Non-linear relationship between digital finance and urban ecological resilience in China

Abstract

Amid intensifying climate change and rapid urbanization, urban ecosystems face unprecedented disturbances. Enhancing urban ecological resilience (UER) is thus a key governance issue. The explosive growth of digital finance (DF) has reshaped capital flows, but its ecological effects are dynamic and stage-specific. This study uses a dynamic nonlinear model to systematically explore the DF-UER relationship. The results reveal that: (1) There exists a U-shaped relationship between DF and UER. In the early stage, DF may negatively impact UER; however, Whereas as DF matures, it positively influences UER, with robust results from various tests. (2) Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the U-shaped relationship between DF and UER is more pronounced in smart city pilot cities, high government ecological attention cities, and cities with a high degree of market integration. (3) Mechanism tests reveal that DF has a U-shaped impact on green capital allocation, renewable energy technology innovation, and industrial structure optimization, consequently leading to a U-shaped effect on UER. (4) Fiscal decentralization and financial regulation strengthen the U-shaped relationship, whereas artificial intelligence tends to weaken it and may even reverse this trend. These findings point out the possible structural friction of DF, and provide valuable insights for supporting China and other economies to balance financial expansion and ecological security.