Bitcoin Price Prediction Using Blockchain Transaction Data and Machine Learning Models

Abstract

In this work, we utilize the blockchain transactions and financial instruments to pre-dict the Bitcoin price using machine learning. We use three models: Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Decision Tree Regressor and Random Forest Regressor applied on a feature set which includes lagged close prices, 14-day Simple Moving Av-erage (SMA), Relative Strength Index (RSI) and daily confirmed Bitcoin transactions. The data is temporally aligned and pre-processed to maintain temporal coherence, as well as for conversational fluency. Through the results assessment by means of RMSE MAE, MAPE and R², we can found that Random Forest model has results closer to best performance with values of: 264.81 (RMSE); 175.41(MAE); for MAPE is 0.27% and; R² equals to 0.9958. Our findings also lend strong support for the effectiveness of simul-taneously considering not only blockchain-specific market variables but also tradi-tional financial predictors towards improved model performance and generalization. Our findings underscore the importance of raw blockchain transaction data for pre-dicting cryptocurrency prices, and present a new tool for data-based decision making in decentralized finance.