Reversal in Cryptocurrency Returns

Abstract

We document significant reversal in cryptocurrency returns at 8-and 10-week horizons, concentrated in midsize, relatively volatile assets. Using a panel of 70 USDT-quoted tokens on Binance from January 2021 through March 2026, we show that a contrarian strategy of buying past losers and selling past winners, by forming Jegadeesh-Titman (1993) calendar-time overlapping portfolios, earns a 39.6% annualized return (Sharpe 0.96, Newey-West t = 2.10). Reversal is stronger among high-volatility assets, generating a Sharpe ratio of 1.37 (t = 3.19), and is strengthened outside of the largest assets, generating a Sharpe ratio of 1.69 (t = 3.80). The effect is robust across tercile, quintile, and decile sorts; skip period variants; inverse-volatility weighting; and temporal subsamples. A circular block bootstrap with 10,000 replications corroborates the high-volatility result nonparametrically with 95% of Sharpe ratios above 0.67, and the high-versus-low volatility gap positive in 94% of replications. Several economic mechanisms to rationalize these findings are discussed, including the tendency of treasury managers to sell into upswings, and Nagel's (2012) theory that reversal compensates liquidity providers.