Pandemics and cryptocoins

Abstract

This study examines the effect of pandemic-induced uncertainty on cryptocoins (Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple). It employs the Westerlund and Narayan (2012, 2015) predictive model to examine the predictability of pandemic-induced uncertainty and our model's forecast performance. We examine the role of asymmetry in uncertainty and the sensitivity of our results to the recently-developed Salisu and Akanni (2020) Global Fear Index. Cryptocoins act as a hedge against uncertainty due to pandemics, albeit with reduced hedging effectiveness in the COVID-19 period. Accounting for asymmetry improves predictability and model forecast performance. Our results may be sensitive to the choice of measure of pandemic-induced uncertainty.