If Cryptocurrency Winter Comes, Can Cryptocurrency Spring Be Far Behind?

Abstract

The cryptocurrency market experiences frequent price changes since it is held mostly as a speculative asset by holders. Terms like cryptocurrency spring, winter, or summer are used to describe a relatively longer persistent period of price movement with a clear overall trend in the cryptocurrency market. This paper examines the business cycle duration of the cryptocurrency market by applying simple linear detrending approaches to 14 major cryptocurrencies. It is observed that most coins have two complete business cycles and a single complete business cycle duration ranges from 38 to 1667 days. The mean and median duration of a full business cycle are approximately 866 and 926 days respectively.