The Accuracy of the Tick Rule in the Bitcoin Market

Abstract

The tick rule is one of the most popular trade classification algorithms used when an order initiator in market data is not signed. Using 11.9 million trades of Bitcoin/USD on Bitstamp, this article tests the accuracy of the tick rule in the Bitcoin market. Evidence indicates that the overall success rate of the tick rule is 76.87%. It is also shown that the tick rule is inclined to fail in discerning trade intentions when there is a long period of time between trades. Furthermore, order imbalances computed using the tick rule lack sufficient accuracy in the Bitcoin market.