An application of deep learning on bitcoin price forecasting

Abstract

The long short-term memory (LSTM) network and a cutting-edge method that combines wavelet decomposition and LSTM (W-LSTM) were applied to deep learning in this study's analysis of Bitcoin's price and movement. To be specific, it predicted next day’s both price and price movement (trend) with historical data. The input of the model is close price itself, basic trading information, and technical indicators calculated solely on basic trading information. Large number of numerical experiments come to the same conclusion that: for price prediction, only close price as input obtains the best performance for regression, and minor improvement achieved after 1-order wavelet decomposition; for price movement, no improvement after changing the number of input features or with the model W-LSTM has been spotted for the same network structure and hyper-parameters, and enlarging time step and batch size will improve accuracy and Matthews correlation coefficient despite of number of input and model used in this paper.