Adopción institucional y valor de bitcoin

Abstract

The aim of this study is to assess the viability and valuation of Bitcoin as a strategic corporate asset, evaluating its role as a store of value and its implications for financial management. Data were collected from specialized platforms such as investing.com, coinmetrics.io, gold.org, blockchain.com, fredf.org, and coinmarketcap.com as of July 23, 2025, complemented with institutional reports and recent academic literature. The methodology relies on three main approaches: a) gold market–adjusted valuation, b) Hayes’ cost-of-production model, and c) statistical analysis through Pearson’s correlation coefficient, alongside the Stock-to-Flow (SF) model. Results indicate that, assuming a 10% penetration of the investment gold market, Bitcoin’s value would be around USD 114,398, reaching up to USD 560,551 with 49% penetration. The cost-of-production model yielded an estimated value of USD 97,167, consistent with the range reported by the University of Cambridge and close to its market price (USD 118,175). Correlation analysis reveals a strong positive association with the Nasdaq (+0.81) and a negative one with the VIX (–0.61), positioning Bitcoin as a risk asset rather than a safe haven. The SF model highlights Bitcoin’s relative scarcity, with a ratio of 121.14 compared to gold’s 67.58, reinforcing its narrative as 'digital gold.' Overall, the findings suggest that Bitcoin’s strategic potential rests on its programmed scarcity and growing institutional adoption, though its consolidation will depend on sustained demand, lower volatility, and a clearer regulatory framework.