Exploring the dynamics of connectedness among cryptocurrency, oil shocks, economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and the business conditions index

Abstract

This research investigates the dynamics of connectedness among cryptocurrency and various risk factors, including oil price demand and supply shocks, EPU, GPR, and the ADS business conditions index using the quantile time-frequency connectedness approach. The findings reveal that cryptocurrency behaves as a net receiver of shocks in the short term but transitions to a net transmitter over the long term. Critical sources of both short- and long-term shocks are attributed to oil price demand, supply fluctuations, and GPR. However, during extreme events like the COVID−19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, cryptocurrency, oil shocks, and other indices alternately become net transmitters and receivers of shocks depending on time frames and quantile ranges. During periods of heightened market uncertainty, monitoring the interconnected behavior of these variables is critical for investors and policymakers aiming to predict market shifts and manage risks effectively.