This study aims to explore the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) effects on gold and bitcoin prices variabilities and on the relationship between each of them, both prices are denominated in USD.The study period is divided into two groups, first group included 120 workdays before 30 January 2020 when WHO first declared COIVD-19 outbreak as a public health emergency of international concern, and the second group included 120 observations post that date. The period as a total extends from June. 24, 2019 to 22 of May 2020.To this end, the study used the appropriate statistical tools including stationery and unit root test, Levene's test for the equality of variances, correlation, least squares regression, and pairwise Granger causality test.The results of testing the equality of variances and homogeneity between each of the study groups before and after COVID 19 revealed a strong rejection of the null hypothesis of equal variances for gold but not bitcoin which was accepted. The results also indicate a significant relationship between gold and bitcoin before and after COVID-19, but the sign changed from negative to positive respectively.Finally, the study concludes that there were significant effects of COIVD-19 on gold but not bitcoin prices. These results are consistent with gold’s traditional role as a safe-haven in crises, and bitcoin as a ‘virtual gold’ which has some similarities, and likely to be complementary rather than in a competion with gold.
Abstract The large energy consumption and the associated carbon emission of the Bitcoin blockchain operations are growing to a non-negligible problem that could potentially undermine the sustainable efforts of many countries around the world. In this paper, we make the first and original attempt to investigate the carbon emission flows of the Bitcoin blockchain operations in China under different carbon policies with a Bitcoin blockchain carbon emission (BBCE) model. We find that without any policy interventions, the annual energy consumption of the Bitcoin blockchain in China is expected to maximize in 2024 at 296.59 Twh and generate 130.50 million metric tons of carbon emission flows correspondingly, which would exceed the annualized greenhouse gas emission level of the Czech Republic and Portugal in 2016. Moreover, the maximum carbon emission per GDP of the Bitcoin industry is estimated to reach 10.77 kg/USD in June 2026 based on benchmark assessments. In addition, policies that induce changes in the energy consumption structure of the mining activities may be more effective than intuitive punitive measures in limiting the total amount of carbon emission in the Bitcoin blockchain operation. In particular, we find that market access policy has an incentive effect on the emission reduction of the Bitcoin industry. After evaluating the policy effectiveness, we provide some novel insights for the sustainable operations of the disruptive blockchain technology by analyzing the carbon emissions pattern of the Bitcoin blockchain.
Bu çalışma ile 2019 Aralık ayında Çin Halk Cumhuriyeti’nde ortaya çıkan ve 13 Ocak 2020 tarihinde Covid-19 olarak tanımlanan virüsün tüm Dünya’yı etkilemesi sonucunda, finansal piyasalarda yaşanan kırılma ve değişikliklerin incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Salgın öncesi dönemde yapılan eş bütünleşme analizi sonrası West Texas Ham Petrol fiyatı (WTI), Bitcoin (BTC) ve Euro/Dolar paritesi (EUR) değişkenlerinin aralarında eş bütünleşme ilişkisi olmadığı görülürken, salgın sonrası dönemde ise üç değişken arasında anlamlı bir eş bütünleşme hareketi olduğu belirlenmiştir. Yani, salgın öncesi aralarında eş bütünleşik bir hareket olmayan BTC, EUR ve WTI arasında ortak bir davranış şekli gelişmiş ve eş bütünleşik hareket etmeye başlamışlardır. Salgın öncesi ve sonrası seriler açısından ortalamaların önemli ölçüde değiştiği ve WTI’daki değişimin BTC’de değişimin bir nedeni olduğu, bunun yanı sıra EUR’daki değişiminde WTI fiyatının da bir değişikliğe neden olduğu görülmüştür. Ayrıca yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testlerinden Zivot-Andrews birim kök testi sonucunda, hem WTI hem BTC hem de EUR için covid-19 salgını başlangıcında her hangi bir yapısal kırılma olmadığı sonucuna varılmıştır. İlerleyen dönemde, söz konusu değişkenlerin birbirleriyle olan ilişkilerinin incelenmesi, gerçekleşen dönüşümün devamlılığını anlayabilmek açısından oldukça önemlidir.
Abdelkader Derbali, Lamia Jamel, Monia Ben Ltaifa, Ahmed K. Elnagar · 5 authors
Purpose This paper provides an important perspective to the predictive capacity of Fed and European Central Bank (ECB) meeting dates and production announcements for the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) between Bitcoin and energy commodities returns and volatilities during the period from August 11, 2015 to March 31, 2018. Design/methodology/approach To assess empirically the unanticipated component of the US and ECB monetary policy, the authors pursue the Kuttner's approach and use the federal funds futures and the ECB funds futures to assess the surprise component. The authors use the approach of DCC as introduced by Engle (2002) during the period from August 11, 2015 to March 31, 2018. Findings The authors’ results suggest strong significant DCCs between Bitcoin and energy commodity markets if monetary policy surprises are incorporated in variance. These results confirmed the financialization of Bitcoin and commodity energy markets. Finally, the DCC between Bitcoin and energy commodity markets appears to respond considerably more in the case of Fed surprises than ECB surprises. Originality/value This study is a crucial topic for policymakers and portfolio risk managers.
Muhandiramge Rodrigo, Srinath Perera, Sepani Senaratne, Xiaohua Jin
Carbon emissions are categorised as Embodied Carbon (EC) occurring in the production phase and Operational Carbon (OC) occurring in the operational phase of buildings. The current focus on producing zero-carbon buildings, emphasises reducing OC and ignores the importance of reducing EC emissions. This study focuses on EC. Methods available in EC estimating currently produce estimates that often do not complement each other. This makes it important to develop a robust and accurate methodology for estimating EC. Blockchain is an emerging technology that has significant potential for transaction processing in supply chains. The construction industry being the second least digitalised industry, the adoption of innovative technologies is predominantly important. This paper explores the potential application of blockchain for accurate estimation of EC in construction supply chains. A detailed literature review and expert interviews revealed that, compared to traditional information systems, blockchain systems could eliminate issues in EC estimating highlighting its potential credible application for EC estimating. Scalability was identified as a feature that was lacking in a blockchain system, however, for EC estimating, its impact was identified as minimal. It will be difficult to generalise the findings of the study due to interview based qualitative methodology adopted in this study along with the fact that blockchain is an emerging and fairly new technology. However, a similar process could be followed by other studies to compare blockchain with traditional information systems, to evaluate the suitability of blockchain technology to develop prototype systems.
Khánh Hoàng, Cuong Nguyen, Kongchheng Poch, Thang Xuan Nguyen
This paper examines the connectedness between Bitcoin and commodity volatilities, including oil, wheat, and corn, during the period Oct. 2013–Jun. 2018, using time- and frequency-domain frameworks. The time-domain framework’s results show that the connectedness is 23.49%, indicating a low level of connection between Bitcoin and the commodity volatilities. Bitcoin contributes only 2.55% to the connectedness, while the wheat volatility index accounts for 12.51% of the total connectedness. The frequency connectedness shows that Bitcoin’s contribution to the total connectedness increases from high-frequency to low-frequency bands, and the total connectedness reaches up to 22.47%. It also indicates that Bitcoin is the spillover transmitter to the wheat volatility, while being the spillover receiver from the oil and corn volatilities. The findings suggest that Bitcoin could be a hedger for commodity volatilities.
In the past two decades, land finance, a phenomenon of the financing arrangement based on land development, has gradually become a fiscal model that profoundly affects China's economic development. Based on the theory of fiscal decentralization and environmental federalism, this study employs a specially designed two-stage regression method to capture both direct and indirect (through economic development and industrial structure) influences of land finance on carbon emissions. Using the provincial panel data for the period of 1998–2016, the empirical results indicate that the direct influences are dominant, and the total impact of land finance on carbon emissions is non-linear and is dependent on the level of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. After 2003, the total effect is that carbon emissions increase continuously along with the economic development. To balance economic development and environmental protection and to enhance sustainable development, the traditional style of land finance should be changed as soon as possible.
Carbon credits should reduce the environmental pollution and carbon emission of the Earth in the future. The market for carbon credits will become a critical issue from 2021, and carbon credits will be applied to systems where individuals can trade. In order for these carbon credits to be traded between individuals, however, a corresponding exchange of carbon credits is needed. Policies, strategies, and technologies are also necessary to measure the trading of carbon credits. This paper aims at making transactions more reliable by applying blockchain technology to measure carbon emission rights. It uses blockchain to verify carbon emissions rights among the UN-SDGs’ (United Nations Sustainable Development Goals’) 17 tasks. In addition, it introduces the necessary dApp. In fact, we can protect against carbon emissions anomalies by using big data and artificial intelligence in mobile cloud environments. Thus, this paper proposes a blockchain-based carbon emission rights verification system to learn proven data further by using the governance system analysis and blockchain mainnet engine to solve these problems.
Anwar Hasan Abdullah Othman, Syed Musa Alhabshi, Salina Kassim, Adam Abdullah · 5 authors
Purpose This study uses the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) econometric approach to investigate empirically the effects of cryptocurrencies, the gold standard and traditional fiat money on global income inequality measured based on the Gini coefficient, and various ratios of income inequality distribution such as top 1 per cent, top 10 per cent, top 40 per cent and top 50 per cent. Design/methodology/approach The study uses the ARDL econometric approach. Findings The findings indicated that cryptocurrency and gold standard monetary systems contributed significantly to reducing global inequality of income and wealth distribution. Conversely, the traditional fiat money system contributes positively to global income and wealth inequality while also contributing significantly to their fluctuation. Practical implications This suggests that the fiat monetary system results in the coercive redistribution of income and wealth if governments pursue a social welfare policy. They must resolve this conflict between the current fiat monetary system and social policy by opting for an alternative monetary system such as cryptocurrency or gold standard. These alternative monetary systems offer the promise of resolving the income and wealth inequality associated with the traditional monetary system which are accompanied with the channels of inflation, lack of financial inclusion and debt creation, and to offer a more sustainable financial system. Originality/value The study recommends that monetary policy must be revisited to account for its direct effect on income and wealth redistribution to achieve social welfare goals.
Bitcoin is the digital currency of the digital economy. This article is an attempt to reveal the effects of policy uncertainty on Bitcoin returns with economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the US, the UK, Japan , China, and Hong Kong . Furthermore, we also present the results of monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) on the Bitcoin market. The robust estimations from the quantile regression and Markov regime-switching model show that Bitcoin returns are affected by EPU. One of the essential findings is that Bitcoin returns are more responsive to EPU in the US, China, and Japan. In the US and Japan, uncertainty has a negative effect on the Bitcoin market whereas in China it has a positive effect. Global MPU uncertainty is also significant in explaining Bitcoin exchange rates. Moreover, the Bitcoin market is negatively affected by uncertainty in Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the gross domestic product, and other macroeconomic data. Uncertainty in the equity market and Bitcoin returns are negatively associated.
Muhammad Abubakr Naeem, Mudassar Hasan, Muhammad Arif, Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad
We compare the hedging, safe-haven, and diversification potential of gold and Bitcoin for different investment styles and industry portfolios in the United States. We find that gold is at least a weak hedge for the style and industry portfolios except for utilities, energy, and telecom. The hedging potential of gold is comparatively higher for large-cap portfolios, whereas Bitcoin offers minimal hedging effectiveness. However, Bitcoin shows hedging potential for the noncyclical industries. Although investors need a higher amount of investment to hedge the downside risk using gold, it still is a superior hedging instrument compared with Bitcoin. Finally, the analysis using the conditional diversification approach shows that gold is a superior and stable diversifier for style and industry portfolios. Overall, our findings provide evidence of superior safe-haven and hedging potential of gold over Bitcoin.
Jéssica Paule-Vianez, Camilo Prado Román, Raúl Gómez-Martínez
Purpose The goal of this work is to determine whether Bitcoin behaves as a safe-haven asset. In order to do so, the influence of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on Bitcoin returns and volatility was studied. Design/methodology/approach It is evaluated whether, when compared with the evolution of EPU, Bitcoin's returns and volatility show behaviours typical of safe havens or rather, those of conventional speculative assets. When faced with an increase in EPU, safe havens – such as gold – can be expected to increase their returns and volatility, while conventional speculative assets will increase their volatility and reduce their returns. This study uses simple linear regression and quantile regression models on a daily data sample from 19 July 2010 to 11 April 2019, to analyse the influence of EPU on the returns and volatility of Bitcoin and gold. Findings Bitcoin's returns and volatility increase during more uncertain times, just like gold, showing that Bitcoin acts not only as a means of exchange but also shows characteristics of investment assets, specifically of safe havens. These findings provide useful information to investors by allowing Bitcoin to be considered as a tool to protect savings in times of economic uncertainty and to diversify portfolios. Originality/value This study complements and expands current research by aiming to answer the question of whether Bitcoin is a simple speculative asset or a safe haven. The most significant contribution is to show that Bitcoin is not a mere speculative asset but behaves like a safe haven.
Although business models presumably have a prominent role in socio-technical change remarkably little research has been conducted in this domain, more particularly in the context of developing economies. In this paper, we tap into this knowledge gap and study business model components and the challenges they face. We argue that the market value of renewable energy technologies will increase when new business models are implemented to overcome financial and institutional challenges. We complement concepts of the business model literature with the insights from the sustainable transitions literature. This paper addresses two research questions: What are the challenges of business and financial models in the transition towards decentralized solar energy driven systems? And what are the promising opportunities for new business models in a developing country context? To answer these research questions, we use a case study research design focusing on niche market development of solar thermal and solar photovoltaic (PV) technology in Lebanon. Data collection involved analysis of relevant text documents and expert interviews with 30 informants across different groups of stakeholders. Data analysis involved qualitative interpretation of collected data against concepts from the business model and Strategic Niche Management literatures. The results show that business model challenges initially were highly dependent on donor aid, which contributed to the launch and network creation of niche markets. Later, a shift to micro-finance and business startup models was observed, which showed promising development. Knowledge transfer and community empowerment were found to play an important role in developing new business models that involve consumers more closely. As this development is expected to take place more often, we expect that new opportunity pathways will develop in developing economies like Lebanon.
This paper suggests a model for optimization of societal carbon footprints one person at a time through the decentralization of electricity use and accounting. Our model describes steps involved with developing a decentralized accounting system considering electricity as a "credit product". While describing the basic characteristics of both schemes, we also emphasize capabilities of the proposed model for reducing carbon footprints from other societal choices, for example, purchasing water (energy-water nexus), managing waste, or designing sustainable transportation systems. A simple yet complex model involved with familiar societal financial systems' rules and routines is proposed for achieving a resilient, sustainable, and prosperous future. The proposed model calls for creating a dynamic society (as a system) that can be efficiently adopted to take on challenges threatening the function, survival, and future developments of the societies.
In recent years, the rapid development of blockchain technologies have attracted worldwide attention. Its application has been extended to many fields, such as digital finance, supply chain management, and digital asset transactions. For some enterprises and users, how to choose the most effective platform from many blockchains to control costs and share data is an important issue. To comprehensively evaluate the blockchain technologies, we first construct three-level evaluation indicators in terms of technical, market, and popularity indicators. Then, we propose an improved global DEA-Malmquist index without explicit inputs to assess the dynamic performance of blockchain technologies. Finally, we carry out an empirical analysis to evaluate 31 public blockchains' performance from May 2018 to April 2020. The results indicate that the overall performance of blockchain technologies is basically on the rise. Some blockchain technologies that have not yet received widespread attention have shown good dynamic performance.
Building on an economic model of rational Bitcoin mining, we measured the carbon footprint of Bitcoin mining power consumption using feed-forward neural networks. We found associated carbon footprints of 2.77, 16.08 and 14.99 MtCO2e for 2017, 2018 and 2019 based on a novel bottom-up approach, which (i) conform with recent estimates, (ii) lie within the economic model bounds while (iii) delivering much narrower prediction intervals and yet (iv) raise alarming concerns, given recent evidence (e.g., from climate–weather integrated models). We demonstrate how machine learning methods can contribute to not-for-profit pressing societal issues, such as global warming, where data complexity and availability can be overcome.