Myanmar's Post-Junta Political Equilibrium: A Probabilistic Scenario Analysis of Loose Federal Coalition Governance

Abstract

Since the 2021 military coup, Myanmar has been trapped in complex tri-polar power competition among the military junta, the National Unity Government (NUG) together with its People's Defense Force (PDF), and diverse ethnic-armed organizations. Existing literature frequently adopts binary deterministic forecasts, expecting either enduring military authoritarian rule or comprehensive national fragmentation. Such perspectives often overlook layered relationships between short-term battlefield capabilities and long-run political legitimacy, alongside pragmatic strategic logics held by major ethnic-armed groups. This paper argues that battlefield strength represents only a limited factor in regime transition, while popular mandate, nationwide governance ambition, and geopolitical constraints function as more structural determinants. Although the NUG-PDF bloc lacks immediate military capacity to seize central state authority, it constitutes the most plausible civilian successor, enjoying broad Bamar public support and institutional aspirations for national governance. Ethnic-armed organizations prioritize institutionalized regional autonomy rather than full secession. Under China's conditional geopolitical hedging strategy, Myanmar is likely to evolve toward a decentralized loose-federal equilibrium featuring weak central authority and highly autonomous ethnic regions. While large-scale infrastructure such as the China-Myanmar Railway faces substantial operational and fiscal uncertainties, strategically critical energy facilities including the Kyaukpyu Port and cross-border oil-gas pipelines may sustain stable operations via multi-stakeholder benefit-sharing arrangements.