The Impact of Digital Currency Innovation: Risk Spillover Effects Between the Cryptocurrency and Traditional Financial Markets

Abstract

The rapid expansion of the digital currency market and the growing role of stablecoins as potential intermediaries have brought its interconnectedness with traditional financial markets to the forefront of global financial research. Using daily data from 4 January 2021 to 30 September 2025, this study constructs a variable system with the price indices of USDT and USDC as core digital currency proxies, alongside traditional financial asset indices for stocks, bonds, and gold derived via the entropy weight method. We employ a comprehensive set of econometric techniques, including static correlation analysis, vector autoregression (VAR), impulse response functions, and extreme-event shock tests, to systematically investigate the interdependence structure, risk spillover dynamics, time-varying co-movements, and structural changes between the two markets during extreme risk episodes. The findings reveal an overall weak and asymmetric bidirectional spillover relationship between the cryptocurrency and traditional financial markets. Volatility in the digital currency market is found to be largely endogenous, with a limited capacity to transmit shocks externally. Conversely, traditional financial markets—particularly the equity market—exert a more pronounced influence on the digital currency market. Critically, under the impact of extreme risk events, the cross-market linkages exhibit structural breaks; the direction and intensity of correlation can strengthen significantly or even reverse, demonstrating a clear state-dependency. This research provides empirical evidence for understanding the functional role of digital assets within the macro-financial system, their risk transmission pathways, and their implications for systemic financial stability. The findings offer valuable theoretical and practical insights for financial regulators in designing robust cross-market risk prevention frameworks and for investors seeking to optimize asset allocation strategies.