The impact of cryptocurrency investors’ fairness preferences on their investment behavior and market volatility from the perspective of the ultimatum game: A quantitative study

Abstract

This study examines how fairness perceptions influence cryptocurrency investors and market behavior, using the Ultimatum Game as the conceptual anchor. We specify a framework that links distributive, procedural, and informational justice to buy and sell intentions, holding horizons, and community participation, with emotions such as anger and trust acting as mediators. To address the distinction between investor-level perceptions and market-level volatility, the revised design combines online survey responses with token-day trading data, event indicators, on-chain concentration measures, disclosure records, and community-activity proxies. Survey data are used to test individual behavioral and emotional channels, whereas market data are used to estimate abnormal returns, realized volatility, and difference-in-differences effects around fairness shocks. The revised analysis therefore avoids inferring market volatility directly from respondent opinions. Findings indicate that perceived unfairness raises selling intention and shortens holding horizons, while objectively observed fairness shocks are associated with higher realized volatility. Heterogeneity checks show stronger effects for assets with high decentralization and active communities. The study offers design levers for transparent rules, governance safeguards, and clear disclosure cadence.