Kriz dönemlerinde geleneksel ve dijital varlıkların performansı: Güvenli liman, hedge ve çeşitlendirici özelliklerinin DCC-GARCH ile değerlendirilmesi

Abstract

Investors may tend to turn to safe-haven assets to avoid high volatility in financial markets and protect themselves from risks during times of uncertainty created by crisis periods. In the study, haven, hedge and diversification characteristics of traditional and digital assets such as gold, silver, US dollar, euro, US 10-year bond, Brent oil, Bitcoin and Ethereum against BIST100, S&P500 and DAX indices were examined using EGARCH (1,1) and DCC-GARCH (1,1) models in seven different crisis periods that have a high impact on global markets, including geopolitical, financial and health crises, using 20-year daily data covering the period 01.01.2005–01.01.2025. The findings indicate that the US dollar has consistently demonstrated strong safe-haven characteristics against the BIST100, S&P 500, and DAX in various crises. The assets that exhibited significant haven characteristics only in one crisis period were gold against the S&P 500, Brent oil, and the Euro against the DAX. The 10-year US bond exhibited safe-haven properties relative to the S&P 500 and DAX during various crisis periods. While no significant results were achieved regarding silver’s haven or hedge characteristics, it was observed that the assets generally played a diversifying role in periods other than those yielding these results. According to EGARCH (1,1) results, Ethereum was identified as a haven candidate against DAX; however, DCC-GARCH (1,1) estimates did not confirm this result.