The Rise of Crypto Currency in Nigeria: An Analysis of Its Appeal, Growth and Risk Factors

Abstract

The rapid diffusion of crypto currency in Nigeria has attracted considerable attention from academics, practitioners, and policymakers. This study investigates the determinants of crypto-currency adoption, market growth, and price dynamics in Nigeria, with a particular focus on financial inclusion, regulatory environment, technological advancement, investor sentiment, and macroeconomic factors. The research objectives are (i) to assess the appeal and growth trajectory of crypto-currencies in Nigeria; (ii) to identify the risk factors that shape their evolution; and (iii) to derive policy-relevant insights for regulators and industry stakeholders. A quantitative approach was employed using quarterly data spanning 2012-2023 (N = 43). Five hypotheses were formulated and tested using a battery of time-series techniques: Granger-causality, unit-root tests, Johansen cointegration, and autoregressive distributed-lag (ARDL) modelling. The proxies for the independent variables were: number of crypto users, transaction volume, and number of exchanges (cryptocurrency adoption); number of regulatory approvals, regulatory clarity, and regulatory support (regulatory environment); internet penetration, mobile-phone adoption, and tech-startup count (technological advancement); social-media mentions, sentiment analysis, and investor-confidence index (investor sentiment); and GDP growth, inflation, and exchange rate (economic factors). Dependent variables included percentage of the population with financial-service access, number of bank accounts, mobile-money adoption (financial inclusion); market capitalization, trading volume, and new listings (crypto-market growth); standard deviation of price returns and frequency of price jumps (price volatility); and number of transactions and users (crypto demand). The empirical findings reveal a complex interplay among the variables. Granger-causality tests indicate bidirectional predictability between crypto currency adoption and financial inclusion, as well as unidirectional causality from regulatory environment, technological advancement, investor sentiment, and economic factors to their respective outcomes (p < 0.05). Unit-root tests confirm stationarity of all series (I(0)), justifying the use of cointegration analysis. Johansen tests detect at least one cointegrating vector for each hypothesis, suggesting long-run equilibria. ARDL models provide nuanced short-run dynamics: a 1 % improvement in regulatory quality raises market growth by 0.98 % (p < 0.001); technological advancement has a modest, borderline-significant short-run effect on adoption (p = 0.09); investor sentiment exhibits a contemporaneous calming effect on volatility followed by a lagged increase (p = 0.04); and economic factors display a near-unit elasticity (0.98, p < 0.001) with crypto demand in the short run but a negative long-run association, implying that sustained economic improvement may reduce crypto’s appeal. The study concludes that while regulatory clarity, technological infrastructure, and macroeconomic stability are pivotal in shaping the short-run trajectory of the Nigerian crypto market, their long-run impact can be ambivalent. Investor sentiment emerges as a significant driver of price volatility, underscoring the role of behavioural factors in this emerging asset class. The findings underscore the need for a balanced regulatory framework that encourages innovation while safeguarding financial stability, alongside targeted investments in digital infrastructure and financial-literacy programmes.