Does mining activity drive crash risks in bitcoin?

Abstract

This paper explores the role of mining activity, proxied by growth rates of electricity consumption and cost of mining, as a driver of pricing inefficiencies in Bitcoin. Utilizing alternative measures of crash risk proxied by the realized negative coefficient of skewness and realized down-to-up volatility, derived from 5-minute intraday Bitcoin data, causality tests, along with sign analysis, captured by the estimates of partial average derivatives, provide evidence that mining activity can, in general, predict an increase in the entire conditional distribution of crash risk, with the strongest impact associated over the normal (median) to moderately high (upper quantiles) levels of risk. Despite the emergence of cryptocurrencies in international transactions and as an investment vehicle, our results suggest that decentralized mining process can contribute to inefficiencies in the pricing of Bitcoin, putting further doubt into the role of these assets as a medium of exchange, alternative to conventional assets.