AURORA: Institutional DeFi Market Abuse Surveillance and Systemic Risk Intelligence Framework

Abstract

This paper introduces AURORA, a predictive institutional risk intelligence architecture designed to detect market manipulation and systemic fragility within decentralized finance ecosystems. The framework integrates multi-chain blockchain monitoring, behavioral graph analytics, liquidity stress modeling, and causal verification to identify engineered market abuse and cross-protocol contagion risks. AURORA further translates technical detection outputs into structured compliance classifications aligned with emerging regulatory regimes including the UK Market Abuse Regime for Cryptoassets (MARC) and the EU Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA). The study contributes to financial regulation, market microstructure analysis, and systemic risk modeling by proposing a unified institutional surveillance architecture for decentralized financial markets.