Fundamentals Of Forecasting Cryptocurrency Rates

Abstract

Since 2009, cryptocurrencies being a modern form of electronic means of payment have become widespread in the global financial market. In this regard, a study aimed to find an answer to the question: “Are cryptocurrencies a modern form of money?” was conducted. An analysis of the scientific works of leading economic schools has led to the conclusion that cryptocurrencies are a modern form of private money that performs the main monetary function being a means of payment, which corresponds to the idea of the Austrian economic school of full-fledged means of payment. The study attempts to predict the market rate of the three most popular cryptocurrencies at present being Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple due to the fact that modern cryptocurrencies demonstrate a high level of volatility in their market value, and reliable funds must maintain their purchasing power. The analysis of the cryptocurrency market with regard to the information efficiency has led to the conclusion that cryptocurrencies have been demonstrating instability of qualitative properties over the past five years. The authors proposed to improve the predictive characteristics of the HAR-RV model by additionally calculating the Shannon information entropy of the initial time series to level their insensitivity to unexpected information shocks in the cryptocurrency market being the main drawback of regression models. The study has proved that cryptocurrencies are a promising modern form of electronic money, their market rate is quite predictable, and the popularity of cryptocurrencies and their use in payment transactions will further increase.