Stability, Volatility and Structural Tension in Bitcoin Markets: An Exploratory Archive Framework Analysis

Abstract

This paper explores stability, volatility and structural change in Bitcoin using an Archive Framework that distinguishes between normal ("Archive") and abnormal ("Evental") market states. Using more than eleven years of daily Bitcoin data, the study investigates whether measures of structural tension help explain periods of market instability. While most predictive relationships prove weak after correcting for methodological bias, the analysis identifies a significant shift in Bitcoin's behaviour during the post-ETF era, characterised by lower realised volatility and substantially greater occupancy of structurally stable market states. The findings suggest that the principal value of the Archive Framework may lie in describing market regimes rather than predicting them.