Exploring the interconnectedness of oil, gold, cryptocurrencies, and economic growth in geopolitical uncertainty: An econometric analysis

Abstract

This study examines the interrelation among gold, oil, and cryptocurrency markets and their implications for economic growth in the context of geopolitical turmoil. Employing panel data from 2000 to 2023 of exporter, importer, and mixed economies, we employ Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) and Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) to ascertain asymmetric as well as dynamic relations. Evidence shows that oil and gold price shocks exert significant effects on growth with geopolitical risk increasing volatility, while cryptocurrencies are heterogeneously resilient in panels. The results provide fresh evidence of cross-asset linkages, risk transmission mechanisms, and provide policy implications for policymakers and investors under volatile geopolitical environments.