Probability of Success of Narrative Research Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, and Technical Analysis in Cryptocurrency Trading (2021-2023)

Abstract

Research Aims: This study aims to examine the influence of narrative, fundamental, and technical analysis on the probability of successful cryptocurrency trading in Indonesia during the 2021-2023 period. The objective is to develop a predictive model that synthesizes all three analyses to improve trading decisions in the context of Indonesia’s volatile cryptocurrency market. Design/methodology/approach: The study adopts a quantitative approach to data collection and analysis, employing statistical models to assess the impact of narrative, fundamental, and technical analysis on cryptocurrency trading success. By integrating these three analytical methods, the research aims to offer a more comprehensive understanding of how each factor contributes to trading decisions and success rates. Research Findings: The results indicate that fundamental analysis made the largest contribution to predicting successful cryptocurrency trading (23.92%), followed by narrative analysis and technical analysis, both contributing 17.94%. Among the variables analyzed, Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and Tokenomic Project were found to have the highest probability of success, at 94.20% and 90.70%, respectively. Theoretical Contribution/Originality: This research contributes to the existing literature by offering a comprehensive framework for improving cryptocurrency trading performance. The study emphasizes the integration of narrative, fundamental, and technical analyses in dealing with high market volatility and inconsistent regulation, providing valuable insights for traders, policymakers, and academic scholars. Keywords: Cryptocurrency, Trading, Narrative Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis