Nektarios Aslanidis, Aurelio F. Bariviera, Oscar Martínez
This letter explores the behavior of conditional correlations among main cryptocurrencies, stock and bond indices, and gold, using a generalized DCC class model. From a portfolio management point of view, asset correlation is a key metric in order to construct efficient portfolios. We find that: (i) correlations among cryptocurrencies are positive, albeit varying across time; (ii) correlations with Monero are more stable across time; (iii) correlations between cryptocurrencies and traditional financial assets are negligible.
Abstract We present stylized facts on the asset pricing properties of cryptocurrencies: summary statistics on cryptocurrency return properties and measures of common variation for secondary market returns on 222 digital coins. In our sample, secondary market returns of all other currencies are strongly correlated with Bitcoin returns. We also provide some investment characteristics of a sample of 64 initial coin offerings.
This paper aims to elucidate the connectedness between major forex currencies and cryptocurrencies using the quantile cross-spectral approach recently proposed by Baruník and Kley (2015). The sample covers six forex currencies and six cryptocurrencies over the period of 1 September 2015 to 29 December 2017. Compared with the results obtained from standard correlations and detrended moving-average cross-correlation analysis (DMCA), the quantile cross-spectral approach provides richer information on the dependence structure across different quantiles and frequencies. The most interesting result is that the intra-group dependencies are positive in the lower extreme quantiles, while inter-group dependencies are negative. This result holds in both the short- and long-term perspectives. Thus, it is worth diversifying between these two currency groups.
Nowadays, blockchain has become one of the most cutting-edge technologies, which has been widely concerned and researched. However, the quantum computing attack seriously threatens the security of blockchain, and related research is still less. Targeting at this issue, in this paper, we present the definition of post-quantum blockchain (PQB) and propose a secure cryptocurrency scheme based on PQB, which can resist quantum computing attacks. First, we propose a signature scheme based on lattice problem. We use lattice basis delegation algorithm to generate secret keys with selecting a random value, and sign message by preimage sampling algorithm. In addition, we design the first-signature and last-signature in our scheme, which are defined as double-signature. It is used to reduce the correlation between the message and the signature. Second, by combining the proposed signature scheme with blockchain, we construct the PQB and propose this cryptocurrency scheme. Its security can be reduced to the lattice short integer solution (SIS) problem. At last, through our analysis, the proposed cryptocurrency scheme is able to resist the quantum computing attack and its signature satisfies correctness and one-more unforgeability under the lattice SIS assumption. Furthermore, compared with previous signature schemes, the sizes of signature and secret keys are relatively shorter than that of others, which can decrease the computational complexity. These make our cryptocurrency scheme more secure and efficient.
Jethin Abraham, Daniel Higdon, John B. Nelson, Juan G. Ibarra
In this paper, we present a method for predicting changes in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices utilizing Twitter data and Google Trends data. Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two largest cryptocurrencies in terms of market capitalization represent over \$160 billion dollars in combined value. However, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced significant price swings on both daily and long term valuations. Twitter is increasingly used as a news source influencing purchase decisions by informing users of the currency and its increasing popularity. As a result, quickly understanding the impact of tweets on price direction can provide a purchasing and selling advantage to a cryptocurrency user or a trader. By analyzing tweets, we found that tweet volume, rather than tweet sentiment (which is invariably overall positive regardless of price direction), is a predictor of price direction. By utilizing a linear model that takes as input tweets and Google Trends data, we were able to accurately predict the direction of price changes. By utilizing this model, a person is able to make better informed purchase and selling decisions related to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
We use the GARCH-MIDAS model to extract the long- and short-term volatility components of cryptocurrencies. As potential drivers of Bitcoin volatility, we consider measures of volatility and risk in the US stock market as well as a measure of global economic activity. We find that S&P 500 realized volatility has a negative and highly significant effect on long-term Bitcoin volatility. The finding is atypical for volatility co-movements across financial markets. Moreover, we find that the S&P 500 volatility risk premium has a significantly positive effect on long-term Bitcoin volatility. Finally, we find a strong positive association between the Baltic dry index and long-term Bitcoin volatility. This result shows that Bitcoin volatility is closely linked to global economic activity. Overall, our findings can be used to construct improved forecasts of long-term Bitcoin volatility.
Abstract We document numerous occurrences of pump-and-dump schemes (P&Ds) targeting cryptocurrencies, which tend to trigger short-term episodes that feature dramatic increases in prices, volume, and volatility, followed by quick reversals. The evidence we document, including price run-ups before P&Ds start, suggests wealth transfers from outsiders to insiders. Our findings based on wallet-level data are consistent with the reasoning that gambling preferences, overconfidence, and naïve reinforcement learning help explain P&D participation. Finally, exploiting two natural experiments in which exchanges altered P&D policies, we find evidence consistent with the idea that P&Ds contribute to reduced cryptocurrency liquidity and lower prices.
Laura Alessandretti, Abeer ElBahrawy, Luca Maria Aiello, Andrea Baronchelli
Machine learning and AI-assisted trading have attracted growing interest for the past few years. Here, we use this approach to test the hypothesis that the inefficiency of the cryptocurrency market can be exploited to generate abnormal profits. We analyse daily data for $1,681$ cryptocurrencies for the period between Nov. 2015 and Apr. 2018. We show that simple trading strategies assisted by state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms outperform standard benchmarks. Our results show that nontrivial, but ultimately simple, algorithmic mechanisms can help anticipate the short-term evolution of the cryptocurrency market.
Abstract We establish that cryptocurrency returns are driven and can be predicted by factors that are specific to cryptocurrency markets. Cryptocurrency returns are exposed to cryptocurrency network factors but not cryptocurrency production factors. We construct the network factors to capture the user adoption of cryptocurrencies and the production factors to proxy for the costs of cryptocurrency production. Moreover, there is a strong time-series momentum effect, and proxies for investor attention strongly forecast future cryptocurrency returns.
Blockchain-based distributed computing platforms enable the trusted execution of computation - defined in the form of smart contracts - without trusted agents. Smart contracts are envisioned to have a variety of applications, ranging from financial to IoT asset tracking. Unfortunately, the development of smart contracts has proven to be extremely error prone. In practice, contracts are riddled with security vulnerabilities comprising a critical issue since bugs are by design non-fixable and contracts may handle financial assets of significant value. To facilitate the development of secure smart contracts, we have created the FSolidM framework, which allows developers to define contracts as finite state machines (FSMs) with rigorous and clear semantics. FSolidM provides an easy-to-use graphical editor for specifying FSMs, a code generator for creating Ethereum smart contracts, and a set of plugins that developers may add to their FSMs to enhance security and functionality.
Alex Biryukov, Dmitry Khovratovich, Sergei Tikhomirov
Identity is a fundamental concept for the financial industry. In order to comply with regulation, financial institutions must verify the identity of their customers. Identities are currently handled in a centralized way, which diminishes users' control over their personal information and threats their privacy. Blockchain systems, especially those with support for smart contracts (e.g., Ethereum), are expected to serve as a basis of more decentralized systems for digital identity management. We propose a design of a privacy-preserving KYC scheme on top of Ethereum. It would let providers of financial services leverage the potential of blockchain technology to increase effciency of customer onboarding while complying with regulation and protecting users' privacy.
Elvira Albert, Pablo Gordillo, Benjamin Livshits, Albert Rubio · 5 authors
Analyzing Ethereum bytecode, rather than the source code from which it was generated, is a necessity when: (1) the source code is not available (e.g., the blockchain only stores the bytecode), (2) the information to be gathered in the analysis is only visible at the level of bytecode (e.g., gas consumption is specified at the level of EVM instructions), (3) the analysis results may be affected by optimizations performed by the compiler (thus the analysis should be done ideally after compilation). This paper presents EthIR, a framework for analyzing Ethereum bytecode, which relies on (an extension of) OYENTE, a tool that generates CFGs; EthIR produces from the CFGs, a rule-based representation (RBR) of the bytecode that enables the application of (existing) high-level analyses to infer properties of EVM code.
Ilya Grishchenko, Matteo Maffei, Clara Schneidewind
The recent growth of the blockchain technology market puts its main cryptocurrencies in the spotlight. Among them, Ethereum stands out due to its virtual machine (EVM) supporting smart contracts, i.e., distributed programs that control the flow of the digital currency Ether. Being written in a Turing complete language, Ethereum smart contracts allow for expressing a broad spectrum of financial applications. The price for this expressiveness, however, is a significant semantic complexity, which increases the risk of programming errors. Recent attacks exploiting bugs in smart contract implementations call for the design of formal verification techniques for smart contracts. This, however, requires rigorous semantic foundations, a formal characterization of the expected security properties, and dedicated abstraction techniques tailored to the specific EVM semantics. This work will overview the state-of-the-art in smart contract verification, covering formal semantics, security definitions, and verification tools. We will then focus on EtherTrust [ 1 ], a framework for the static analysis of Ethereum smart contracts which includes the first complete small-step semantics of EVM bytecode, the first formal characterization of a large class of security properties for smart contracts, and the first static analysis for EVM bytecode that comes with a proof of soundness.
There are several distributed ledger protocols potentially suitable for the Internet of things (IoT), including the Ethereum, Hyperledger Fabric and IOTA. This paper briefly presents and compares them from the IoT application development perspective. The IoT applications based on blockchain (BC) can incorporate the on-chain logic –the smart contracts– and Web, mobile or embedded client front-end application parts. We present three possible architectures for the IoT front-end BC applications. They differ in positioning of Ethereum blockchain clients (local device, remote server) and in positioning of key store needed for the management of outgoing transactions. The practical constraints of these architectures, which utilize the Ethereum network for trusted transaction exchange, are the data volumes, the location and synchronization of the full blockchain node and the location and the access to the Ethereum key store. Results of these experiments indicate that a full Ethereum node is not likely to reliably run on a constrained IoT devices. Therefore the architecture with remote Ethereum clients seems to be a viable approach, where two sub-options exist and differ in key store location/management. In addition, we proposed the use of architectures with a proprietary communication between the IoT device and remote blockchain client to further reduce the network traffic and enhance security. We expect it to be able to operate over low-power, low-bitrate mobile technologies, too. Our research clarifies differences in architectural approaches, but final decision for a particular ledger protocol and front-end application architecture is at strongly based on the particular intended use case.
Ilya Grishchenko, Matteo Maffei, Clara Schneidewind
Smart contracts are programs running on cryptocurrency (e.g., Ethereum) blockchains, whose popularity stem from the possibility to perform financial transactions, such as payments and auctions, in a distributed environment without need for any trusted third party. Given their financial nature, bugs or vulnerabilities in these programs may lead to catastrophic consequences, as witnessed by recent attacks. Unfortunately, programming smart contracts is a delicate task that requires strong expertise: Ethereum smart contracts are written in Solidity, a dedicated language resembling JavaScript, and shipped over the blockchain in the EVM bytecode format. In order to rigorously verify the security of smart contracts, it is of paramount importance to formalize their semantics as well as the security properties of interest, in particular at the level of the bytecode being executed. In this paper, we present the first complete small-step semantics of EVM bytecode, which we formalize in the F* proof assistant, obtaining executable code that we successfully validate against the official Ethereum test suite. Furthermore, we formally define for the first time a number of central security properties for smart contracts, such as call integrity, atomicity, and independence from miner controlled parameters. This formalization relies on a combination of hyper- and safety properties. Along this work, we identified various mistakes and imprecisions in existing semantics and verification tools for Ethereum smart contracts, thereby demonstrating once more the importance of rigorous semantic foundations for the design of security verification techniques.