Digital Asset Market Structure at a Regulatory Crossroads: Three Post-CLARITY Act Scenarios

Abstract

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) represents one of the most consequential U.S. legislative efforts to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets. As the bill advances through the legislative process, uncertainty surrounding its ultimate enactment remains significant. Rather than focusing on a binary prediction of passage or failure, this paper examines the market-structure implications of three plausible regulatory outcomes. Using a scenario-planning framework, the analysis explores how stablecoins, tokenized commercial bank deposits, decentralized finance (DeFi), and base-layer crypto commodities may evolve under alternative legislative and regulatory paths. The scenarios recognize that federal agencies, courts, financial institutions, and digital asset firms are already adapting their strategies in anticipation of divergent policy environments. Drawing on legislative records, regulatory filings, industry announcements, and legal scholarship, the paper identifies the principal opportunities, risks, and structural shifts associated with each scenario and assesses their implications for the future development of U.S. digital asset markets.