The Political Economy of Financial Disintermediation: Understanding Fintech Adoption and Inclusion Through Cash and Bitcoin Usage

Abstract

Abstract Financial technologies (Fintech), such as digital payments, have become transformative economic tools. Yet despite technological advances and the documented benefits of financial inclusion, 1.3 billion adults remained unbanked in 2024, and cash persists globally. Why is fintech growth accompanied not by more intermediation but by persistent disintermediation (through cash and, increasingly, Bitcoin) that varies significantly across countries? I present a theory of disintermediation identifying three primary drivers: weak state capacity, underdeveloped infrastructure, and political institutions shaping citizens’ incentives regarding formal finance. The first two are supply-side factors: weak state capacity enables merchants to demand cash payments to avoid taxation, strengthening informal sectors, and lacking banking infrastructure raises the cost of intermediation. The third is a demand-side factor extending Hirschman’s ‘Exit, Voice, and Loyalty’ framework to finance: autocratic governance increases citizens’ exit from formal finance. I test this theory through two empirical analyses using two-way fixed effects, each capturing disintermediation within a different population: First, cash dependency among the broad population of economic actors in 158 countries, 2001–2020 ( n = 2760). Second, the choice of peer-to-peer over exchange-based channels among cryptocurrency users in 161 countries, 2019–2024 ( n = 921), using a novel dataset provided by Chainalysis, a market leader in blockchain intelligence. The two measures are deliberately not parallel: the cash analysis tests the theory on the broadest possible population, while the Bitcoin analysis tests whether the same institutional drivers predict the choice of disintermediated channels within the population of cryptocurrency users. Consistent results across populations this different indicate that the theorized mechanism is general rather than an artifact of either measure. Results are robust across estimators, including Callaway and Sant’Anna staggered difference-in-differences. Findings demonstrate that supply and demand drivers each shape disintermediation, and establish a research agenda investigating fintech adoption through financial disintermediation.