, Mingwen Yang, Matthias Pelster, Yong Tan

No abstract is available for this record.

Wenqian Zhu, Di Fan, S. C. Wang

No abstract is available for this record.

Efstathios Polyzos, Ghulame Rubbaniy, Mieszko Mazur

Abstract This paper proposes the use of social media as a proxy for financial information. Using an extended sample of 53,580,759 tweets and employing text analysis tools (Latent Dirichlet Allocation and Term Frequency–Inverse Document Frequency), we determine the information being exchanged on any given day. We train machine‐learning classifiers and forecast crypto price movements for more than 8000 cryptocurrencies and gauge market efficiency through successful forecasts based on public information. We propose various metrics of market efficiency for cryptocurrency assets and demonstrate that market efficiency is higher during the first 6 months after the Initial Coin Offering. We also examine the efficiency behavior of individual currencies during crisis periods.

Annika Bengts, Ville Eloranta, Esko Hakanen, Taija Turunen · 5 authors

Business models integrate activities for value creation and capture. While ecosystems have emerged as potent catalysts for value creation through collaborative innovation, the common understanding is that value capture occurs within individual firms. This paper challenges this dichotomy. In an empirical study using a polar types case approach, we first illustrate how two ecosystems employ decentralization technology, specifically blockchain-based Web3 platforms, to elevate value capture to the ecosystem level. We then outline the implications beyond the blockchain domain using two non-Web3 cases. Specifically, we show—from the perspectives of value proposition, value constellation, and profit equation—how business models can rise to the ecosystem level.

Mohamad Sadegh Sangari, Atefeh Mashatan

Abstract Despite the extensive interest in cryptocurrencies over the past years, their application as a means of payment in e‐commerce and retail purchases continues to be much slower than anticipated. This paper investigates the underlying mechanisms and elements that drive consumer resistance in this space. Drawing upon the stimulus‐organism‐response paradigm and the innovation resistance theory, the paper explores how the characteristics of the current cryptocurrency landscape contribute to different factors associated with crypto‐payment rejection. Our findings from empirical and experimental studies reveal how ecosystem volatility and the lack of structural assurances for cryptocurrencies foster negative consumer perceptions, leading to resistance against crypto‐payment use. The paper develops new insights into the main predictors of consumer resistance to crypto‐payment, which is a precursor to the mainstream use of cryptocurrencies. Moreover, it sheds light on the interactions among context‐specific, psychological, and functional determinants of behavioral consumer response.

Tanya Araújo, Paulo S. F. Barbosa

Abstract The growing attention on cryptocurrencies has led to increasing research on digital stock markets. Approaches and tools usually applied to characterize standard stocks have been applied to the digital ones. Among these tools is the identification of processes of market fluctuations. Being interesting stochastic processes, the usual statistical methods are appropriate tools for their reconstruction. There, besides chance, the description of a behavioural component shall be present whenever a deterministic pattern is ever found. Markov approaches are at the leading edge of this endeavour. In this paper, Markov chains of orders one to eight are considered as a way to forecast the dynamics of three major cryptocurrencies. It is accomplished using an empirical basis of intra-day returns. Besides forecasting, we investigate the existence of eventual long-memory components in each of those stochastic processes. Results show that predictions obtained from using the empirical probabilities are better than random choices.

Nguyen Hoang Hai, Pham Thi Bich Ngoc, Pham Thanh Binh, Luu Ngoc Hiep

This paper examines factors affecting the adoption of cryptocurrency across 158 countries worldwide. To this end, we collected cryptocurrency adoption data from Chainalysis’s reports and macroeconomic data from the World Development Indicators platform. We find that greater import volumes, larger population size, more sufficient levels of the labor force, higher unemployment rate, and a higher level of electricity access are associated with a greater level of cryptocurrency adoption. On the other hand, a higher level of government spending and a greater level of domestic savings are associated with a lower level of cryptocurrency adoption. In addition, we also find that the population size and level of the labor force have a negative impact on the three subcomponents of the cryptocurrency adoption index including (i) centralized service value received (CeFi); (ii) the volume of exchange trading (P2P); and (iii) the received DeFi value (DeFi). We find that while the import volumes and level of electricity access have an opposite relationship with the centralized service value received and the DeFi value received, GDP has a negative effect on the DeFi value received. Meanwhile, greater government spending and higher domestic savings are associated with a greater level of exchange trade volume P2P. In terms of urbanization, whereas it shows a positive impact on the exchange trade volume P2P, it has the opposite effect on the DeFi value received.

Changjuan Zheng, Xu Huang, Ying Xu

The use of blockchain technology can ensure that data remains untampered with once it is on the chain. However, it doesn’t guarantee the authenticity of data before it enters the chain. In this study, we developed a three-party dynamic evolutionary game model involving core enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and financial institutions. Our findings indicate that a blockchain supply chain (BSC) generates more economic benefits than a traditional supply chain (TSC). We then built a dynamic evolutionary game model between core enterprises and SMEs, which revealed that SMEs are influenced by core enterprises and tend to adopt the action strategies of the latter. Additionally, we developed a dynamic evolutionary game model between core enterprises and financial institutions and compared the reward and punishment mechanisms with the synergy payoff mechanism. In the reward and punishment mechanisms, the game is a zero-sum game, where one party’s gains come at the expense of the other party. This mechanism has certain limitations and must meet specific conditions to improve the willingness of enterprises to share data. On the other hand, the synergy payoff mechanism enhances the authenticity of shared data by increasing the payoff for participants. When core enterprises play games with SMEs, the probability of core enterprises uploading real data and the distribution ratio of synergy payoff show an inverted U-shape. Similarly, core enterprises and financial institutions have comparable results in allocating synergy payoff. To leverage the synergy payoff mechanism, the distribution proportion of players participating in the synergy payoff should be considered fair. Finally, we validated our findings by simulating the models. If we can use blockchain technology to enhance the mutual trust between enterprises and banks, both banks and enterprises can achieve sustainable development.

Muhammad Abubakr Naeem, Raazia Gul, Saqib Farid, Sitara Karim · 5 authors

Surmounted environmental concerns and energy challenges have created an augmented awareness among the public and policymakers about alternate energy resources. Using a network approach, this paper aims to investigate the dependence between cryptocurrencies and the alternative energy market using data from January 1, 2018, to December 23, 2021. For this investigation, first, we build a static dependency network for a given set of variables using partial correlations. Then, we demonstrate within-system connections in a minimum spanning tree (MST) to assess the centrality of all variables. Finally, rolling-window estimations are made to exhibit time variations in both dependency and centrality networks. We find that clean alternative markets (SPGCE, ELEVHC & WILCE) and ETH are net risk transmitters to other markets and system-wide net contributors. We also demonstrate how SPGCE is essential for tying together the various parts of the networks and provide convincing evidence of time-varying within-system dependency. Our thorough examination of the dependency analysis offers significant insights to macroprudential regulators, policymakers, and portfolio managers, enabling them to safeguard the most vulnerable markets and choose the best legislative and policy measures to protect investors' interests in the face of unforeseen financial and economic conditions.

Wei Guan, Wenhong Ding, Bobo Zhang, Jérôme Verny · 5 authors

No abstract is available for this record.

Ikkou Okubo, Kensuke Ito, Kyohei Shibano, Gento Mogi

Non-fungible token (NFT) bubbles are a problematic issue, and this study aims to predict NFT bubbles using an extended log-periodic power law singularity (LPPLS) model. The classic LPPLS model targets the endogenous nature of bubbles caused by the mimetic behavior of investors without external influences; however, the extended model attempts to incorporate exogenous influences. First, we compare the performance of the two models for NFT price prediction. The exogeneous variable in the extended model is cryptocurrency volatility. Then, we calculate the bubble confidence using both models. The results show that the explanatory power and forecasting accuracy of the extended model are superior in all projects. We also find that the bubble confidence indicator reinforces the results of bubble prediction.

Yogesh K. Dwivedi, Janarthanan Balakrishnan, Ronnie Das, Vincent Dutot

Blockchain research is significantly growing, yet the practical implementation of blockchain among retailers is still in the novice stage. This research aims to study the underlying factors that build resistance toward blockchain among retailers. The study has used innovation resistance theory (IRT) and the dynamic capability model to build the conceptual model. The study used a single cross-sectional design to investigate the proposed model with data collected from 360 retailers. The data were analysed using structural equation modelling estimated with the maximum likelihood model. The study's results showed that the threat of data ownership is the most significant factor that builds resistance towards blockchain, followed by threat severity. The results also showed that managerial capability and innovation capability could indirectly influence the relationship of IRT variables to resistance towards blockchain. The research extends the knowledge in the blockchain and contributes to relevant literature and business practitioners concerned with the results.

Larry Mweetwa, Austin Mwange

A review of a selected theories that influence the adoption of technology will serve as the objective of this paper. In this work, we attempt to discover traits that might improve the possibility of acceptance and ongoing usage of technology such as cryptocurrency adoption. More specifically, we focused on Rogers' Innovation Diffusion Theory (IDT, Theory of Technology Acceptance (TAT), and Technology Acceptance Model. (TAM)/TAM2/TAM3, Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA), Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT), and Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). When researching the tendency of individuals to adopt certain technologies, researchers draw from a wide variety of conceptual frameworks and analytical approaches. In this review, social psychology and its applied notions have been utilised most frequently. As a primary theoretical foundation, the theories centre on people's intentions to engage in a specific behaviour (i.e., adopt and utilise ICT), which is the emphasis of the theories. Research on the adoption and usage of information and communication technologies has made extensive use of both the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) and the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). They are two of the key intention-based theories, which means they give the core theoretical underpinnings for other adoption theories, such as the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and the Enhanced Technology Acceptance Model. Both the transpersonal relationship analysis and the transpersonal behaviour analysis begin with the fundamental premise that individuals deliberately choose whether or not they will engage in a certain behaviour. In this sense, the adoption and usage intentions are typically seen of as a primary outcome variable that is influenced by a variety of independent variables. This is because of the way that they are typically studied. In the following, we will discuss significant theories regarding the adoption of technology.

Juan Ignacio Ibañez

No abstract is available for this record.

Richard De Freitas Pinto, Viviane Fagundes de [UNESP] Mattos, Luiz Ricardo Nakamura

Esse trabalho apresenta a modelagem do volume mensal de transações da criptmoeda Ethereum por meio da metodologia de Box-Jenkins, envolvendo as etapas: análise exploratória, identificação, estimação e validação, algumas das quais executadas com a utilização de diferentes técnicas. O modelo encontrado pela modelagem SARIMA (Modelo autoregressivo integrado de médias móveis sazonal) conseguiu descrever o comportamento linear dos dados de forma satisfatória, mas não foi suficiente para descrever o comportamento da série, composta por movimento linear e não linear, sendo melhor representada por um modelo híbrido.

Taqwa Hariguna, Athapol Ruangkanjanases, Bakri Bin Madon, Khaled Mofawiz Alfawaz

The paradigm of currency has shifted today in which the transformation from conventional currency to digitalization is getting higher lately. Cryptocurrency is one form of digital currency today. Cryptocurrencies is developed based on blockchain technology. The existence of cryptocurrency makes it a new and popular transaction model among its users, community, industry, and government. This is crucial study to measure the level of acceptability of cryptocurrency to understand the level of users’ sustainability in the future. Through the expectation confirmation model (ECM), this study develops the integration concept between ECM and technology readiness (TR). The method employed to measure the results of the hypothesis in this study was structural equation modeling. There are nine hypotheses proposed in the present study. Of the nine tested hypotheses, it was found that there are eight accepted hypotheses which are positive and have significance, while one hypothesis was rejected. The results of this study can be used as a guide and understanding of cryptocurrencies and the continued use of cryptocurrencies.

Ziqiao Ao, Jiayi Li, Haoxin Yu

Ethereum has recently surged in popularity, as it can hold various digital tokens and decentralized applications.This paper aims to predict UNI's price in USD through dynamic network analysis and time-series analysis.Previous research in this field rarely considers comprehensive network analysis while predicting token price.This paper puts forward a strengthened Bidirectional LSTM model that includes token economical features and network features.We use Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) to verify the validity and compare it with other LSTM and GRU models on performance.Lastly, a logarithm difference method for data preprocessing was introduced to resolve the lag problems.

Carlos Bendicho, Daniel Bendicho

This article shows a brief history of Techno-Economic Assessment (TEA) in Communications, a proposed redefinition of TEA as well as the new challenges derived from a dynamic context with cloud-native virtualized networks, the Helium Network & alike blockchain-based decentralized networks, the new network as a platform (NaaP) paradigm, carbon pricing, network sharing, and web3, metaverse and blockchain technologies. The authors formulate the research question and show the need to improve TEA models to integrate and manage all this increasing complexity. This paper also proposes the characteristics TEA models should have and their current degree of compliance for several use cases: 5G and beyond, software-defined wide area network (SD-WAN), secure access service edge (SASE), secure service edge (SSE), and cloud cybersecurity risk assessment. The authors also present TEA extensibility to request for proposals (RFP) processes and other industries, to conclude that there is an urgent need for agile and effective TEA in Comms that allows industrialization of agile decision-making for all market stakeholders to choose the optimal solution for any technology, scenario and use case.

Christian Nedu Osakwe, Michael D. Dzandu, Hayford Amegbe, Mohammed Hersi Warsame · 5 authors

This study seeks to investigate the psychological antecedents toward cryptocurrency investment decision-making. Using extended planned behavior model, data were collected from 517 sample respondents in Kenya and Ghana to test the proposed model. Specifically, we find that skepticism undermines willingness to invest in cryptocurrency via attitude toward cryptocurrency across the two countries studied. We also find that subjective norm and perceived self-efficacy positively influence attitude toward cryptocurrency that, in turn, positively influences willingness to invest in cryptocurrency. The positive relationship between trust disposition and attitude toward cryptocurrency and in turn willingness to invest in cryptocurrency is statistically valid in Kenya but not in Ghana. Contrary to expectations, no negative statistical effect of risk disposition on attitude toward cryptocurrency was found in the Kenya and Ghana sample. Overall, the presented findings in this study enrich empirical understanding about the psychological factors influencing attitude and individuals’ intentions to invest in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Litecoin.

Ruizhe Jia, Steven Yin

We study the competition between blockchains in a \emph{multi-chain} environment, where a dominant EVM-compatible blockchain (e.g., Ethereum) co-exists with an alternative EVM-compatible (e.g., Avalanche) and an EVM-incompatible (e.g., Algorand) blockchain. While EVM compatibility allows existing Ethereum users and developers to migrate more easily over to the alternative layer-1, EVM incompatibility might allow the firms to build more loyal and ``sticky'' user base, and in turn a more robust ecosystem. As such, the choice to be EVM-compatible is not merely a technological decision, but also an important strategic decision. In this paper, we develop a game theoretic model to study this competitive dynamic, and find that at equilibrium, new entrants/developers tend to adopt the dominant blockchain. To avoid adoption failure, the alternative blockchains have to either (1) directly subsidize the new entrant firms or (2) offer better features, which in practice can take form in lower transaction costs, faster finality, or larger network effects. We find that it is easier for EVM-compatible blockchains to attract users through direct subsidy, while it is more efficient for EVM-incompatible blockchains to attract users through offering better features/products.

Xiaoyu Wan, Jia Liu, Siqi Zhao

Changes in the online car-hailing industry have brought new challenges to government governance. Effectively enhancing governance efficiency has become the focus of academic research. Based on the technical governance perspective, this paper introduces the consortium blockchain to construct an evolutionary game model between the online car-hailing platform and the government under blockchain technology. By solving the replicated dynamic equations and the Jacobian matrix, the influences of the change in initial conditions and decision parameters on the evolutionary stability results are revealed, and numerical experiments are carried out by using the Python programming language. This paper claims that the system presents three evolutionary stable results and a periodic stochastic state when the key parameters are located in different thresholds. The additional cost of the platform's negative regulation and the government's punishment intensity have a positive effect on the evolution of the system to the ideal state (active regulation, active governance). Platform technology R&D cost and government innovation input have a negative effect on the evolution of the system to the ideal state. Therefore, using blockchain to increase the additional cost of the platform's negative regulation, appropriately increasing the government's punishment intensity, reasonably controlling the government's innovation input to the platform, and reducing the technology R&D cost of the platform will help the system evolve into an ideal state. This paper provides useful references to implement effective governance and the innovative and healthy development of the online car-hailing industry.

Pavel Baboshkin, Alexey Mikhaylov, Zaffar Ahmed Shaikh

Due to the youth of the cryptocurrency sphere, the logic of interaction between investors, users and protocols is not always precisely defined. Analysis of the impact of ESG on cryptocurrencies proves that the demand for bitcoin network capacity (occupies the main market share) is the main factor in predicting the price of this cryptocurrency and the cryptocurrency market as a whole. The choice of the statistical method of analysis is determined by the purpose of statistically justified determination of the relationship of the data under consideration, and the reliability of the analysis is checked using Fischer and Student tests. In this paper, several innovations are proposed to solve the problem of energy dependence of cryptocurrencies: firstly, the analysis of cryptocurrencies in the paradigm of sustainable development (taking into account the consumption of a huge amount of energy for the functioning of cryptocurrency systems); secondly, feedback logic to explain the interaction of subjects, including the following parties: users, developers, network infrastructure and their interaction; thirdly, statistical analysis with the creation of artificial variables from real data and iterative improvement of the model. This paper proves that sustainable cryptocurrency growth is impossible when viewed from the perspective of “Green Economics” by Molly Scott Cato. The author's approach is relevant compared to other methods of linear transformations for creating artificial variables by selecting data using the VIF test. As a result, several versions of models were obtained using various combinations of the initially proposed factors, on the basis of which the nature of the greatest influence on the price of bitcoin was established in the form of technical factors and energy infrastructure needs.

Alberto Partida, Saki Gerassis, Regino Criado, Miguel Romance · 6 authors

In this article, we model the two most market-capitalised public, open and permissionless blockchain implementations, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), as a System of Systems (SoS) of public blockchains. We study the concepts of blockchain, BTC, ETH, complex networks, SoS Engineering and intentional risk. We analyse BTC and ETH from an open SoS perspective through the main properties that seminal System of Systems Engineering (SoSE) references propose. This article demonstrates that these public blockchain implementations create networks that grow in complexity and connect with each other. We propose a methodology based on a complexity management lever such as SoSE to better understand public blockchains such as BTC and ETH and manage their evolution. Our ultimate objective is to improve the resilience of public blockchains against intentional risk: a key requirement for their mass adoption. We conclude with specific measures, based on this novel systems engineering approach, to effectively improve the resilience against intentional risk of the open SoS of public blockchains, composed of a non-inflationary money system, “sound money”, such as BTC, and of a world financial computer system, “a financial conduit”, such as ETH. The goal of this paper is to formulate a SoS that transfers digital value and aspires to position itself as a distributed alternative to the fiat currency-based financial system.

Dongna Zhang, Xihui Haviour Chen, Chi Keung Marco Lau, Bing Xu

No abstract is available for this record.