Subnational Loan Allocation and Fiscal Sustainability: An MCDA-Based Approach for Urban Infrastructure Financing in Indonesia

Abstract

Urban infrastructure financing in Indonesia faces a structural funding gap alongside rising subnational fiscal risk under decentralization. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis framework to allocate loans across 50 priority cities in the 2025–2029 National Development Plan. The framework integrated fiscal capacity, debt sustainability, institutional readiness, public investment productivity, and spatial role into three composite indices, namely Soft Gate, Impact, and Priority. Using a weighted additive framework with percentile-based screening, cities were classified into Loan Priority, Blended, Grant, and Selective categories. The results showed that 28 percent qualified as Loan Priority, while 24 percent require blended mechanisms due to fiscal-impact mismatch. In conclusion, the framework enhances fiscal discipline and transparency in subnational borrowing decisions.