As a cornerstone of blockchain technology in the 3.0 era, smart contracts play a pivotal role in the evolution of blockchain systems. In order to address the limitations of existing smart contract vulnerability detection models with regard to their generalisation capability, an AF-STip smart contract vulnerability detection framework incorporating efficient knowledge migration is proposed. AF-STip employs the teacher network as the main model and migrates the knowledge processed by the smart contract to the student model using a data-free knowledge distillation method. The student model utilises this knowledge to enhance its vulnerability detection capabilities. The approach markedly enhances the model's capacity for feature extraction and cross-class adaptation, while concurrently reducing computational overhead.In order to further enhance the extraction of vulnerability features, an adaptive fusion module is proposed in this paper, which aims to strengthen the interaction and fusion of feature information.The experimental results demonstrate that the STip model attains an average F1 value detection score of 91.16% for the four vulnerabilities without disclosing the original smart contract data. To validate the viability of the proposed lightweight migration approach, the student model is deployed in a migration learning task targeting a novel vulnerability type, resulting in an accuracy of 91.02% and an F1 score of 90.46%. To the best of our knowledge, AF-STip is the inaugural model to apply data-free knowledge migration to smart contract vulnerability detection. While markedly reducing the computational overhead, the method still demonstrates exceptional performance in detecting novel vulnerabilities.
Cryptocurrencies fluctuate in markets with high price volatility, which becomes a great challenge for investors. To aid investors in making informed decisions, systems predicting cryptocurrency market movements have been developed, commonly framed as feature-driven regression problems that focus solely on historical patterns favored by domain experts. However, these methods overlook three critical factors that significantly influence the cryptocurrency market dynamics: 1) the macro investing environment, reflected in major cryptocurrency fluctuations, which can affect investors’ collaborative behaviors, 2) overall market sentiment, heavily influenced by news, which impacts investors’ strategies, and 3) technical indicators, which offer insights into overbought or oversold conditions, momentum, and market trends are often ignored despite their relevance in shaping short-term price movements. In this paper, we propose a dual prediction mechanism that enables the model to forecast the next day’s closing price by incorporating macroeconomic fluctuations, technical indicators, and individual cryptocurrency price changes. Furthermore, we introduce a novel refinement mechanism that enhances the prediction through market sentiment-based rescaling and fusion. In experiments, the proposed model achieves state-of-the-art performance (SOTA), consistently outperforming ten comparison methods in most cases. Our code and data can be found at https://github.com/aamitssharma07/SAL-Cryptopulse
Wansen Wang, Pu Zhang, Renjie Ji, Wenchao Huang · 6 authors
Some smart contracts violate decentralization principles by defining privileged accounts that manage other users' assets without permission, introducing centralization risks that have caused financial losses. Existing methods, however, face challenges in accurately detecting diverse centralization risks due to their dependence on predefined behavior patterns. In this paper, we propose JANUS, an automated analyzer for Solidity smart contracts that detects financial centralization risks independently of their specific behaviors. JANUS identifies differences between states reached by privileged and ordinary accounts, and analyzes whether these differences are finance-related. Focusing on the impact of risks rather than behaviors, JANUS achieves improved accuracy compared to existing tools and can uncover centralization risks with unknown patterns. To evaluate JANUS's performance, we compare it with other tools using a dataset of 540 contracts. Our evaluation demonstrates that JANUS outperforms representative tools in terms of detection accuracy for financial centralization risks . Additionally, we evaluate JANUS on a real-world dataset of 33,151 contracts, successfully identifying two types of risks that other tools fail to detect. We also prove that the state traversal method and variable summaries, which are used in JANUS to reduce the number of states to be compared, do not introduce false alarms or omissions in detection.
Shabnam Fazliani, Mohammad Mowlavi Sorond, Arsalan Masoudifard
The advent of smart contracts has enabled the rapid rise of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) on the Ethereum blockchain, offering substantial rewards in financial innovation and inclusivity. This growth, however, is accompanied by significant security risks such as illicit accounts engaged in fraud. Effective detection is further limited by the scarcity of labeled data and the evolving tactics of malicious accounts. To address these challenges with a robust solution for safeguarding the DeFi ecosystem, we propose $\textbf{SLEID}$, a $\textbf{S}$elf-$\textbf{L}$earning $\textbf{E}$nsemble-based $\textbf{I}$llicit account $\textbf{D}$etection framework. SLEID uses an Isolation Forest model for initial outlier detection and a self-training mechanism to iteratively generate pseudo-labels for unlabeled accounts, enhancing detection accuracy. Experiments on 6,903,860 Ethereum transactions with extensive DeFi interaction coverage demonstrate that SLEID significantly outperforms supervised and semi-supervised baselines with $\textbf{+2.56}$ percentage-point precision, comparable recall, and $\textbf{+0.90}$ percentage-point F1 -- particularly for the minority illicit class -- alongside $\textbf{+3.74}$ percentage-points higher accuracy and improvements in PR-AUC, while substantially reducing reliance on labeled data.
Elizabeth Lui, Rui Sun, Vatsal Shah, Xihan Xiong · 8 authors
Centralization enhances the efficiency of Artificial Intelligence (AI) but also introduces critical challenges, including single points of failure, inherent biases, data privacy risks, and scalability limitations. To address these issues, blockchain-based Decentralized Artificial Intelligence (DeAI) has emerged as a promising paradigm that leverages decentralization and transparency to improve the trustworthiness of AI systems. Despite rapid adoption in industry, the academic community lacks a systematic analysis of DeAI's technical foundations, opportunities, and challenges. This work presents the first Systematization of Knowledge (SoK) on DeAI, offering a formal definition, a taxonomy of existing solutions based on the AI lifecycle, and an in-depth investigation of the roles of blockchain in enabling secure and incentive-compatible collaboration. We further review security risks across the DeAI lifecycle and empirically evaluate representative mitigation techniques. Finally, we highlight open research challenges and future directions for advancing blockchain-based DeAI.
The Lightning Network (LN) has emerged as a second-layer solution to Bitcoin's scalability challenges. The rise of Payment Channel Networks (PCNs) and their specific mechanisms incentivize individuals to join the network for profit-making opportunities. According to the latest statistics, the total value locked within the Lightning Network is approximately \$500 million. Meanwhile, joining the LN with the profit-making incentives presents several obstacles, as it involves solving a complex combinatorial problem that encompasses both discrete and continuous control variables related to node selection and resource allocation, respectively. Current research inadequately captures the critical role of resource allocation and lacks realistic simulations of the LN routing mechanism. In this paper, we propose a Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) framework, enhanced by the power of transformers, to address the Joint Combinatorial Node Selection and Resource Allocation (JCNSRA) problem. We have improved upon an existing environment by introducing modules that enhance its routing mechanism, thereby narrowing the gap with the actual LN routing system and ensuring compatibility with the JCNSRA problem. We compare our model against several baselines and heuristics, demonstrating its superior performance across various settings. Additionally, we address concerns regarding centralization in the LN by deploying our agent within the network and monitoring the centrality measures of the evolved graph. Our findings suggest not only an absence of conflict between LN's decentralization goals and individuals' revenue-maximization incentives but also a positive association between the two.
Jimmy Cheung, Smruthi Rangarajan, Amelia Maddocks, Rohitash Chandra
Uncertainty quantification is crucial in time series prediction, and quantile regression offers a valuable mechanism for uncertainty quantification which is useful for extreme value forecasting. Although deep learning models have been prominent in multi-step ahead prediction, the development and evaluation of quantile deep learning models have been limited. We present a novel quantile regression deep learning framework for multi-step time series prediction. In this way, we elevate the capabilities of deep learning models by incorporating quantile regression, thus providing a more nuanced understanding of predictive values. We provide an implementation of prominent deep learning models for multi-step ahead time series prediction and evaluate their performance under high volatility and extreme conditions. We include multivariate and univariate modelling, strategies and provide a comparison with conventional deep learning models from the literature. Our models are tested on two cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and Ethereum, using daily close-price data and selected benchmark time series datasets. The results show that integrating a quantile loss function with deep learning provides additional predictions for selected quantiles without a loss in the prediction accuracy when compared to the literature. Our quantile model has the ability to handle volatility more effectively and provides additional information for decision-making and uncertainty quantification through the use of quantiles when compared to conventional deep learning models.
In modern times, the cryptocurrency market is one of the world's most rapidly rising financial markets. The cryptocurrency market is regarded to be more volatile and illiquid than traditional markets such as equities, foreign exchange, and commodities. The risk of this market creates an uncertain condition among the investors. The purpose of this research is to predict the magnitude of the risk factor of the cryptocurrency market. Risk factor is also called volatility. Our approach will assist people who invest in the cryptocurrency market by overcoming the problems and difficulties they experience. Our approach starts with calculating the risk factor of the cryptocurrency market from the existing parameters. In twenty elements of the cryptocurrency market, the risk factor has been predicted using different machine learning algorithms such as CNN, LSTM, BiLSTM, and GRU. All of the models have been applied to the calculated risk factor parameter. A new model has been developed to predict better than the existing models. Our proposed model gives the highest RMSE value of 1.3229 and the lowest RMSE value of 0.0089. Following our model, it will be easier for investors to trade in complicated and challenging financial assets like bitcoin, Ethereum, dogecoin, etc. Where the other existing models, the highest RMSE was 14.5092, and the lower was 0.02769. So, the proposed model performs much better than models with proper generalization. Using our approach, it will be easier for investors to trade in complicated and challenging financial assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin.
Triple Entry (TE) is an accounting method that utilizes three accounts or 'entries' to record each transaction, rather than the conventional double-entry bookkeeping system. Existing studies have found that TE accounting, with its additional layer of verification and disclosure of inter-organizational relationships, could help improve transparency in complex financial and supply chain transactions such as blockchain. Machine learning (ML) presents a promising avenue to augment the transparency advantages of TE accounting. By automating some of the data collection and analysis needed for TE bookkeeping, ML techniques have the potential to make this more transparent accounting method scalable for large organizations with complex international supply chains, further enhancing the visibility and trustworthiness of financial reporting. By leveraging ML algorithms, anomalies within distributed ledger data can be swiftly identified, flagging potential instances of fraud or errors. Furthermore, by delving into transaction relationships over time, ML can untangle intricate webs of transactions, shedding light on obscured dealings and adding an investigative dimension. This paper aims to demonstrate the interaction between TE and ML and how they can leverage transparency levels.
Bitcoin, launched in 2008 by Satoshi Nakamoto, established a new digital economy where value can be stored and transferred in a fully decentralized manner - alleviating the need for a central authority. This paper introduces a large scale dataset in the form of a transactions graph representing transactions between Bitcoin users along with a set of tasks and baselines. The graph includes 252 million nodes and 785 million edges, covering a time span of nearly 13 years of and 670 million transactions. Each node and edge is timestamped. As for supervised tasks we provide two labeled sets i. a 33,000 nodes based on entity type and ii. nearly 100,000 Bitcoin addresses labeled with an entity name and an entity type. This is the largest publicly available data set of bitcoin transactions designed to facilitate advanced research and exploration in this domain, overcoming the limitations of existing datasets. Various graph neural network models are trained to predict node labels, establishing a baseline for future research. In addition, several use cases are presented to demonstrate the dataset's applicability beyond Bitcoin analysis. Finally, all data and source code is made publicly available to enable reproducibility of the results.
The evolution of wireless communication systems will be fundamentally impacted by an open radio access network (O-RAN), a new concept defining an intelligent architecture with enhanced flexibility, openness, and the ability to slice services more efficiently. For all its promises, and like any technological advancement, O-RAN is not without risks that need to be carefully assessed and properly addressed to accelerate its wide adoption in future mobile networks. In this paper, we present an in-depth security analysis of the O-RAN architecture, discussing the potential threats that may arise in the different O-RAN architecture layers and their impact on the Confidentiality, Integrity, and Availability (CIA) triad. We also promote the potential of zero trust, Moving Target Defense (MTD), blockchain, and large language models(LLM) technologies in fortifying O-RAN's security posture. Furthermore, we numerically demonstrate the effectiveness of MTD in empowering robust deep reinforcement learning methods for dynamic network slice admission control in the O-RAN architecture. Moreover, we examine the effect of explainable AI (XAI) based on LLMs in securing the system.
This paper investigates the enhancement of financial time series forecasting with the use of neural networks through supervised autoencoders (SAE), to improve investment strategy performance. Using the Sharpe and Information Ratios, it specifically examines the impact of noise augmentation and triple barrier labeling on risk-adjusted returns. The study focuses on Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Ethereum as the traded assets from January 1, 2016, to April 30, 2022. Findings indicate that supervised autoencoders, with balanced noise augmentation and bottleneck size, significantly boost strategy effectiveness. However, excessive noise and large bottleneck sizes can impair performance.
With the increasing maturity and expansion of the cryptocurrency market, understanding and predicting its price fluctuations has become an important issue in the field of financial engineering. This article introduces an innovative Genetic Algorithm-generated Alpha Sentiment (GAS) blending ensemble model specifically designed to predict Bitcoin market trends. The model integrates advanced ensemble learning methods, feature selection algorithms, and in-depth sentiment analysis to effectively capture the complexity and variability of daily Bitcoin trading data. The GAS framework combines 34 Alpha factors with 8 news economic sentiment factors to provide deep insights into Bitcoin price fluctuations by accurately analyzing market sentiment and technical indicators. The core of this study is using a stacked model (including LightGBM, XGBoost, and Random Forest Classifier) for trend prediction which demonstrates excellent performance in traditional buy-and-hold strategies. In addition, this article also explores the effectiveness of using genetic algorithms to automate alpha factor construction as well as enhancing predictive models through sentiment analysis. Experimental results show that the GAS model performs competitively in daily Bitcoin trend prediction especially when analyzing highly volatile financial assets with rich data.
In this study, the novel hybrid machine learning approach is proposed in carbon price fluctuation prediction. Specifically, a research framework integrating DILATED Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network algorithm is proposed. The advantage of the combined framework is that it can make feature extraction more efficient. Then, based on the DILATED CNN-LSTM framework, the L1 and L2 parameter norm penalty as regularization method is adopted to predict. Referring to the characteristics of high correlation between energy indicator price and blockchain information in previous literature, and we primarily includes indicators related to blockchain information through regularization process. Based on the above methods, this paper uses a dataset containing an amount of data to carry out the carbon price prediction. The experimental results show that the DILATED CNN-LSTM framework is superior to the traditional CNN-LSTM architecture. Blockchain information can effectively predict the price. Since parameter norm penalty as regularization, Ridge Regression (RR) as L2 regularization is better than Smoothly Clipped Absolute Deviation Penalty (SCAD) as L1 regularization in price forecasting. Thus, the proposed RR-DILATED CNN-LSTM approach can effectively and accurately predict the fluctuation trend of the carbon price. Therefore, the new forecasting methods and theoretical ecology proposed in this study provide a new basis for trend prediction and evaluating digital assets policy represented by the carbon price for both the academia and practitioners.
This study explores the use of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) for real-time cryptocurrency price prediction and optimized trading strategies. Given the high volatility of the cryptocurrency market, traditional forecasting models often fall short. By leveraging RNNs' capability to capture long-term patterns in time-series data, this research aims to improve accuracy in price prediction and develop effective trading strategies. The project follows a structured approach involving data collection, preprocessing, and model refinement, followed by rigorous backtesting for profitability and risk assessment. This work contributes to both the academic and practical fields by providing a robust predictive model and optimized trading strategies that address the challenges of cryptocurrency trading.
Time series forecasting is a key tool in financial markets, helping to predict asset prices and guide investment decisions. In highly volatile markets, such as cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), forecasting becomes more difficult due to extreme price fluctuations driven by market sentiment, technological changes, and regulatory shifts. Traditionally, forecasting relied on statistical methods, but as markets became more complex, deep learning models like LSTM, Bi-LSTM, and the newer FinBERT-LSTM emerged to capture intricate patterns. Building upon recent advancements and addressing the volatility inherent in cryptocurrency markets, we propose a hybrid model that combines Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) networks with FinBERT to enhance forecasting accuracy for these assets. This approach fills a key gap in forecasting volatile financial markets by blending advanced time series models with sentiment analysis, offering valuable insights for investors and analysts navigating unpredictable markets.
One of the biggest challenges of building artificial intelligence (AI) model in the healthcare area is the data sharing. Since healthcare data is private, sensitive, and heterogeneous, collecting sufficient data for modelling is exhausting, costly, and sometimes impossible. In this paper, we propose a framework for global healthcare modelling using datasets from multi-continents (Europe, North America, and Asia) without sharing the local datasets, and choose glucose management as a study model to verify its effectiveness. Technically, blockchain-enabled federated learning is implemented with adaptation to meet the privacy and safety requirements of healthcare data, meanwhile, it rewards honest participation and penalizes malicious activities using its on-chain incentive mechanism. Experimental results show that the proposed framework is effective, efficient, and privacy-preserving. Its prediction accuracy consistently outperforms models trained on limited personal data and achieves comparable or even slightly better results than centralized training in certain scenarios, all while preserving data privacy. This work paves the way for international collaborations on healthcare projects, where additional data is crucial for reducing bias and providing benefits to humanity.
This study utilizes machine learning algorithms to analyze and organize knowledge in the field of algorithmic trading. By filtering a dataset of 136 million research papers, we identified 14,342 relevant articles published between 1956 and Q1 2020. We compare traditional practices-such as keyword-based algorithms and embedding techniques-with state-of-the-art topic modeling methods that employ dimensionality reduction and clustering. This comparison allows us to assess the popularity and evolution of different approaches and themes within algorithmic trading. We demonstrate the usefulness of Natural Language Processing (NLP) in the automatic extraction of knowledge, highlighting the new possibilities created by the latest iterations of Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT. The rationale for focusing on this topic stems from our analysis, which reveals that research articles on algorithmic trading are increasing at a faster rate than the overall number of publications. While stocks and main indices comprise more than half of all assets considered, certain asset classes, such as cryptocurrencies, exhibit a much stronger growth trend. Machine learning models have become the most popular methods in recent years. The study demonstrates the efficacy of LLMs in refining datasets and addressing intricate questions about the analyzed articles, such as comparing the efficiency of different models. Our research shows that by decomposing tasks into smaller components and incorporating reasoning steps, we can effectively tackle complex questions supported by case analyses. This approach contributes to a deeper understanding of algorithmic trading methodologies and underscores the potential of advanced NLP techniques in literature reviews.
Cryptocurrencies, as decentralized digital assets, have experienced rapid growth and adoption, with over 23,000 cryptocurrencies and a market capitalization nearing \$1.1 trillion (about \$3,400 per person in the US) as of 2023. This dynamic market presents significant opportunities and risks, highlighting the need for accurate price prediction models to manage volatility. This chapter comprehensively reviews machine learning (ML) techniques applied to cryptocurrency price prediction from 2014 to 2024. We explore various ML algorithms, including linear models, tree-based approaches, and advanced deep learning architectures such as transformers and large language models. Additionally, we examine the role of sentiment analysis in capturing market sentiment from textual data like social media posts and news articles to anticipate price fluctuations. With expertise in optimizing complex systems and processes, industrial engineers are pivotal in enhancing these models. They contribute by applying principles of process optimization, efficiency, and risk mitigation to improve computational performance and data management. This chapter highlights the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency price prediction, the integration of emerging technologies, and the significant role of industrial engineers in refining predictive models. By addressing current limitations and exploring future research directions, this chapter aims to advance the development of more accurate and robust prediction systems, supporting better-informed investment decisions and more stable market behavior.
Cryptocurrencies have gained significant attention in recent years due to their decentralized nature and potential for financial innovation. Thus, the ability to accurately predict its price has become a subject of great interest for investors, traders, and researchers. Some works in the literature show how Bitcoin's market sentiment correlates with its price fluctuations in the market. However, papers that consider the sentiment of the market associated with financial Technical Analysis indicators in order to predict Bitcoin's price are still scarce. In this paper, we present a novel approach for predicting Bitcoin price movements by combining the Fear & Greedy Index, a measure of market sentiment, Technical Analysis indicators, and the potential of Machine Learning algorithms. This work represents a preliminary study on the importance of sentiment metrics in cryptocurrency forecasting. Our initial experiments demonstrate promising results considering investment returns, surpassing the Buy & Hold baseline, and offering valuable insights about the combination of indicators of sentiment and market in a cryptocurrency prediction model.
We propose a new way of building portfolios of cryptocurrencies that provide good diversification properties to investors. First, we seek to filter these digital assets by creating some clusters based on their path signature. The goal is to identify similar patterns in the behavior of these highly volatile assets. Once such clusters have been built, we propose "optimal" portfolios by comparing the performances of such portfolios to a universe of unfiltered digital assets. Our intuition is that clustering based on path signatures will make it easier to capture the main trends and features of a group of cryptocurrencies, and allow parsimonious portfolios that reduce excessive transaction fees. Empirically, our assumptions seem to be satisfied.
We present a novel approach for predicting the distribution of asset returns using a quantile-based method with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Our model is designed in two stages: the first focuses on predicting the quantiles of normalized asset returns using asset-specific features, while the second stage incorporates market data to adjust these predictions for broader economic conditions. This results in a generalized model that can be applied across various asset classes, including commodities, cryptocurrencies, as well as synthetic datasets. The predicted quantiles are then converted into full probability distributions through kernel density estimation, allowing for more precise return distribution predictions and inferencing. The LSTM model significantly outperforms a linear quantile regression baseline by 98% and a dense neural network model by over 50%, showcasing its ability to capture complex patterns in financial return distributions across both synthetic and real-world data. By using exclusively asset-class-neutral features, our model achieves robust, generalizable results.
Yawen Li, Yan Li, Junping Du, Yingxia Shao · 6 authors
Personalized collaborative learning in federated settings faces a critical trade-off between customization and participant trust. Existing approaches typically rely on centralized coordinators or trusted peer groups, limiting their applicability in open, trust-averse environments. While recent decentralized methods explore anonymous knowledge sharing, they often lack global scalability and robust mechanisms against malicious peers. To bridge this gap, we propose TPFed, a \textit{Trust-free Personalized Decentralized Federated Learning} framework. TPFed replaces central aggregators with a blockchain-based bulletin board, enabling participants to dynamically select global communication partners based on Locality-Sensitive Hashing (LSH) and peer ranking. Crucially, we introduce an ``all-in-one'' knowledge distillation protocol that simultaneously handles knowledge transfer, model quality evaluation, and similarity verification via a public reference dataset. This design ensures secure, globally personalized collaboration without exposing local models or data. Extensive experiments demonstrate that TPFed significantly outperforms traditional federated baselines in both learning accuracy and system robustness against adversarial attacks.
Federated Learning (FL) is a widespread approach that allows training machine learning (ML) models with data distributed across multiple devices. In cross-silo FL, which often appears in domains like healthcare or finance, the number of participants is moderate, and each party typically represents a well-known organization. For instance, in medicine data owners are often hospitals or data hubs which are well-established entities. However, malicious parties may still attempt to disturb the training procedure in order to obtain certain benefits, for example, a biased result or a reduction in computational load. While one can easily detect a malicious agent when data used for training is public, the problem becomes much more acute when it is necessary to maintain the privacy of the training dataset. To address this issue, there is recently growing interest in developing verifiable protocols, where one can check that parties do not deviate from the training procedure and perform computations correctly. In this paper, we present a systematization of knowledge on verifiable cross-silo FL. We analyze various protocols, fit them in a taxonomy, and compare their efficiency and threat models. We also analyze Zero-Knowledge Proof (ZKP) schemes and discuss how their overall cost in a FL context can be minimized. Lastly, we identify research gaps and discuss potential directions for future scientific work.