Predict the Trend of Indonesian People's Interest in Bitcoin Facing the 2024 Bitcoin Halving Using a Forecasting Algorithm

Abstract

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin is one of the largest investment crypto assets throughout the world with a total market capitalization of 1.35 trillion US Dollars. Bitcoin was created by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009 with a decentralized blockchain system. Indonesia is still ranked 7th in the world in cryptocurrency adoption, which means Indonesia is still behind other countries. The inhibiting factors are poor government regulations and a lack of public education platforms regarding this new cryptocurrency technology. This research aims to analyze and predict trends in Indonesian people's interest in bitcoin in the context of the 2024 bitcoin halving, taking Google Trends data and then predicting it using a double exponential forecasting algorithm. Related data was collected to analyze community interest patterns using the KDD (Knowledge Discovery in Database) method. Searches with the keyword "bitcoin" reached the day of the 2024 bitcoin halving on April 19, 2024. From the dataset obtained from the 2014-2024 period with a total of 121 records, using the double exponential 29 forecasting algorithm produces test and train RMSE values of 7,184 and 14,907. Meanwhile, the train and test MAPE values are 0.313 and 0.861. The model that has been created is then implemented using the Python Stremlit library so that web-based analysis can be carried out. The predicted peak point value in 09-2024 is 48.5 and the lowest point in 08-2025 is 17.9. It is hoped that this trend analysis can help develop the adoption of crypto assets, especially bitcoin, to educate the public about the importance of bitcoin as a future investment asset, and the government needs to play a role in making crypto adoption easier in Indonesia.