Bitcoin Halving: How Effective Is It in Driving Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics?

Abstract

Bitcoin halving is a quadrennial event that halves mining rewards and is believed to influence cryptocurrency prices and cryptocurrency market dynamics. This study examines the effect of Bitcoin halving on Cryptocurrency Prices, with Government Regulations, Market Sentiment, and Cryptocurrency Performance as mediating variables. A quantitative research approach was employed, gathering original data via survey instruments from 294 participants within the cryptocurrency community in Bali, which were analyzed using PLS-SEM. The findings indicate that Bitcoin halving exerts a favorable and statistically meaningful influence on Government Regulations, Market Sentiment, Cryptocurrency Performance, and Cryptocurrency Prices. Market Sentiment fully mediates the influence of Government Regulations and Cryptocurrency Performance on Cryptocurrency Prices, while Government Regulations and Cryptocurrency Performance partially mediate the effect of Bitcoin halving. These findings highlight that Cryptocurrency Prices are shaped by the interplay of technical, policy, and psychological factors, with strategic implications for investors, regulators, and developers.